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SBS Australia
24 minutes ago
- SBS Australia
Tasmanians head to polls in early election
Tasmanians head to polls in early election Published 18 July 2025, 7:45 am Tasmanians are heading to the polls for their second state election in just two years. The last term of government collapsed after a little more than 12 months when cross bench MPs, who'd previously backed the government, voted in favour of a no confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
YouGov poll shows Tasmania set for another hung parliament, with Labor leader preferred in minority
The final public poll of the Tasmanian election campaign shows the state is heading for another hung parliament with a potentially larger crossbench. YouGov has released a poll of 931 voters, taken between July 7 and 18 — its second poll of the campaign. It shows Labor has lost support, while the Liberals have remained steady. The statewide first preference result was 31 per cent for the Liberals, 30 per cent for Labor, 20 per cent for independents, the Greens with 16 per cent, and 2 per cent for the Nationals. Compared with the YouGov poll from July 1, Labor has lost 4 per cent of support, while the Liberal and Greens results have remained the same and independents have picked up 2 per cent. The poll also included a "forced choice" question about who voters would prefer to be premier in minority government. Labor leader Dean Winter was preferred by 55 per cent of respondents, with Premier Jeremy Rockliff preferred by 45 per cent. This matched the poll's statewide two-party preferred of 55 per cent to Labor, 45 per cent to the Liberals. The poll also had Mr Rockliff with a minus 19 net satisfaction, and Mr Winter with minus 13. Paul Smith, from YouGov, said voters were dissatisfied with both leaders, meaning a larger crossbench looked likely. "There is a clear undercurrent that voters want change. "Voters are dissatisfied with both Dean Winter and Jeremy Rockliff, but they're more dissatisfied with Jeremy Rockliff. That is some sort of basis for perhaps Mr Winter being able to put forward that people do prefer him over Mr Rockliff." The poll has a 3.2 per cent margin of error. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor's loss of 4 per cent from the July 1 YouGov poll was "not disastrous" for the party. "If it ended up with 31 per cent Liberal and 30 per cent Labor, I would expect that the Liberals lose at least one seat, and Labor could gain one or two," Dr Bonham said. "It's also quite a strong poll for the Greens: if it's accurate, I would expect the Greens are a good chance at winning in Braddon and getting six seats [overall]." Dr Bonham described the preferred minority premier result as largely as expected, that Mr Rockliff's net dissatisfaction result appeared "extremely low", and that YouGov's method could slightly favour independents. He said the potential shape of the crossbench would be difficult for the Liberals to navigate if the party lost a seat. "The Liberals would not have a path to government, other than if Labor and the Greens refuse to work together," Dr Bonham said. Both the Liberals and Labor have ruled out formal agreements with the Greens for government, but have left the door open for governing without a formal deal. The last election resulted in 14 seats for the Liberals, 10 for Labor, five for the Greens, three for the Jacqui Lambie Network — which is not running at this election — and three independents. The YouGov poll also included a question about the Liberals' promised state-owned insurance company, TasInsure, showing 41 per cent support, 29 per cent opposition and 30 per cent unsure. The wording described that it was intended to "tackle soaring premiums", which Dr Bonham said would have resulted in a more positive response. DemosAU carried out the only other polling that was fully publicly released during the campaign, and that was not commissioned by a political party. Its poll of 3,421 voters between July 6 and 10 had a markedly different result from YouGov, showing the Liberals on 34.9 per cent, Labor on 24.7 per cent, independents with 20.3 per cent and the Greens with 15.6 per cent. Liberal-commissioned polling by EMRS — now owned by Liberal-aligned Font PR — had weekly results during the campaign and released rolling averaged results on Thursday. For the past two weeks of the campaign, EMRS had the Liberals on 37 per cent, Labor on 26 per cent, independents on 19 per cent and the Greens on 14 per cent.
ABC News
2 hours ago
- ABC News
Independent MP to push a lowering of Australia's voting age after UK decision
Independent MP for Kooyong Monique Ryan has vowed to introduce another bill to parliament pushing for a lowering of Australia's minimum voting age, after the United Kingdom reduced its voting age from 18 to 16. In the UK, the move would see an additional 1.6 million young people allowed to cast their ballots in the next election, in the biggest electoral reform in more than half a century. Ms Ryan told the ABC's Afternoon Briefing that she would be supportive of Australia implementing a similar move. "Around the world, there is a global move to lower the voting age," Ms Ryan said. "The fact is, in democracies we see that fewer and fewer young people feel they are actively engaged and supported by government and they're turning away from politics and what we want to do is bring them back. Ms Ryan said that she planned to introduce another private member's bill during the upcoming term of federal parliament, after an initial bill in 2018 failed to pass. "When the parliamentary committee looked at this in 2018, Labor was supportive of lowering the voting age. "Where things fell down was whether or not 16- and 17-year-olds should be forced to vote, whether it should be compulsory, or whether it should be voluntary at that age," Ms Ryan said. "I'll be pushing it because young people in my electorate tell me that it matters to them." The independent believes that, if the voting age were lowered, an inclusion in the bill that would rescind any potential electoral fine issued against young people who refuse to vote may help gain parliamentary approval. "If we think 16- and 17-year-olds are fit to vote, that they have the cognitive and emotional maturity to do so … then they should vote," she said. "The fallback option is that you don't enforce any fines on young people who don't turn up the first time round. "That would be a reasonable meeting point where we don't put too much pressure on young people, but we give them this universal enfranchisement and treat them as adults." Young Australians and some politicians are hoping this plan will have a snowball effect in Australia. Amelia Condon-Cernovs was 15 when she started advocating to lower the voting age with the Foundation for Young Australians. Now 18, the Canberran campaigner said young people wanted a voice and a chance to be involved in democracy, with the cost of living, education and climate change fuelling the change. She said that, much like driving a car, young voters should learn the political system bit by bit. "You don't go from not knowing how to drive to having your full licence," she said. The voting age has not always been 18 — roughly 50 years ago, it was 21. In 1973, the federal government moved to lower the age of eligibility amid the Vietnam War. Political scientist at the Australian National University Jill Sheppard said that change followed a social understanding that if young people could die for their country, they should be able to vote for it. And at the time, like today, not everyone was happy. Greens senator Jordon Steele-John introduced a bill to lower the voting age in 2018 and recently said Australians needed to think about who they wanted to influence policy. "I know who I would trust, out of those two groups. "We've got around half a million Australians who currently are prevented from having their say about policy decisions that will affect them for the longest." For the voting age to change, the federal government would need to pass legislation to amend the Commonwealth Electoral Act of 1918. If Senator Steele-John's bill had passed, he said it would have been compulsory for those 16 or 17 years old to vote. However, it would have introduced a clause in the Electoral Act to would allow electoral officers to consider waiving a fine if someone 16 or 17 years old did not vote. Dr Sheppard researches voting behaviour in federal elections and says parties fear lowering the vote will open "Pandora's box". "Labor probably wouldn't be any worse off if they allowed 16- and 17-year-olds to vote, but that fear of opening Pandora's box is always a worry for parties of government," she said. "What may happen in this parliament, though, because the Greens have the balance of power in the Senate, is that they put that on the table as a bargaining chip. Austria, Germany and Brazil have already changed the voting age to 16 and Scotland allows voting at 16 in local elections, although the UK general election is run under UK law. Dr Sheppard said while compulsory voting was one key difference between the Australian and British electoral systems, she believed the evidence found in other countries would also flow on to Australia. "It is time for Australia to follow suit. If the UK can do it, so can we," Senator Steele-John said.
