Morning Bid: Market focus shifts to Trump tariff countdown
U.S. investors may have been feeling good going into the long Independence Day weekend, but those vibes failed to carry through to Asia.
Optimism over the resilience of the U.S. economy, after much more robust than expected monthly payrolls figures, has been quickly overshadowed by a cloud of uncertainty as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for higher tariff rates looms on July 9.
Despite initial confidence from Trump and his team that there would be a flurry of deals, an agreement with Vietnam announced on Wednesday takes the total so far to just three, including framework agreements with Britain and China.
Trump's approach on tariffs has shifted accordingly: He said letters will start going out to trading partners on Friday with the duties they will pay on trade with the United States.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said a deal with India is close, but talks with Japan and South Korea - which had been touted as likely early successes - have been stalled for weeks.
The deal with Vietnam also risks irking China, with its stipulation of 40% levies on so-called trans-shipments of products basically made elsewhere (i.e., China) in order to receive a "Made in Vietnam" sticker.
Some Asian countries may be hoping they've done enough to address U.S. concerns, and will receive just the baseline 10% tariff in their letters. Thailand, for example, said today it "hopes there will be good news" following trade talks with Washington.
The EU is pushing for an "agreement in principle" ahead of July 9 but, as might be expected from such a sprawling economic bloc, pleasing all parties will be difficult. Brussels is bracing for any outcome, including a return to tit-for-tat tariff escalation.
One point on which European diplomats seem aligned is that tariff relief needs to be immediate, or any deal is off.
Traders and investors also need to mull the broad and long-term impact of Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, now about to become law, and its potential to swell the deficit by $3.4 trillion by some estimates.
Global equities, led by Wall Street, may be trading at all-time peaks, but that could mean there's plenty of room for a drop back to earth if Trump's trade war turns ugly again.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
- U.S. Independence Day holiday
- Germany industrial orders (May)
- France, Italy, Spain industrial output (all May)
- Germany, France, Italy construction PMIs (all June)
Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news?
Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.
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The Guardian
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- The Guardian
LA school district demands inquiry after Ice officers filmed urinating on campus
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The Guardian
39 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Revealed: the far-right, antisemitic men's club network spreading across US
A nationwide US network of dozens of far-right, men-only fraternal clubs has what members describe as 'literally hundreds' of participants who include past and currently serving military personnel, lawyers, civil servants, and prominent antisemitic influencers, a Guardian investigation can reveal. The Old Glory Club (OGC) – which has at least 26 chapters in 20 US states and until now has drawn little attention – exemplifies the alarming rise of organized racist political groups in the past few years but especially during the rise of Donald Trump and his return to the White House. The OGC network has held conferences, meetups and other events. Key members like podcaster Pete Quinones use their platforms to push far-right ideas about Jewish people and immigrants. Other members have used their platforms to respond to political events, and to advocate measures including 'cancellation insurance' for members whose extreme political views might impede their professional lives. Harry Shukman, a researcher at UK anti-fascist non-profit Hope Not Hate, who last month published an exposé on the OGC-affiliated Basketweavers organization in the UK, told the Guardian: 'Groups such as the OGC are a new breed of extremist organisation which aims first to build an offline social network before taking over society.' He added, 'They seek to lower the bar to participating in the far right, and by doing so have proved attractive to a cohort of mostly male members, some of whom have never before undertaken any form of activism.' Heidi Beirich, co-founder and chief strategy officer of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, said the OGC 'appears to be another major new network of racists, too many of which are springing up in the era of Trump'. She said the group was 'pushing violent ideologies, including race hate and antisemitism and has links to prominent figures on the far right'. The OGC was incorporated on 16 June 2023, according to Virginia company records, but the organization took shape over more than a year through in-person conferences and online networks. The Old Glory Club Substack began publishing in October 2022, with an X account launching the same month. Podcast aggregators show Old Glory Club podcast content appearing online by November 2022 at the latest. At that time however, the organization appeared to be conceived as mostly a collaborative effort at content production. In a November 2022 podcast the pseudonymous YouTuber and central OGC figure known as Charlemagne told far-right podcaster Auron Macintyre – now an on-air personality at Glenn Beck-founded Blaze Media – that OGC was 'a group of American gentlemen who have decided to organize a social club … to publish content and … try and