Israeli-Iranian conflict threatens Africa - Opinion

Al-Ahram Weekly

2 days ago

The impact of this escalation extended beyond the Middle East, reaching other regions, notably Africa, which quickly felt its repercussions on the economic, security, and geopolitical levels. The strikes disrupted global markets and triggered a spike in oil prices, which directly affected the Sub-Saharan African economies. Countries like Ghana and South Africa experienced currency fluctuations and surging fuel prices, intensifying inflationary pressures.
These nations, heavily reliant on energy imports and vulnerable supply routes such as through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, found themselves exposed to the ripple effects of the crisis.
Tensions escalated in the Red Sea due to Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, raising concerns among coastal African states about increased militarisation. Meanwhile, Africa's responses to the crisis were divided, revealing deep splits in foreign policy alignments. On the geopolitical front, the escalation intensified global competition for influence in Africa, making the continent more vulnerable than ever to the spillover of transnational conflicts and instability in the global order.
Africa is experiencing rapidly escalating economic repercussions as a result of the ongoing escalation between Israel and Iran. It has triggered severe shocks in already fragile economies, and the global oil price surge, exceeding seven per cent, has pushed energy-importing African nations into renewed inflationary crises, particularly amid weak local currencies and waning market confidence.
In Ghana, inflation fears have returned with force as the cost of fuel imports rises. Meanwhile, South Africa witnessed a sharp depreciation of the rand and a swift drop in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, exposing its financial fragility and dependency on global markets. Capital flight to safe havens such as gold and US bonds has further strained emerging African economies.
With the ongoing tensions, African governments appear to have limited tools to absorb external shocks, especially as transport and basic goods prices climb, threatening societal stability already weakened by past crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The military escalation in the Gulf has further disrupted global oil markets, pushing crude prices close to $78 per barrel and exacerbating energy crises in African oil-importing countries. These nations now face mounting challenges to balance public budgets and protect people's purchasing power, amid widening current account deficits and slowing growth.
The persistence of tensions also threatens food security and supply chains, especially in East Africa and the Sahel, due to the disruption of maritime navigation in the Red Sea caused by Houthi attacks. Countries like Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia may struggle to import essential fuel and food supplies as insurance and shipping costs soar, potentially leading to a severe logistical crisis.
The deeper issue lies in the accumulation of crises, which continue to overwhelm African economies without providing sufficient recovery time. Although Africa plays no direct role in these conflicts, it disproportionately bears the cost at a time when the continent urgently needs calm and recovery.
The Iranian-Israeli escalation has extended to the Red Sea, one of the world's most important strategic maritime corridors, threatening its stability as a vital artery for the flow of food and energy to Africa. In Somalia, fears are growing over the emergence of covert alliances between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group. This deepens security threats and turns the Somali coastline into an open arena for proxy confrontations between regional powers.
Meanwhile, Somaliland also finds itself at a difficult crossroads, facing increasing pressure from regional actors such as Ethiopia, the UAE, and Russia competing for control over its ports. In Djibouti, the challenge is even more complex due to the presence of military bases belonging to rival global powers, including the United States, France, and China.
In Sudan, the consequences are multifaceted and severe. A potential decline in Iranian support for the Sudanese Army especially in the domain of drones may shift the balance of power in favour of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). At the same time, increasing Sudanese accusations of Israeli support for rebel groups could internationalise the conflict through local proxies.
The Iranian-Israeli escalation has sparked notable reactions from the African countries, which have expressed diverse positions reflecting their strategic interests and perspectives. Egypt and Tunisia strongly condemned the Israeli attacks on Iran, viewing them as a serious threat to regional security and a violation of international legitimacy. South Africa called for de-escalation and the activation of UN mechanisms, while Nigeria adopted a balanced stance, urging restraint and the prioritisation of dialogue.
Kenya criticised the UN Security Council's failure to prevent the crisis and demanded structural reform. Ghana and Namibia voiced concerns over the economic fallout, particularly the rising energy prices and their impact on Africa's fragile economies.
The preoccupation of the major powers with the Middle East crisis may also lead to a decline in international support for African security programmes, leaving the continent facing mounting challenges in combating terrorism and insurgencies. As a result, Africa risks becoming a battleground for external conflicts or bearing their cost without having any real influence over them.
The writer is a researcher in African affairs.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 3 July, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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