Markets: What the drop in JOLTS data means for recession fears

Yahoo

29-04-2025

US stocks (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) are holding up despite recession worries, even as US job openings continue to fall sharply.
Bob Lang, founder and technical analyst at Explosive Options, explains what the drop in Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data and Wall Street's reduced S&P 500 (^GSPC) forecasts may be indicating about the market.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
Well, to discuss this and more I want to bring in Bob Lane. He is a leading technical expert as well as the founder and technical analyst at Explosive Options. He's gonna join me for the hour. Bob, it's great to have you on. Thank you for making the time to stick with us for the hour this morning. I know that you look at the technicals, but it's interesting when the economic data tells us something about the state of the consumer, especially when job openings are such a big concern. Right. To what extent are you seeing any recessionary fear playing out in the technicals right now?
Really, I'm not seeing very much uh, here, Maddie, with the, with recessionary fears yet. And if you take a look at this JOLTS data, I looked at some history, um, you realize that the JOLTS data has shown that this number has fallen about 50% in the last three and a half years. You have to go back to the end of 2021 when we were close to 12 million on the jolts. Now, we're at seven million. So, it's, it's a huge drop in, uh, in job openings, which kind of explains why the labor market has been so tight for such a long time. We still have, uh, four to 4.2% unemployment rate. We're going to get a new number coming up on Friday. And I think that that, uh, right there is going to tell you that the Fed is going to be more interested in watching more data related to inflation and not so much towards the, uh, towards the jobs number.
Yeah. And I, I want to get your take to on HSBC cutting its annual price target for the S&P 500 this morning. Uh, below the 6,000 mark hitting. It, it was previously at 6,700. Now cutting its target to 5,600. That's in line with Bank of America's forecast. What are you seeing in the technicals that indicate whether or not we could hit as low as 5,600 for year end?
Well, certainly, uh, just a few weeks ago, we had some, uh, a huge drop down to about 4,800 on the S&P 500. And, and that was a, a scary number that a lot of people were looking at, you know, are we going to hold that level? I think the Nasdaq had hit a level where, uh, it had technically been in bare market territory minus 20%. And for the S&P 500, uh, you know, that, that this level right now that we're at right now, um, is, uh, actually where many analysts are expect, for us to finish by the end of the year. So, so what do we have going here? I mean, basically is, is the market full value right now? And, and that's really what these analysts are telling you. Uh, what I think is interesting, Maddie, is that, uh, from the beginning of the year, everybody knew tariffs were going to be introduced at some point in time in 2025, when after the election was, uh, in November. Um, so these analysts still came out with some large price targets in the S&P 500, 64, 65, I even saw as high as 7,000 uh, for the S&P 500. So knowing the facts that we were going to have some tariffs and how the negative effect they're going to have on the economy, why did they have such a, a high price target? That's, uh, that's what I'm wondering.
Right. I mean, that's a key question is what investors were missing heading into this administration. Thanks, Bob. You're going to stick with us here.