Latest news with #Coletto
Hamilton Spectator
8 hours ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
‘No buyers' remorse' for voters as Doug Ford's Tories enjoy big poll lead
Premier Doug Ford's third-term Progressive Conservatives are enjoying an extended honeymoon with voters, a new public-opinion survey suggests. In the first major Ontario political poll since Ford's Tories were re-elected in the snap Feb. 27 provincial election, Abacus Data found the governing party well ahead of its rivals. The PCs were at 49 per cent to 28 per cent for Bonnie Crombie's Liberals, 14 per cent for Marit Stiles' New Democrats and five per cent for Mike Schreiner's Greens. Ford defied the odds Thursday becoming the first premier to win three consecutive majority 'We're seeing the highest vote share for the Tories we've measured since we've been tracking and we see Ford's personal numbers better than they've been since we've really been tracking,' said Abacus president David Coletto. 'At least right now, there's no buyer's remorse in re-electing the PCs,' said Coletto. In the February election, the Tories received 43 per cent of the popular vote to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 18.6 per cent for the New Democrats and 4.8 per cent for the Greens. Abacus surveyed 1,000 Ontarians from June 2 through last Thursday using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. That means the poll was conducted during the first ministers meeting in Saskatoon — where Ford played a prominent role with Prime Minister Mark Carney — and as the Tories were ramming through their controversial Bill 5 designed to fast-track mining and infrastructure projects. Prime Minister hints at prioritizing energy infrastructure — such as pipelines — after first While the premier received mostly positive press for working with Carney to counter U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war against Canada, Queen's Park has been roiled by protests against the Protect Ontario By Unleashing Our Economy Act . First Nation leaders have warned there will be 'fierce resistance' if long-standing treaty rights are overridden by the law passed last week. 'Bill 5 has generated, at least from my vantage point, no ... negative implications for the popularity of this government at least right now,' said Coletto, warning that could change. 'There's a lesson for those opponents of it — that they're going to have to do far more to get the public engaged, to be opposed to this at a time when people are really focused on just getting things done.' Indeed, Ford's current standing appears largely due to his vocal stance against Trump's tariffs and a willingness to work with Carney's re-elected federal Liberals. 'There is this moment where Ontarians, like the rest of the country, are rallying around their political leader. I don't think people are overly optimistic, but I do think they get a sense that their political leaders are working together ... working with a common purpose,' said Coletto. 'We have a common goal or enemy, or however you want to frame it,' he said, pointing to the existential threat to Canada that Trump poses. The pollster said Carney's popularity is 'definitely benefiting the Liberal brand in Ontario,' which is encouraging news for Crombie's provincial Grits. But 'the collapse of the federal NDP has put downward pressure on the Ontario NDP' that's hurting Stiles' party. 'They're at the lowest we've measured them at in our tracking — 14 per cent,' said Coletto. In terms of personal popularity, Ford was at 44 per cent positive, 33 per cent negative for a plus 11 per cent favourability rating with 21 per cent of respondents neutral and two per cent unsure. Stiles was at 28 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative for plus three per cent with 31 per cent neutral and 16 per cent uncertain. Schreiner was at 24 per cent positive and 23 per cent negative for plus one per cent with 34 per cent neutral and 20 per cent unsure. Crombie, the subject of a multimillion-dollar pre-election attack ad blitz from Ford's Tories , was at 31 per cent positive and 33 per cent negative for minus two per cent with 25 per cent neutral and 11 per cent uncertain.
Time of India
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Can Pierre Poilievre's youth appeal be a game-changer in Canada's 2025 election?
