ASEAN's balancing act begins: US tariffs, China and Myanmar top agenda as Kuala Lumpur talks open

Asia News Network

08-07-2025

July 8, 2025
KUALA LUMPUR – As the international geopolitical and econo­mic landscape grows increasingly uncertain, the 58th Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) and related meetings which open today is set to play a key role.
A highlight will be a dialogue session between Asean and the United States on Thursday, the day after US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariffs ends.
Trump's latest warning to slap additional tariffs on countries aligning themselves with BRICS will be a key discussion point.
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On Sunday, the US president warned that any country that aligned itself with 'anti-American policies' of the BRICS economic bloc will face an additional 10% tariff.
Indonesia is the sole Asean nation that is a full BRICS member, with Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam having joined as partner countries last October.
Universiti Malaya International and Strategic Studies Department Assoc Prof Dr Khoo Ying Hooi said the AMM will see Asean trying to hold itself together while navigating a messy geopolitical environment with Trump back in charge.
'The Asean-US dialogue will be closely watched with Trump's approach tending to be more transactional and less predictable,' she said.
Amid the ongoing geopolitical rivalry between global superpowers, she expected China to likely use its presence at the AMM to present itself as a more stable and reliable partner.
At the East Asia Summit and the Asean Regional Forum on Friday, Assoc Prof Khoo said we will probably see US-China rivalry play out more openly.
'Asean's responses might start to split, depending on each country's own alignment and econo­mic interests,' she pointed out.
Assoc Prof Khoo said the big question was whether Asean could take a stronger and more strategic position on tough issues involving Myanmar, the South China Sea and on economic resilience.
'In short, this AMM will really show us where Asean stands not just in terms of unity, but on how it is adjusting to a much more volatile and transactional global environment, especially with the US shifting gears again,' she added.
The Myanmar issue will be high on the AMM agenda, given the heightened expectations on Asean with the civil war there ongoing for four years without meaningful progress, she said.
'There is only so much the region can keep repeating statements without follow-through,' she added.
Asia West East Centre director and co-founder Abdolreza Alami said Trump's proposed tariffs on Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines poses a significant threat to Asean's export-driven economies.
As such, he said US-Asean dialogue will be a vital platform for negotiations with American officials to mitigate the impact of the tariffs.
Abdolreza said the region aimed to maintain neutrality and Asean centrality, and the separate dialogues with US and China will focus on balancing relations with both superpowers.
'The intensifying US-China competition, particularly in the South China Sea and technology, places Asean in a delicate position,' he added.
Julia Roknifard, senior lecturer at Taylor's University School of Law and Governance, said US tariffs will be a major point of discussion but Asean as a regional grouping 'held collective weight to address the tariff challenge.'
'Each country will share its response to the US tariff policy and they will see how Asean countries can align themselves,' she added.
Roknifard expected the Myan­mar crisis to be raised during the AMM with Malaysia heavily pushing for progress on that front.
'While the ability of Asean members to resolve the crisis is limited, they still want to keep the issue in discussion, in the hopes that keeping it high on the agenda will eventually have some effect on the Myanmar government,' she added.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is scheduled to officiate the official AMM opening ceremony tomorrow upon his return from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where he addressed the BRICS Summit.
The four-day meet will include the South-East Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Commission meeting, 15th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting and the 32nd Asean Regional Forum.
More than 10 Asean Post-Ministerial Conferences will be held, including meetings with China, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, Japan, Russia, South Korea, United States, United Kingdom and the European Union.