These are America's 10 weakest state economies most at risk in a recession

CNBC

12-07-2025

The odds of a recession may be falling, but states appear to be betting that corporate leaders are still nervous.
An analysis of all 50 states' economic development marketing efforts — part of CNBC's annual America's Top States for Business study — finds that a strong economy is the most frequently mentioned selling point to attract corporate site selectors these days. That includes factors like job growth, fiscal stability, and a wealth of other corporate headquarters. State web sites mentioned economic factors 222 times in our analysis, well ahead of the next most cited factor, infrastructure, at 203.
Site selection consultant Tom Stringer, a principal and leader of the site selection and incentives practice at Grassi Advisors in New York, said that emphasis on economic strength and stability stands to reason.
"You want to look for an environment where there is consistency," he said. "That is very important to businesses, because the stability allows you to operate with a degree of certainty, a degree of cost control, and it also talks to the health of the economy."
Because the Top States overall methodology prioritizes the factors that states are talking about most, the Economy category carries the most weight in this year's competitiveness study.
To score each state's economy, we considered traditional measures such as state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, and the strength of the local housing market. But with the Trump administration seeking to slash federal spending and raise tariffs, we also considered how dependent each state is on the federal government. And we considered each state's exposure to a trade war, using data compiled for us by Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington, D.C.-based research firm.
Some states enter these uncertain times in a position of strength. But by the numbers, these ten states are the most vulnerable in a downturn.
The Beaver State's economy relies heavily on international trade. It makes up nearly one-quarter of the state's GDP. And nearly 14 percent of that international goods trade is with China, leaving Oregon seriously exposed in a trade war.
"Exports and manufacturing play outsized roles in the state, so trade tensions will be borne disproportionately," said the state's most recent official revenue forecast, released in May.
That forecast stops short of calling for a recession, but it predicts "near stagnation" of the state's economy, which was already not going great guns heading into the turmoil. Economic growth last year was among the slowest in the nation.
2025 Economy Score: 198 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D+)
GDP (2024): $265.1 billion (+1.2%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.6%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA1 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 32%
International goods trade (2024): $61.4 billion (23.2% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: Nike
The Mountain State's economy did show some healthy growth last year, but that may be coming to an end for now, according to Sean O'Leary, senior policy analyst at the West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy. In a blog post in May, O'Leary wrote that federal job cuts are starting to show up in the economy of a state with more than 17,000 federal jobs — about 2.5% of the state's workforce. Unemployment has fallen in West Virginia, but that has more to do with people leaving the workforce than workers finding jobs. Employment barely grew last year, and jobs have begun to decline in 2025. Meanwhile, deep tax cuts enacted in 2023 with subsequent cuts each year have had a limited impact on growth, O'Leary said, while reducing state revenue.
"As we continue on into the year, the flat job growth, weakening labor force, and proposed federal program changes like cuts to Medicaid should raise concern for policymakers," O'Leary said.
2025 Economy Score: 195 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D+)
GDP (2024): $83.7 billion (+3.5%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.2%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 28%
International goods trade (2024): $9.6 billion (11.6% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None
The Peace Garden State has one of the strongest balance sheets of any state — it could operate for more than 235 days on its fund balances alone, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts. That's longer than any other state except Wyoming. Those reserves might come in handy based on the rest of North Dakota's economic picture, which is not pretty. North Dakota's economy contracted last year, while the national economy grew by 2.8%. It doesn't help — indeed it hurts — that the price of North Dakota crude oil has been down around than 15% from its high, falling dangerously close to the breakeven price of around $65 per barrel. The state energy regulator said in May that oil producers are likely to take more rigs out of production as the year goes on.
2025 Economy Score: 194 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D+)
GDP (2024): $59.9 billion (–0.7%)
Job Growth (2024): 1.5%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA1 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 31%
International goods trade (2024): $12.4 billion (20.7% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None
Honestly, The Land of Lincoln's has a lot going for it, economically. It is home to more S&P 500 companies than all but three states (California, New York and Texas). It is a magnet for foreign direct investment. Gov. JB Pritzker just signed the state's seventh consecutive balanced budget, which will bring the state's rainy day fund to nearly $2.5 billion by the end of this fiscal year. Perhaps best of all, the state is among the least dependent on Washington — federal funds comprise just 19% of state spending, less than any other state.
The trouble is that Illinois dug itself into such a deep fiscal hole over the years that it can't just dig itself out overnight. Pritzker touts Illinois' nine consecutive credit rating upgrades on his watch, but Illinois still has the worst credit rating of any state, according to Moody's. Despite progress in recent years, Illinois still faces more than $140 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. Add the fact that the state faces serious exposure in a trade war, and you get an economy that remains deeply troubled even if it is moving in the right direction.
2025 Economy Score: 188 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D–)
GDP (2024): $895.3 billion (+1.1%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.7%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): A3 Positive