figure out a new political settlement for Americans'. Also in October 2022, another pseudonymous YouTuber, the Prudentialist, appealed for donations to OGC in a podcast, saying that the money 'will one day be used for mutual aid for our friends that get doxed or fired or affected by natural disasters and other acts of God'. By April 2023, the Prudentialist was presenting OGC in podcasts as part of an effort by the far right to 'create networks of patronage [and] political support' in order to 'maintain not just some semblance of power, but … anti-fragility against a state that wants you broke, dead or transitioned' He added that OGC would offer opportunities for members to 'meet, host conferences and … to support people in the future who like that firefighter in Virginia was fired for simply donating to Kyle Rittenhouse's legal defense fund', an apparent reference to the fallout from 2021 Guardian reporting on donors to Rittenhouse's legal defense whose identities were revealed in leaked data from a Christian crowdfunding site. Other key members advocated a strategy of decentralization for the far-right to create enduring activist institutions. In a 10 July 2022 republication of his speech at that year's rightwing Tennessee Scyldings conference, charter member and frequent OGC spokesman Ryan Turnipseed lamented the fact that Spain's authoritarian fascist dictator Francisco Franco – a touchstone for the contemporary far right – had 'failed to secure his line of succession' despite propaganda and purges. 'This is a lesson we need to learn,' he added. He proposed a decentralized network of groups, which would allow 'us to draw upon the knowledge and abilities of these groups. We no longer have to wait on a Caesar or a Franco to 'unite the right' into some effective fighting force. Instead, we can be effective with what we have now.' Others stressed the importance of in-person meetups, and directly referenced similar initiatives overseas. According to a July 2022 Substack post by the pseudonymous 'Red Hawk' inviting applications for local chapters, chapters must consist of at least 'five American men over the age of 18', and meet quarterly and annual reporting requirements on membership and finances. Local chapters and the organization as a whole are overseen by an OGC central committee, according to the post and subsequent podcasts. The organization's core members have orchestrated four annual conferences, with the last two happening under the OGC banner. According to speakers on a recorded after-action report on the most recent OGC in-person conference held in May, OGC membership has burgeoned in the last year. They claimed that OGC now has 'literally hundreds' of members, and 'We're so large at this point that we've passed the point where the Central Committee is going to be able to know all or even most of the individual members'. 'Altogether we've built a very, very effective organization' It is not yet clear how the names in company records for the umbrella organization and its chapters correspond with all of the online aliases of key members. But those records do reveal that members include prominent far-right influencers, current and former US military members and police officers, court officers and contractors with US government security clearances. The Guardian has contacted all named members for comment. Turnipseed is a charter member of the OGC umbrella organization, a frequent contributor at its Substack, a frequent podcaster, and has spoken at OGC and Skyldings conferences. Previously, Turnipseed was excommunicated in May 2024 by First Lutheran church in his native Ponca City, Oklahoma, after a viral 2023 Twitter thread criticizing the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod's new catechism for accommodating progressive political positions, briefly making him a cause celebre for the online far right. In February 2023, Turnipseed had been identified by antifascist researchers as a member of what they called a rising 'white supremacist faction within the Lutheran faith'. Later that month the president of the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod called for the excommunication of those 'propagating radical and unchristian 'alt-right' views'. Not long after his excommunication, Immanuel Lutheran church in Wichita, Kansas, defied the ban by accepting Turnipseed into membership. Other OGC chapter members have connections with the wider world of rightwing politics. Matthew Pearson of Tampa Bay, Florida, is listed on the initial filings of the Yellow Dog Pack, a Florida OGC chapter. Pearson is a writer for two Christian Nationalist publications, American Reformer and Truthscript, where he has praised a book that says Christians should be anti-gay, and commended the social theories of Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt. Other members are connected with the armed forces and defense contractors. Evan Dale Schalow, 25, of Midlothian, Virginia, is listed as a charter member of the OGC in Virginia company records. According to his LinkedIn bio, Schalow has also been a horizontal construction engineer in the Virginia national guard since 2022 and before that he was an ROTC cadet while at Longwood University from 2020. According to the same biography he has US government secret security clearance. The Guardian emailed the Virginia national guard to confirm Schalow's service but received no response. Harvey Pretlow Rawls III is named as a charter member of the Old Glory Club and the Vetus Dominicum Club chapter in Virginia company records. According to his LinkedIn page, Rawls is also a systems engineer at HII, the US's largest military shipbuilder. The same page indicates that he has an active secret clearance, the second tier of US security clearances, which can take up to a