Switch 2 launch could be "significantly bigger" than the OG Switch's, but only if Nintendo can keep up: "When in history [...] did a launch for a popular new console go smoothly?"
We're fast approaching the launch of the Switch 2, and despite cries to "drop the price," pre-orders have been selling out around the world. Some analysts are already expecting a "significantly bigger" launch than what we saw with the OG Switch, but it all hinges on one key factor: supply.
Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Japan games industry consultancy Kantan Games, is one analyst who's expecting a "significantly" larger release for the console compared to the Switch 1. Speaking to GamesRadar+, he says that "the initial momentum for Switch 2 vs 1 is like night and day," pointing out that in 2017, Nintendo had "just suffered from the massive failure with the Wii U," meaning that "not too many people took the Switch seriously."
With the Switch 2, he expects the console "will be not only sold out at launch (a banality) but also hard to get for weeks or perhaps even months after." He adds: "Sorry, but we as an industry have seen so many console launches now: When in the history of the video gaming business did a launch for a popular new console go smoothly?"
He continues: "I hope I am wrong and I understand Nintendo will try their best, but I would be very surprised if you can just walk into a store and buy a Switch 2 before late summer at the earliest."
This sentiment is echoed by David Cole, CEO of research and consulting firm DFC Intelligence. He tells us that "the main issue is whether Nintendo can meet initial demand, and then continue to have enough units available this fall and into the holiday season," noting that "supply shortages could be a major issue in coming months."
Games industry researcher Joost van Dreunen, who writes the SuperJoost Playlist and teaches at NYU Stern School of Business, also believes that "acquiring a Switch 2 at launch will likely be challenging." He adds: "I anticipate stock shortages to persist through the holiday season and potentially into Q1 2026. The current global trade situation and tariff uncertainties have likely prompted Nintendo to be even more cautious with their manufacturing and distribution strategies."
Mat Piscatella, games industry analyst at Circana, reiterates "the success of the launch will depend on how many units will be available," noting: "Demand will likely be there globally, but that doesn't mean the units necessarily will be."
If Nintendo is able to supply enough consoles, "I don't see why the launch of Switch 2 should not be bigger than the original Switch," he explains.
The console's price and announced Nintendo Switch 2 launch games apparently don't matter too much in the immediate future, either, as he suggests: "Pricing and available games becomes much more important once we get outside the launch window, and we move away from the price insensitive Nintendo hyper-enthusiast day-one buyers more towards general gaming enthusiasts."
Nintendo has predicted that it'll sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles in its first year, as well as 45 million games, but has already indicated that the demand for the device has exceeded its expectations. Let's just hope everyone who really wants one doesn't have to wait too long at the console's release.
Keeping up with all the Nintendo Switch 2 news? Be sure to check out our roundup of upcoming Switch 2 games, too.
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