‘No buyers' remorse' for voters as Doug Ford's Tories enjoy big poll lead
In the first major
Ontario political poll
since Ford's Tories were re-elected in the snap Feb. 27 provincial election, Abacus Data found the governing party well ahead of its rivals.
The PCs were at 49 per cent to 28 per cent for Bonnie Crombie's Liberals, 14 per cent for Marit Stiles' New Democrats and five per cent for Mike Schreiner's Greens.
Ford defied the odds Thursday becoming the first premier to win three consecutive majority
'We're seeing the highest vote share for the Tories we've measured since we've been tracking and we see Ford's personal numbers better than they've been since we've really been tracking,' said Abacus president David Coletto.
'At least right now, there's no buyer's remorse in re-electing the PCs,' said Coletto.
In the February election, the Tories received 43 per cent of the popular vote to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 18.6 per cent for the New Democrats and 4.8 per cent for the Greens.
Abacus surveyed 1,000 Ontarians from June 2 through last Thursday using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
That means the poll was conducted during the first ministers meeting in Saskatoon — where Ford played a prominent role with Prime Minister Mark Carney — and as the Tories were ramming through their controversial Bill 5 designed to fast-track mining and infrastructure projects.
Prime Minister hints at prioritizing energy infrastructure — such as pipelines — after first
While the premier received mostly positive press for working with Carney to counter U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war against Canada, Queen's Park has been roiled by protests against the
Protect Ontario By Unleashing Our Economy Act
.
First Nation leaders have warned there will be 'fierce resistance' if long-standing treaty rights are overridden by the law passed last week.
'Bill 5 has generated, at least from my vantage point, no ... negative implications for the popularity of this government at least right now,' said Coletto, warning that could change.
'There's a lesson for those opponents of it — that they're going to have to do far more to get the public engaged, to be opposed to this at a time when people are really focused on just getting things done.'
Indeed, Ford's current standing appears largely due to his vocal stance against Trump's tariffs and a willingness to work with Carney's re-elected federal Liberals.
'There is this moment where Ontarians, like the rest of the country, are rallying around their political leader. I don't think people are overly optimistic, but I do think they get a sense that their political leaders are working together ... working with a common purpose,' said Coletto.
'We have a common goal or enemy, or however you want to frame it,' he said, pointing to the existential threat to Canada that Trump poses.
The pollster said Carney's popularity is 'definitely benefiting the Liberal brand in Ontario,' which is encouraging news for Crombie's provincial Grits.
But 'the collapse of the federal NDP has put downward pressure on the Ontario NDP' that's hurting Stiles' party.
'They're at the lowest we've measured them at in our tracking — 14 per cent,' said Coletto.
In terms of personal popularity, Ford was at 44 per cent positive, 33 per cent negative for a plus 11 per cent favourability rating with 21 per cent of respondents neutral and two per cent unsure.
Stiles was at 28 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative for plus three per cent with 31 per cent neutral and 16 per cent uncertain.
Schreiner was at 24 per cent positive and 23 per cent negative for plus one per cent with 34 per cent neutral and 20 per cent unsure.
Crombie,
the subject of a multimillion-dollar pre-election attack ad blitz from Ford's Tories
, was at 31 per cent positive and 33 per cent negative for minus two per cent with 25 per cent neutral and 11 per cent uncertain.
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