year to investigate and approve. The Guardian contacted HII about his role at the company. Michael R Gibbs of Phenix City, Alabama, meanwhile, is the only person listed on the initial filing of the Magnolia League, an OGC chapter in Alabama. According to his LinkedIn page he served as a sergeant in the US Marine Corps between 2008 and 2013, and then as a deputy in the Muscogee county sheriff's office between 2014 and 2016. The same page says he is now a buyer for firearms company Remington. Two members of OGC Indiana chapter the Tippecanoe Society, meanwhile, are lawyers who have spent time in government service. Kyle Lindskog of Zionsville, Indiana, is now a freelance attorney, according to his LinkedIn biography, but between 2015 and 2018 he was a city attorney in St Petersburg, Florida. Paul Scott Lunsford Jr of Carmel is an intellectual property attorney at a firm he founded, but between 2006 and 2010 he was an operations officer in the US navy. Beirich, the extremism expert, said: 'The fact that OGC members apparently include current and former military members and police officers, and similar government officials, is a particular cause for alarm, and frankly shocking.' She added: 'This may ultimately pose a national security threat right at the time when the Trump administration is abandoning efforts to root extremists out of the military while hiring racists, antisemites and Qanon believers to staff the administration.' The OGC Substack reflects the broader preoccupations of its members: a mix of far right causes and racist politics. They includeneo-Confederate pleas for the redemption of Confederate symbols and the Confederate cause and a laudatory discussion of the 1967 documentary of post-colonial Africa, Africa Addio, which film critic Roger Ebert once called 'a brutal, dishonest, racist film'. There are claims that white Evangelical Christians are the west's 'most hated minority', and a reproduced Dave Greene speech in which he characterizes 'Jewish Talmudic law' as 'an attempt to trick God', and telling his audience that they and the 'Jewish community' are 'on the opposite ends of this age's struggle'. In many ways, however, the Substack appears to give a more acceptable face to the politics that key members express in cruder terms elsewhere. For example, Peter R Quinones – a self-described 'charter member' of the group – is listed as an officer on the initial filing of the foundational Old Glory Club. Quinones is a broadly influential figure on the far right. His Substack is the 78th most popular Substack newsletter on US politics, according to that platform's figures. His podcast was 142nd most popular in US political podcasts according to data from podcast tracking service Rephonic, putting it roughly on par with shows by CNN's Kaitlin Collins and Andrew Sullivan, and ahead of podcasts by Jim Acosta and Candace Owens. He has issued a regular podcast since 2017, first titled Free Man Over the Wall, and later under its present title, The Pete Quinones Show. During that time and continuing up to the present, he has unleashed hundreds of hours of content marked by racism and antisemitism, which has included urging listeners to take direct action against Jewish and non-white neighbors. In a podcast last month in response to US attacks on Iran – which he attributed entirely to the malign influence of Israel – Quinones urged listeners to respond by simply boycotting businesses owned by Jews, and took sideswipes at Indians. 'It's Jews,' he began. 'You can't live with them. You can't allow them in. If you allow them in, you have to suppress them. But it's better not to allow them in.' Quinones continued: 'Don't do business with them. Do as much business as you can with Heritage Americans'. 'Heritage Americans' is a phrase that, according to rightwing commentator Mike Coté, the so-called New Right uses to describe 'the ethnic population of the United States prior to 1940, with a strong emphasis on Anglo-Protestant Europeans' in an expression of 'European-inflected 'blood-and-soil' nationalism' which is opposed to older 'creedal' versions of American nationalism. In the same broadcast Quinones also said 'Don't do business with Indians,' adding: 'We got an app down here that some of the guys at the Alabama Old Glory Club are doing, which is to show which gas stations and hotels are not owned by Indians here.' Quinones later encouraged listeners to likewise 'build an app for your local area, which shows where there's, are owned by heritage Americans, or at least stuff that's not owned by Indians. And you may want to include another group in that.' In other recent podcasts, Quinones has proffered elaborate anti-Semitic conspiracy theories often promoted by white supremacist groups. In one podcast he worried about the far-right being persecuted for its beliefs about Jews. 'You start, you know, persecuting people who are you know, starting to ask the Jewish question,' he said. The 'Jewish question' is an antisemitic framing of Jewish presence in society as a problem requiring a 'solution,' and has historically been used to justify persecution and genocide, including in Nazi Germany. Since 2022, Quinones has also collaborated in making content for the Old Glory Club network, and has promoted it on his own show. On an Old Glory Club post-election livestream in November, Quinones referred to Black voters with a racial slur favored by white nationalists, saying: 'The North American street ape is hopeless.' He used the same slur a month later in response to a video of a black teenager. Shukman, the Hope Not Hate, researcher said: 'The Old Glory Club and its affiliates like the Basketweavers may claim to provide community, but the truth is they conceal a much more sinister aim.' He added: 'We have seen that the leaders of these groups can be vicious and degrading to junior members, especially maladjusted young men. The OGC's senior figures also have a track record of making deeply racist statements and affiliating with known far-right activists. '