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is appealing to a demographic that has historically been elusive and difficult to catch for his party, the young voters. At his Calgary rally on Friday(April 25), he called for the 'biggest voter turnout in Canadian history" to bring changes he believes the country desperately needs. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack India stares at a 'water bomb' threat as it freezes Indus Treaty India readies short, mid & long-term Indus River plans Shehbaz Sharif calls India's stand "worn-out narrative" Standing before a crowd of thousands in Calgary, he asked, "Are you going to reach out to those who have lost hope and show them that voting for change offers a chance for a better future?" This is seen as a bold step as young Canadians traditionally have supported left-wing parties, with the Liberals enjoying strong support. But the recent polling indicates a significant shift, where the survey shows that there is a major shift in young voters aged 18-34 who now back the Conservatives. 5 5 Next Stay Playback speed 1x Normal Back 0.25x 0.5x 1x Normal 1.5x 2x 5 5 / Skip Ads by by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Crossout: New Apocalyptic MMO Crossout Play Now Undo A major reason behind this shift is the economic issues, as young Canadians are grappling with high housing costs, inflation, and job insecurity. Trump's restrictive policies, tariffs, and global uncertainty add to this pressure. Poilievre's focus on these concerns resonates with a generation that feels left behind by the status quo. His promises to reduce government intervention and cut taxes are particularly appealing to those who feel burdened by economic challenges. Live Events His appeals are not limited to a policy shift but also an identity shift. According to analysts, he has successfully positioned the Conservative Party as a champion of individual freedom and economic opportunity. David Coletto, founder and CEO of the Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data, believes that Poilievre requires an exceptionally high voter turnout. Coletto pointed out that Justin Trudeau 's success in 2015 was partly due to his ability to win over young voters. "He needs to find a way to inspire younger, less consistent, and more unlikely voters, individuals who may not have participated in past elections," Coletto remarked. Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are underestimating their support, as happened in the previous two elections. However, he noted that even if the polls are off by one or two percentage points, it probably won't alter the result of this year's election. "The only variable left is to out-hustle and out-turnout your competitors," Coletto emphasized. It becomes important to know that despite winning the popular vote in both the 2021 and 2019 elections, the Conservatives ultimately lost those races. Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor, suggests that Poilievre's focus should shift to swing regions like Ontario if he hopes to win more seats. Poilievre's focus on these concerns resonates with a generation that feels left behind. With housing prices skyrocketing and job opportunities feeling out of reach, young Canadians find themselves increasingly disillusioned with the status quo. However, the problem lies in the fact that young people have been less likely to vote, and Poilievre's success hinges on mobilizing this demographic due to which his campaign is focusing on outreach efforts and encouraging young Canadians to make their voices heard at the polls.
Yahoo
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Poilievre hopes young people are listening as he appeals for record turnout
Pierre Poilievre is trying to win over young people when he says he needs the "biggest voter turnout in Canadian history" to reverse a Liberal victory some polls suggest is a foregone conclusion, political experts say. Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are most likely to support Poilievre's Conservatives — but they're also the least likely demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout," Coletto said. "He needs to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable, less likely voters, people who may never have voted in an election before." CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority government come election day. But voter support has coalesced around the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this election into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator. Big turnout is path to victory: Poilievre Poilievre made his pitch for a record turnout at a Calgary rally on Friday. Organizers say more than 3,000 people heard his call. "Are you going to reach out to all the people who may have given up on life and tell them that there's hope if they vote for a change?" Poilievre told the crowd. "We need the biggest voter turnout in Canadian history to deliver the change that Canadians need." In order to win, Coletto said the Conservatives must overcome the advantage the Liberals have among older voters, the demographic most likely to vote. In 2015, Justin Trudeau became prime minister in part because he won over young voters, Coletto noted. "And so in a way — ironically, actually — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the success of Trudeau 10 years ago in getting those less reliable non-voters out this time." A young supporter of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre waits for his arrival before a campaign rally in Calgary that the party described as a "whistle stop." (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press) The Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are undercounting their support, something that occurred in the two previous elections, Coletto said. But he added that the polls missing by one or two percentage points again likely won't change the outcome of this year's election. "The only variable left is to outhustle and out-turnout your competitors." The Conservatives won the popular vote in the 2021 and 2019 elections, but lost those elections as well. Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist, doesn't think the party's appeal for a record turnout is remarkable. She says every party is doing a get-out-the-vote push right now, and this is just how the Conservatives are going about it. She also believes, however, the Conservatives are targeting a demographic less likely to see voting as a duty. "It's one thing to engage [with young people]," said Galbraith, co-founder and partner of the communications firm Oyster Group. "It's another thing to get them out to vote or get their friends and colleagues out to vote." Political parties trying to bring down incumbent governments generally benefit from higher turnouts, as it usually shows voters' appetite for change, said Éric Grenier, the polling analyst who runs CBC's Poll Tracker and founded "But I question whether this is a normal election. There's obviously been a high engagement in the election," he said, noting the trade war caused by U.S. President Donald Trump. 'Go to Ontario' Elections Canada said an estimated 7.3 million Canadians — a record — cast their ballots during the advanced voting period. That's a 25 per cent increase from 2021. Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, finds it puzzling Poilievre would call for a record turnout in Calgary, a Conservative stronghold, as it would mainly have the effect of padding the party's margin of victory there — aside from the few seats the Liberals are aiming to flip. Tellier suggested Poilievre doesn't expect to win the election anymore. "Why do you appeal to voters that won't change the numbers of ridings you will win?" she asked. "If the objective is to increase the [percentage] of popular support [that makes sense but] if the strategy is to win more seats, then go to Ontario." Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to Calgary supporters with his campaign jet at his backdrop at a hangar near the airport. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press) Calgary stop criticized The Conservatives' decision to visit Calgary in the final days of the campaign raised eyebrows from some party operatives who spoke to CBC News Friday. Two of them said the party should be making a play for swing voters elsewhere since there's little time before Monday's election. The quick rally, held at a private jet hangar near Calgary International Airport, was billed as a "whistle stop" on the way to B.C., a province crucial to the party's electoral hopes. Galbraith said it doesn't really matter where the Conservatives are asking for a record turnout, given that key messages from political rallies spread online with ease. It was in Edmonton where former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre, "but it was broadcast across the country so it doesn't matter where he does it any more," she said.
CBC
27-04-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Poilievre hopes young men are listening as he appeals for record turnout
Social Sharing Pierre Poilievre is trying to win over young people when he says he needs the "biggest voter turnout in Canadian history" to reverse a Liberal victory some polls suggest is a foregone conclusion, political experts say. Newly eligible voters, specifically men, are most likely to support Poilievre's Conservatives — but they're also the least likely demographic to vote according to historical trends, said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Ottawa-based polling and market research firm Abacus Data. "He needs, I think, an extraordinary level of turnout," Coletto said. "He needs to find a way to motivate younger, less reliable, less likely voters, people who may never have voted in an election before." CBC's Poll Tracker, which compiles publicly available polls, has the Conservatives with a level of popularity — 38.7 per cent — that would normally translate into a majority government come election day. But voter support has coalesced around the Liberals and Conservatives and turned this election into a two-party race, polling suggests. The Liberals have 42.5 per cent support, according to the aggregator. Big turnout is path to victory: Poilievre Poilievre made his pitch for a record turnout at a Calgary rally on Friday. Organizers say more than 3,000 people heard his call. "Are you going to reach out to all the people who may have given up on life and tell them that there's hope if they vote for a change?" Poilievre told the crowd. "We need the biggest voter turnout in Canadian history to deliver the change that Canadians need." In order to win, Coletto said the Conservatives must overcome the advantage the Liberals have among older voters, the demographic most likely to vote. In 2015, Justin Trudeau became prime minister in part because he won over young voters, Coletto noted. "And so in a way — ironically, actually — Mr. Poilievre is trying to replicate the success of Trudeau 10 years ago in getting those less reliable non-voters out this time." The Conservatives are likely hoping the polls are undercounting their support, something that occurred in the two previous elections, Coletto said. But he added that the polls missing by one or two percentage points again likely won't change the outcome of this year's election. "The only variable left is to outhustle and out-turnout your competitors." The Conservatives won the popular vote in the 2021 and 2019 elections, but lost those elections as well. Amanda Galbraith, a Conservative strategist, doesn't think the party's appeal for a record turnout is remarkable. She says every party is doing a get-out-the-vote push right now, and this is just how the Conservatives are going about it. She also believes, however, the Conservatives are targeting a demographic less likely to see voting as a duty. "It's one thing to engage [with young people]," said Galbraith, co-founder and partner of the communications firm Oyster Group. "It's another thing to get them out to vote or get their friends and colleagues out to vote." Political parties trying to bring down incumbent governments generally benefit from higher turnouts, as it usually shows voters' appetite for change, said Éric Grenier, the polling analyst who runs CBC's Poll Tracker and founded "But I question whether this is a normal election. There's obviously been a high engagement in the election," he said, noting the trade war caused by U.S. President Donald Trump. 