Hurricane Erin strengthens to a fierce Category 5 storm in the Atlantic

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Hurricane Erin on Saturday strengthened into a fearsome Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph as the storm traveled west over the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane is not expected to make a direct hit on the United States, but it will still drive dangerous surf conditions along the East Coast.
"We still expect this to eventually make a more northward turn and stay offshore of the East Coast of the United States. So that certainly is good news when dealing with a storm this powerful," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA TODAY.
Under the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Category 5 hurricanes are the strongest possible, with minimum winds of 157 mph.
On the afternoon of Aug. 16, Erin was passing to the north of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean and was just over 200 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Erin is only the fifth Category 5 hurricane on record to form this early in the hurricane season and the only Category 5 observed outside the Gulf or Caribbean this early in the year, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season on average forms on about Aug. 11.
Where is Hurricane Erin? Storm path tracker
As of 2 p.m. on Aug. 16, Erin was located about 110 miles north of Anguilla, one of the most northward of the Leeward Islands, and 205 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico. It was moving west at about 16 mph with wind speeds of 160 mph.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Erin strengthened rapidly and is expected to grow
Erin formed as a hurricane on Aug. 15. It was the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, and quickly became the first major hurricane as well. A major hurricane is one that reaches at least Category 3 status.
"(B)y the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic," the hurricane center said.
Erin's hurricane force winds had a mean diameter of 43 miles on Aug. 16 but are expected to increase to 132 miles in diameter by Aug. 19, while its tropical storm force winds are forecast to reach a mean diameter of 385 miles over the same time period.
The storm's outer bands of rain were already beginning to impact the northern Leeward Islands, forecasters said on Aug. 16. Heavy rainfall is expected in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for the rest of the weekend, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized amounts of 6 inches and possible flash flooding.
What impacts will Hurricane Erin have on the US?
Erin is expected to make a turn to the north and avoid making landfall altogether. It will pass somewhere between North Carolina's Outer Banks and Bermuda, National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan said.
Despite staying well off the coast, Erin will cause dangerous surf conditions up and down practically the entire East Coast, from Florida all the way up to New England beaches, Pydynowski said. The conditions will include high waves and dangerous rip currents. The Outer Banks could see some beach erosion and coastal flooding from high waves, he said.
Erin is expected to bring dangerous conditions to offshore waters and beaches along the Northeast Florida coast from Aug. 18 - 21, including rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet on the 19th and 20th, said the weather service office in Jacksonville, Florida.
Weather conditions may seem ideal for a beach trip, but these types of conditions are when rip current fatalities tend to occur, Brennan said. Rip currents may not be visible from shore, so beachgoers should swim near lifeguards and pay attention to posted warnings.
'Catastrophic' Erin underwent unusually rapid intensification
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) strengthens by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.
In Erin's case, winds strengthened roughly 80 mph in about a day. Erin was declared a hurricane (winds of at least 74 mph) shortly before 11 a.m. on Aug. 15. A day later, it had strengthened into a Category 5 cyclone (winds of at least 157 mph).
Warm water ahead of Erin as it moved west, a lack of wind shear and its position far enough away from any land to interfere contributed to the strengthening, Pydynowski said.
"These kind of rapid intensification events do occur, but that much that quickly is certainly more toward the uncommon end of things," he said.
Data shows Hurricane Erin's remarkable power
Since 1979, only Hurricane Allen in 1980 had a lower minimum central pressure by August 16, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. Lower pressure in a hurricane means a stronger storm.
Since 1970, only 5 storms in the Atlantic hurricane basin have had 145 mph maximum winds or more by Aug. 16: Allen in 1980, Charley in 2004, Dennis in 2005, Emily in 2005 and Beryl in 2004, Klotzbach noted.
-Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver
Hurricane Erin spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Prepare now for hurricanes
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends.
Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a hurricane arrives
Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.
Contributing: Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Live hurricane tracker updates show Erin's path, spaghetti models