Share of state spending from federal funds: 19%
International goods trade (2024): $282.5 billion (31.6% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: Abbott Laboratories, Deere, McDonald's
The Ocean State's economy grew solidly in 2024, but it still not inspiring a ton of confidence among investors and entrepreneurs. Rhode Island ranks 35th in foreign direct investment as a percentage of its GDP, based on data from the U.S. Commerce Department. And it ranks 47th for new business formations, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Only a small percentage of the state's international trade is with China, which could help blunt the impact of a trade war. But the state is heavily dependent on Washington, leaving it vulnerable to federal budget cuts.
2025 Economy Score: 180 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D–)
GDP (2024): $65.3 billion (+3.2%)
Job Growth (2024): 1.1%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 40%
International goods trade (2024): $14.3 billion (21.9% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: CVS Health, Hasbro
The Land of Enchantment's economy stands to lose big as the Trump administration slashes the size of the federal government. Federal funds account for a whopping 43% of state spending. And, heading into the DOGE era, New Mexico was home to more than 22,000 federal employees in a workforce of less than 900,000. New Mexico is a popular place for new business formations — in the top five, according to the Census Bureau. But they don't seem to last long. An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Simply Business, a national insurance marketplace, found that new businesses in New Mexico had the second lowest survival rate — after Minnesota — when considering the fate of businesses one, two and three years after startup.
2025 Economy Score: 177 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D–)
GDP (2024): $112.8 billion (+2.2%)
Job Growth (2024): 1.1%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Positive
Share of state spending from federal funds: 43%
International goods trade (2024): $19.3 billion (17.1% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None
While The Pelican State does not have a large federal workforce, fully half of state spending is funded by the federal government — more than any other state. That puts Louisiana in a bad spot when it comes to the potential effect of federal budget cuts. More than a third of Louisiana residents rely on Medicaid for health coverage, and the majority of that is paid for by Washington. Even before the size of the federal cuts began to take shape, state lawmakers began bracing for impact. State Senate President Cameron Henry said last month that lawmakers postponed consideration of tax cuts until the scope of the federal cuts becomes clear. Louisiana derives a large portion of its economy from international trade, though only a small portion of that economic activity comes from China.
2025 Economy Score: 173 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: F)
GDP (2024): $256.4 billion (+3.1%)
Job Growth (2024): 1%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 50%
International goods trade (2024): $100 billion (39% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: Entergy
These are uncertain times in the heartland, as any farmer in The Sunflower State will tell you. Tight credit, declining land values and crop prices, and the prospect of higher tariffs all have the rural economy under stress. The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, which covers Kansas along with Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, and parts of New Mexico and Missouri, said in May that a one percent drop in farmland prices in Kansas in the first quarter of this year contributed to what it called a "subdued" farm economy. That filters through to the rest of the state, and it is a continuation from last year, when growth in Kansas was sluggish.
2025 Economy Score: 142 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: F)
GDP (2024): $185.7 billion (+1%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.7%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 31%
International goods trade (2024): $30.6 billion (16.5% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None
The Magnolia State depends heavily on the federal government, with nearly half of its state budget coming from Washington and a large number of federal jobs relative to its overall workforce. Plus the state derives nearly one third of its GDP from international trade, making it vulnerable to higher tariffs. Nonetheless, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is pushing forward with a plan to phase out the state income tax over time, though the same bill he signed in March raises gasoline taxes. Mississippi saw solid job growth and respectable economic growth last year. But the headwinds it faces now are formidable.
2025 Economy Score: 130 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: F)
GDP (2024): $122.4 billion (+2.4%)
Job Growth (2024): 1.3%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA2 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 46%
International goods trade (2024): $35.5 billion (29% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None
The Last Frontier's last place economy is a major reason it also finishes at the bottom overall in CNBC's annual competitiveness ranking. Alaska's fortunes are inexorably linked to the price of oil, and Alaska North Slope crude is down significantly in the past year.
Alaska's fortunes are also closely tied to the federal government, with one of the largest federal workforces of any state relative to its overall workforce. Efforts to diversify Alaska's economy go back decades, and they have never had much success. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has been pushing the idea of leasing the state's vast public lands for underground carbon storage, but it has been slow to get off the ground. Another idea is less about diversification than it is about getting more out of the state's petroleum resources. The Trump administration is backing a long sought after natural gas pipeline alongside the Trans Alaska oil pipeline to monetize a natural byproduct of crude production. But the economics of the project are tricky, again because oil prices are so low.
2025 Economy Score: 110 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: F)
GDP (2024): $54.9 billion (+1.5%)
Job Growth (2024): 2.7%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody's): AA3 Positive
Share of state spending from federal funds: 40%
International goods trade (2024): $9.6 billion (17.5% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: None