'Go to Ontario' Elections Canada said an estimated 7.3 million Canadians — a record — cast their ballots during the advanced voting period. That's a 25 per cent increase from 2021. Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, finds it puzzling Poilievre would call for a record turnout in Calgary, a Conservative stronghold, as it would mainly have the effect of padding the party's margin of victory there — aside from the few seats the Liberals are aiming to flip. Tellier suggested Poilievre doesn't expect to win the election anymore. "Why do you appeal to voters that won't change the numbers of ridings you will win?" she asked. "If the objective is to increase the [percentage] of popular support [that makes sense but] if the strategy is to win more seats, then go to Ontario." Calgary stop criticized The Conservatives' decision to visit Calgary in the final days of the campaign raised eyebrows from some party operatives who spoke to CBC News Friday. Two of them said the party should be making a play for swing voters elsewhere since there's little time before Monday's election. The quick rally, held at a private jet hangar near Calgary International Airport, was billed as a "whistle stop" on the way to B.C., a province crucial to the party's electoral hopes. Galbraith said it doesn't really matter where the Conservatives are asking for a record turnout, given that key messages from political rallies spread online with ease. It was in Edmonton where former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre, "but it was broadcast across the country so it doesn't matter where he does it any more," she said.
CBC
26-03-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Has the rise of Carney's Liberals sunk this upstart centrist party?
Social Sharing Dominic Cardy, leader of the upstart Canadian Future Party, is under no illusions that he will be prime minister after Canadians cast their vote next month. "This party just started and what we really want to do in this race is to raise the profile for the ideas we're putting out there," he told CBC News. "We're hoping that we can keep on providing new ideas that the Liberals and the Tories and really anyone else can steal if they want to. For us, it's about democracy, not about parties." The Future Party officially launched last summer, billing itself as a centrist option for voters who have become disillusioned with the Liberals and Conservatives. But the party was formed while Justin Trudeau and his more progressive Liberal brand was tanking in the polls. The Liberals have seen a sharp resurgence under Mark Carney's more centrist approach. CEO and founder of Abacus Data, David Coletto, said there didn't seem to be much support for a new centrist party even before Trudeau stepped down. "There is a myth about this centrist voter that exists that is moderate on all sides. I don't know if that's true," he told CBC News. "It's too simple to say that most voters are in the middle or in the centre. I don't necessarily agree. It depends on the issue." The Future Party ran candidates in two byelections in September but garnered less than one per cent of the vote in both contests. Coletto said Carney's shift to the centre does leave "a lot less space" for the Future Party. But he argued a larger problem facing any new party is the emergence of U.S. President Donald Trump as a central ballot question. "I think that the broader issue-set has made it hard for a brand-new party with an unknown leader to get any traction, because Trump and all the chaos that's come from that has created a demand for stability," Coletto said. But Cardy, a former New Brunswick MLA and cabinet minister, said he's concerned that the Conservatives and Liberals thus far are lacking sufficient plans to address Trump, specifically when it comes to national defence. "There's still a huge gap between what we need to talk about when it comes to defending our country and what the major parties are proposing," he said. Cardy also said he isn't concerned about the Liberal shift to the centre and its increasing popularity. "We'd always said that the goal, our biggest goal, was to try and drag politics back to the centre," he said. "We certainly haven't had the time to build [our party] into anything formidable yet." He said his party's platform focuses on issues where he thinks the Liberals and Conservatives lack "credible positions." The platform has three pillars: boosting defence, democratic reform and making social services more efficient. Still, he said it's "fantastic" that the Liberals are moving toward the centre. No full slate of candidates The party isn't expected to run a full slate of candidates, but Cardy is optimistic that they can run in up to 100 ridings. "The election is earlier than we'd hoped," he said, noting that the party only started creating its riding associations in January. "We'll have as many [candidates] as we can get. But again, we decided that yes, we're going to run a campaign that's limited because we're new and that's fine." Cardy himself is running in Fredericton. Although he said he will focus on his local campaign, he intends to make a few trips to various communities across the country — even if he has to fly there himself.
