Surprise contenders, the Blue Jays go all-in with deadline deals

New York Times

3 days ago

Trade details: Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Shane Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians for RHP Khal Stephen
Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Louie Varland and Ty France from the Minnesota Twins for OF Alan Roden and LHP Kendry Rojas
The Blue Jays went for it, which their fans have been asking the front office to do for an age at this point, trading three of their top prospects — albeit not their top two tradeable ones — to bring in two relievers, a bench bat and maybe a very good starter.
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Shane Bieber is that last player, currently on rehab assignment as he finishes his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He throwing well in Double A so far with his slider looking sharp and the fastball maybe a little less lively than before. He's nearly back, with four minor-league starts so far, the longest a four-inning outing the other day for Akron where he threw 59 pitches. He walked one in his second rehab start in the Arizona Complex League, and that's it so far, a 2.4 percent walk rate on the season. I don't know how much he'll be able to pitch — it seems unlikely that he'll be going 100+ pitches in any games this year, although I am truly just speculating here — but I would expect him to be effective whenever he does pitch in the majors this year.
Right-hander Louie Varland was wildly homer-prone as a starter for the Twins, so they finally conceded and moved him to relief in September of last year. He's been dynamite this year, with a 2.02 ERA/2.89 FIP in 49 innings, thanks to a 5.7 percent walk rate and just three homers allowed in that span — for comparison's sake, he allowed 16 homers in 68 innings in 2023, mostly coming as a starter. He's consistently in the upper 90s with a spike curveball that looks like it dies as it approaches the plate, generating whiffs and some ugly swings, too. With Varland and Seranthony Domínguez — acquired on Wednesday — they've dramatically improved the right side of their bullpen, and Varland gives them another option for the highest-leverage spots.
The Blue Jays also picked up Ty France, for some reason.
The price for these deals and the Domínguez one was fairly significant, though, as they sent out three of their top five pitching prospects — I'd have Trey Yesavage first for them and Johnny King second, if you're wondering — and a solid fourth outfielder in Alan Roden. Roden, who went to the Twins, didn't hit well in his brief MLB debut this year, but then went back to Triple A and raked again, with more walks than strikeouts and a huge platoon split. He hits right-handers well enough to be the strong side of a platoon in the majors or a really good fourth outfielder.
Left-hander Kendry Rojas, who also headed to the Twins, just debuted in Triple A on Wednesday night and got hit around, but he'd thrown well prior to that, including a four-start stretch in Double A where he struck out 30 and walked two in 18 2/3 innings. His velocity is up again this year, 93-96 now, with life to it, with a 55 (out of the 20-80 scouting scale) slider and solid-average changeup. He's probably a fourth starter if he stays healthy, which is a big question; he's never topped 84 innings in a season and missed the first two months of this year with an oblique injury.
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Right-hander Khal Stephen went to Cleveland in the Bieber deal, a one-for-one swap. He's very polished, working with three pitches and at least 55 control, coming from a high slot that does make him pretty north-south. He gets good spin on a slider that I think is an average or better pitch, but I've had scouts and analysts grade it below that, and his changeup is at least average, as well. I don't think there's a ton of upside here, but he's almost certainly a big-league starter. He just went on the IL with a 'mild' shoulder impingement, which, whatever you say, doc.
That's a decent chunk of prospect change for the Jays to give up. They did cash in on Juaron Watts-Brown breaking out to some extent this year to acquire Domínguez, and I could certainly see the argument that neither Rojas nor Stephen is any kind of sure thing given their IL stints this year. It's also in service of the Jays pushing not just to make the playoffs but to win the AL East and try to advance in October, which all of these pitching acquisitions should do — Bieber more than the others, if he's able.
I think the Twins did well here, and the Guardians will probably make Stephen into some sort of 0.5 percent walk rate god, but credit the Jays for trading some real prospects where it seems like every other non-Padres team wouldn't do so.
(Top photo of Bieber: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)