National Hurricane Center's quiet forecast has 2025 in rare company so far. Here's why

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18-05-2025

As we cruise through the first weekend of 2025 National Hurricane Center daily tropical outlooks, May is starting off as one of the quietest since 1950s, forecasters say.
That is welcome relief to people in Florida and across the Southeast still recovering from three hurricanes that made landfall in 2024.
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Hurricane forecaster Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist, pointed out this week that the sparcity of named storms makes 2025 among the rarest years in decades.
"Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X.
An average of 3.5 storms typically would have formed by now, the forecaster told USA TODAY.
The National Hurricane Center will issue tropical outlooks twice a day until the 2025 hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
If a system strengthens into a named storm — or if an unnamed storm shows signs of strengthening and impacting the coast — regular and more frequent advisories will be issued.
The weekend's weather to watch in Florida continues Sunday with scorching heat, as high-temperature records may fall this weekend and into next week. Hot weather is the top killer of people, and this weekend could be hot enough in some parts of Florida to be considered dangerous.
Look for daily stories from USA TODAY Network-Florida on conditions in the tropics using those outlooks and advisories, along with forecasts from other hurricane experts, including AccuWeather, Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut and Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University.
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The first named storm of the season will be Andrea.
Here's the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks as of 8 a.m., May 18.
The National Hurricane Center said there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.
One interesting note in forecasters' tropical weather discussion for May 17 was the observance of some early Saharan dust stretching to the Lesser Antilles. Saharan Dust commonly blows across the Atlantic, east from Africa, all the way to the Florida coast from about mid-June to mid-August. This layer of dust causes a haze, but also often serves to tamp down tropical weather conditions.
The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump's order.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
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Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist who specializes in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, said there have been zero named storms in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2025.
"Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X.
"So, the western North Pacific tends to be the primary contributor to named storm activity this time of year," Klotzbach told USA TODAY.
The quiet in the western Pacific is due to unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. "This wind pattern creates anti-cyclonic flow, which is not supportive for storm formations," he said.
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May.
There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms:
Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
The first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season will be Andrea.
Since 2003, Andrea has appeared twice in May, including the last year the name appeared in 2019.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea
The World Meteorological Committee maintains six lists of hurricane names in the Atlantic basin and separate lists for the Pacific basin. There are 21 names on each list.
The six lists of names are used on a rotating basis, so names from the list used in 2025 will appear again in 2031, unless a name is retired.
A nation hit hardest by a devastating storm can request its name be removed because use of the name again would be insensitive. Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the list used last year and were replaced with Brianna, Holly, Miguel
Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center from May 15 through Nov. 30. The outlooks come out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. ET.
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A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
Contained in the outlook are the probabilities an area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days:
A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow)
A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange)
A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red)
"The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said.
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"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
"This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions."
Although many people search Google for an answer to the question "When is Florida hurricane season," there actually is no such thing.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said, so storms can form before and after those dates.
Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic basin do impact the U.S., from the Gulf Coast and Florida north into Canada.
The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.
Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from:
Named storms: 13-21
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
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Named storms: 14
Hurricanes: 7
Major hurricanes: 3
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
(This story was updated to add new information and photos.)
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC forecast no storms in the next 48 hours as 2025 off to slow start