A break in the trade clouds lifted consumers' spirits in May
Americans felt a whole lot better about prices and the job market in May, a month that featured a détente in the trade war between the US and China.
Consumers' year-ahead expectations for inflation tumbled in May by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday.
It was the biggest monthly sinking of near-term inflation expectations since November 2022, when price hikes slowed much more than expected and the Federal Reserve delivered another heavy-handed effort to curb decades-high inflation.
The May survey appeared to mark a more elated moment for consumers in the emotional roller coaster ride they've been on since President Donald Trump enacted sweeping actions, notably a frenetic domestic trade policy of escalating import taxes on many materials and products that come in to the US.
Inflation expectations also declined (though not as sharply) at the three- and five-year time horizons, to 3% and 2.6%, respectively, New York Fed data showed.
The Federal Reserve closely monitors gauges of near-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations as those could be self-fulfilling prophecies for consumers: If people think prices will be higher in the future, they might spend more now or even demand higher wages. In turn, businesses faced with higher costs might end up raising prices as a result.
Economists wholly expect that high tariffs will result in higher prices for consumers, but how much and to what extent they become inflationary remains to be seen.
The tariffs, and the fluctuating nature of Trump's negotiations, have driven uncertainty higher and sentiment to near-record lows. Consumers haven't just been anxious about higher prices, they're worried about jobs: The New York Fed's April survey, for example, showed that expectations for the unemployment rate to increase hit the highest level since the early days of the pandemic.
Those fears have been quelled for now.
In May, the mean perceived probability of the nation's jobless rate being higher than it is now dropped 3.3 percentage points to 40.8%. And people's own job security perceptions improved as well, with job separation expectations dropping 0.5 percentage points to 14.8%.
Survey respondents also felt more optimistic about their chances of finding a job if they found themselves unemployed, and they also felt an inkling of improvement in their incomes rising (the median expected growth in household income nudged up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%).
The May survey showed improvement across household finance expectations, including slightly better access to credit and less of a probability of a missed debt payment.
Still, Monday's report showed that one pain point continues to be persistent for consumers: The grocery store run.
The year-ahead expected change in food prices increased 0.4 percentage point to 5.5%, the highest rate since October 2023.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Associated Press
10 minutes ago
- Associated Press
AP PHOTOS: Bruce Springsteen's Berlin concert
BERLIN (AP) — American rock star Bruce Springsteen, long a political opponent of President Donald Trump, performed before tens of thousands fans at a Berlin stadium where he denounced the U.S. administration as 'corrupt, incompetent and treasonous'. ___ This is a photo gallery curated by AP photo editors.
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's first term shows why markets are cautious on the China trade deal
The stock market was largely unmoved by the trade agreement the US struck with China. Market pros say investors expect the trade war to unfold much as it did during Trump's first term. The US and China made scant progress on key issues in their 2018-2019 trade dispute. The stock market has been encouraged by easing tensions between the US and China in recent weeks, but investors were largely unmoved by the announcement of a trade deal between the superpowers on Tuesday. US stock futures failed to climb on news of the deal late Tuesday evening. While markets are edging higher on Wednesday, that's largely because the consumer price index report for May showed inflation was tamer than expected at 2.4% year-over-year. Here's where major indexes stood at 10:20 a.m. ET: S&P 500: 6,055.26, up 0.28% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,997.65, up 0.31% (+130.78 points) Nasdaq Composite: 19,788.36, up 0.37% On the trade front, observers say it's looking more likely that the trade war will shake out like it did during President Donald Trump's first term, with talk of constructive deals even as tensions remain elevated. Simply put, investors see a long and winding path ahead, and knee-jerk reactions to trade announcements have largely subsided since the chaos of "Liberation Day" in April. The framework agreement announced on Tuesday outlines how the two nations will continue trade talks. Importantly, it involves China allowing exports of rare earth minerals, while the US eases up on restrictions for exports of advanced tech to China, like semiconductors. This embedded content is not available in your region. The reaction is far more muted than how the market reacted last month, when stocks popped after the US struck a rough framework deal with China that lowered tariffs between the nations for 90 days. Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Business Insider that markets are reacting to trade talks similarly to when the US-China trade war first kicked off in 2018. He pointed to regular pullbacks in stocks during Trump's first term as traders digested the lack of progress in US-China negotiations. "We still have that muscle memory from Trump 1.0, that dealing with China is difficult and there's a multitude of issues," Hogan said. "I don't think we're going to solve this in short order and likely never solve it in the longer term." He added that markets are likely waiting for a more positive catalyst, pointing to more than 100 nations that have yet to strike a trade deal with the US. Peter Berezin, the chief global strategist at BCA Research, said the framework made only small progress on negotiations with China. "I would say that the 'deal' in London simply restores things to how they were right after Geneva," he told BI in an email. He added that he expected tariffs on China to remain high "for the foreseeable future." Strategists at Deutsche Bank also said that tariff talks appear to mirror the 2018-2019 period, when the US and China didn't make much headway in resolving key issues. Back then, the US said that China had unfair trade practices related to industries like agriculture and manufacturing. It also said China had unfairly transferred technology and stolen intellectual property from the US. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the agreement announced Tuesday skipped over fentanyl-related tariffs that Trump implemented against China earlier this year. "So while the mood music has stayed positive, investors may be wary of the pattern that emerged during the previous US-China trade talks in 2018-19," strategists wrote. "So there's perhaps a little disappointment this morning that we haven't yet got a bigger announcement." The agreement also appeared to lack detail that markets were looking for, David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation, wrote in a note. "The big question is what kind of trade deals can the US negotiate that will be good enough to get the indices to fresh records?" he said. US stocks have whipsawed this year amid the turmoil surrounding tariffs and incremental news of trade agreements between the US and other countries. Indexes have erased their steep losses since the April 2 tariff announcements, with major averages now positive year-to-date. Read the original article on Business Insider
Forbes
13 minutes ago
- Forbes
What The CPI Inflation Numbers Mean For The Future
The Consumer Price Index numbers for May came out on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted number was up 0.1% in May, a drop from April's 0.2%. except for March, it was the lowest monthly inflation figure since July 2024. Over the last 12 months, inflation was 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. There is volatility over time, but also a downward trend line, even if it hasn't dropped fast enough for people's tastes. Below is a graph from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, showing year-over-year comparisons. Year-over-year changes in the CPI Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The news was good, at least in theory and at a high level. At a more detailed look, perhaps not. Other issues — tariffs, rising deficit spending, and spending cuts for important common good activities — combine with inflation to create greater uncertainty in the near future and the potential for a recession. Here Are The CPI Details That Affect You CPI at the headline level sounds good. Details are, on the whole, more discouraging. Here are some product categories where inflation was much higher: All are necessities, if not for everyone, for many millions. Other items helped keep the headline inflation down: The moderating factors don't necessarily remove the burden of the items with greater inflation, depending on how households spend and experience inflation. Near Future Effects On Inflation 'Shelter and energy are going to keep the disinflation trend intact,' wrote Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, in a note. 'Prices are moving down in two of the largest categories, so investors should expect further declines in inflation in the coming months. 'However, CPI remains above 2% and even though the tariff rates are going to be less than originally feared, after they are implemented, they will further increase the cost of goods,' wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in a second note. 'Because of this and the tariff pause that's scheduled to be lifted next month, we are still cautious, but many of the risks that were present in early April, appear to be receding at this time.' As Oxford Economics noted, the May CPI data have been 'encouraging, but unlikely the new norm.' For example, the administration announced a temporary trade truce — again — with China following talks in London. This time, tariffs will be 55%. That's a blended number and includes 20% tariffs on fentanyl, a 10% reciprocal tariffs, and then an average 25% for tariffs already in place before this year, according to a MarketWatch report. The congressional spending bill is likely going to send spending and the deficit up, which will also provide inflationary pressure. While the headline numbers sound like a reprieve, it probably won't be ultimately.