The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
Donald Trump's UFC stunt is more than a circus. It's authoritarian theatre
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The event would have been a chance for the organization and its oligarch to ingratiate themselves to Putin, a known MMA fan who had previously attended their shows. Logistical issues, including security concerns and layers of bureaucratic red tape, rendered the event impossible at the time. But the incident stuck with me nonetheless as an example of the political undercurrent flowing through the sport. That memory became especially relevant as US president Donald Trump announced plans to host a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) event at the White House to commemorate the nation's 250th birthday next year. Speaking to a crowd of supporters during a Salute to America event in Iowa Thursday, Trump said: 'Does anybody watch UFC? The great Dana White? We're going to have a UFC fight. We're going to have a UFC fight – think of this – on the grounds of the White House. We have a lot of land there.' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the news during the press briefing, adding that the president was 'dead serious' about hosting a UFC event at the official residence and workplace of the president. The announcement comes as no surprise given Trump longstanding relationship with the UFC, its current owner Ari Emanuel, and its CEO Dana White. Over the past few years, Trump has frequently attended UFC events, basking in the admiration of the young, predominantly male crowd. He cultivated relationships with fighters, leveraging their support to portray himself as a symbolic strongman. He embraced the UFC's culture of defiance, machismo and spectacle to help buttress his image as a rebel against liberal norms. It has also hastened the replacement of America's conventional political culture with an abrasive new blend of entertainment and confrontational politics, perfectly embodied by both Trump and White. The UFC CEO stumped for Trump at three Republican National Conventions and a slew of campaign rallies over the past eight years. He traveled with the president on Air Force One and produced a propaganda documentary on Trump entitled Combatant-in-Chief. And when Trump won the 2024 presidential election, it was White who took the stage at his victory party – because, naturally, Trump needed his fight promoter to seal the deal. For the UFC, its association with Trump has granted the once-renegade promotion a new kind of political legitimacy and influence. It also set it apart from other sports leagues through its unapologetically conservative posture. The UFC is even sponsoring the United States Semiquincentennial dubbed America 250, joining the likes of Amazon, the Coca-Cola Company, Oracle and Walmart. Since taking office in January, Trump has attended two separate UFC events. He most recently attended UFC 316 in June just hours after signing a memo ordering the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles County after Ice immigration raids sparked mass protests. He nevertheless enjoyed a standing ovation from the fans in attendance, and glowing endorsements from the fighters, one of whom even kneeled before Trump. UFC champion Kayla Harrison embraced him, planted a kiss on his cheek, and wrapped her championship belt around his waist as his family and supporters looked on in delight. It was a spectacle befitting the strongman Trump imagines himself to be. Sign up to The Recap The best of our sports journalism from the past seven days and a heads-up on the weekend's action after newsletter promotion Which is why Trump's plan to stage a UFC event at the White House makes perfect sense. It is the natural climax of a partnership in which the UFC has become the stage for Maga mythology. It carries shades of fascist Italy under Benito Mussolini, particularly its obsession with masculinity, spectacle, and nationalism – but with a modern, American twist. Fascist Italy used rallies, parades and sports events to project strength and unity. Sports, especially combat sports, were used as tools to cultivate Mussolini's ideal masculinity and portray Italy as a strong and powerful nation. Similarly, Trump has relied on the UFC to project his tough-guy image, and to celebrate his brand of nationalistic masculinity. From name-dropping champions who endorse him to suggesting a tournament that would pit UFC fighters against illegal migrants, Trump has repeatedly found ways to make UFC-style machismo a part of his political brand. Since returning to office in January, Trump's presidency has been marked by a purge of federal agencies, crackdowns on dissent and immigration, and hollowing out institutions once designed as guardrails against abuses in presidential power. Loyalty to Trump, rather than the Constitution and the American people, has become the primary litmus test for political advancement. Meanwhile, sports have emerged as a central feature of his administration, advancing his policies while projecting a cult of personality and the celebration of violence. All of these are the hallmarks of authoritarianism. There was once a time when the US could point to the authoritarian pageantry of regimes like Mussolini's Italy and claim at least some moral distance. That line is no longer visible. What was once soft power borrowed from strongmen is now being proudly performed on America's own front lawn. Karim Zidan writes a regular newsletter on the intersection of sports and authoritarian politics.
