Monsoon changes threaten Bay of Bengal: Your favourite fish curry is at risk
A new study published in Nature Geoscience reveals that climate-driven extreme weather events in India's summer monsoon could permanently disrupt the Bay of Bengal's marine productivity, jeopardising food security for millions.Led by researchers from Rutgers University, the University of Arizona, and international collaborators, the analysis of 22,000 years of monsoon and ocean data warns of a 50% decline in surface food availability during intense rainfall or drought periods - a pattern poised to repeat as global warming intensifies monsoon variability.advertisementThe Bay of Bengal, covering less than 1% of the global ocean, supplies nearly 8% of the world's fishery production, including critical species like hilsa, a dietary staple for coastal communities.
By studying fossilised shells of foraminifera-microscopic plankton that record environmental conditions - the team reconstructed historical monsoon impacts.
Stronger monsoons will increase freshwater runoff, while weaker winds fail to counteract stratification. (Photo: Getty)
They found that both abnormally strong and weak monsoons stifled ocean mixing, blocking nutrient flow from deeper waters to surface plankton.During Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,500–15,500 years ago), weak monsoons reduced wind-driven nutrient circulation. Conversely, early Holocene-era heavy rains (10,500–9,500 years ago) created a freshwater 'cap' on the ocean surface, starving plankton of nutrients. These extremes led to collapses in marine productivity, a scenario now projected to recur as climate models predict warmer surface waters and intensified monsoon variability.advertisementOver 150 million people rely on the Bay's fisheries for protein and livelihoods. 'The ocean's ability to support plankton growth is the foundation of the marine food web. Its decline would reduce fish stocks catastrophically,' said Yair Rosenthal, a Rutgers climate scientist and study co-author.Compounding the crisis, artisanal fisheries-which constitute 80% of Bangladesh's marine catch-already face overfishing pressures, pushing stocks below sustainable levels. Modern ocean data and climate models align with past collapses: stronger monsoons will increase freshwater runoff, while weaker winds fail to counteract stratification. 'Both extremes threaten marine resource availability,' emphasized Kaustubh Thirumalai, the study's lead author. For example, the hilsa fishery, vital for regional protein needs, could collapse under repeated productivity crashes.The study points to the urgency of refining climate models and implementing sustainable fisheries policies.As Rosenthal noted, 'These insights can inform strategies to protect coastal resources as climate impacts accelerate'. With the Bay's marine ecosystems at a tipping point, mitigating overfishing and curbing greenhouse emissions are critical to safeguarding this lifeline for future generations.The findings highlight a stark reality: the Bay of Bengal's role as a global food source hangs in the balance, demanding immediate action to avert a climate-driven crisis.
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