logo
A fierce wave of Russian attacks threatens to rattle Ukraine's recovery conference in Rome

A fierce wave of Russian attacks threatens to rattle Ukraine's recovery conference in Rome

Globe and Mail3 days ago
Ukraine needs a lot of weapons and budget financing to repel the Russian invaders and survive as a functioning country. It also needs jobs, a tax base and foreign investment. If its economy shatters, so does its ability to defend itself, let alone rebuild.
Ukraine has high hopes that the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome next Thursday and Friday will speed up the rebuilding efforts.
It may leave disappointed. In recent weeks, Russia has pounded the country with devastating aerial attacks. The barrage overnight on Thursday was the biggest since the war began, according to the Ukraine air force, with 550 drones and missiles raining down on Kyiv and elsewhere. The British government's foreign office this week estimated that the attacks have killed 1,000 Ukrainian civilians since January.
Against the backdrop of destruction and death, Ukraine's efforts to sell itself as a promising investment destination will not be easy. Still the country will persist − it has no other choice.
In spite of the war, Ukraine is attracting some foreign investment. The government can boast that Ukraine's economy is not only intact, it's growing, thanks in good part to about US$100-billion a year in assistance, including weapons, it receives from Western countries, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine support tracker. It has also been cracking down on corrupt oligarchs and launching business-friendly reforms.
Trump says U.S. has given Ukraine too many weapons after pausing some shipments
In a report published this week, the International Monetary Fund forecast Ukraine' s GDP growth at 2 per cent to 3 per cent this year, about the same as last year's, rising to 4.5 per cent next year and close to 5 per cent in 2027. If the war ends soon, the growth figures would be fattened up. Companies putting money into Ukraine are gambling that a peace agreement would make their investment returns soar.
The Rome conference is the fourth of its kind – last year's was in Berlin − since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, 2022. Government and business leaders from Ukraine, the U.S., Italy and other European countries are expected.
The high-level participation shows that this edition is particularly ambitious. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky may show up (his presence was not confirmed on Friday). His Finance Minister, Sergii Marchenko, and his Economy Minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, will be there. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected.
In addition, the top executives of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. and several big defence contractors, including Fincantieri, Europe's largest shipbuilder, and Italy's Leonardo, are listed as participants. Canada is sending a delegation that will probably include Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne.
What it's like to be inside a Kyiv bomb shelter as Russia's air assault escalates
The Ukrainian industries that would appeal most to Western investors include agriculture, energy and defence.
Ukraine, essentially one big farm, is a major exporter of grains. If the country is granted membership in the European Union – it's on the waiting list – it will have free access to one of the world's biggest food markets, with 450 million consumers.
Canada's Prem Watsa, head of Fairfax Financial Holdings, has invested in one of Ukraine's biggest agribusinesses, Astarta, on a bet that war's end could make the company a pan-European player. So far, so good. Astarta's Warsaw-listed shares have doubled in the past year.
In energy, Ukraine's DTEK, the country's biggest privately owned electricity producer – its coal plants are prime targets for Russian missiles – is building enormous wind farms. It is expanding its renewables portfolio into eastern Europe. Never mind the war – DTEK wants partners to help it expand.
With the fighting in its fourth year, and no sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to seek peace, it is Ukraine's defence industry that offers the most potential for foreign investment. Ukraine, by necessity, became a world leader fast in aerial robot warfare done on the cheap, putting it years ahead of Western countries.
France has figured that drones present an enormous opportunity. Last month, the French government asked Renault, the car company that is 15 per cent owned by the state, to manufacture drones in Ukraine in partnership with local engineers. Renault's mass-manufacturing expertise would help Ukraine pump out drones in great quantities while providing the French company with drone expertise that it could repatriate when the war ends.
Ukraine only makes about a third of the weapons it needs. Western companies could help it ramp up production in armoured personnel carriers, anti-tank rockets, artillery shells and radar jamming systems. They would know that anything they produce would get bought by the Ukraine military in a second.
Will Western companies rush to build factories and make other investments when the Russian attacks are becoming more intense? Would they risk spending the money even if security guarantees were offered by the EBRD or other international financial institutions?
Both sides are said to be exhausted from the war of attrition, but Russia seems not exhausted enough. Ukraine's destruction continues. Its air defences are close to being tapped out. Worse, the U.S. this week abruptly halted the delivery of some crucial weapons, including Patriot interceptor missile systems, citing fear of draining its own stockpiles.
Poor Ukraine. Just when Ukraine needs rebuilding help the most, Mr. Putin ramps up the attacks to boost the risk factor. The headlines of endless missile and drone barrages will be hard to ignore in Rome.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Deals made by Trump since pausing his ‘Liberation Day' tariffs remain sparse
Deals made by Trump since pausing his ‘Liberation Day' tariffs remain sparse

Winnipeg Free Press

timean hour ago

  • Winnipeg Free Press

Deals made by Trump since pausing his ‘Liberation Day' tariffs remain sparse

NEW YORK (AP) — Just over three months ago, President Donald Trump unveiled his most sweeping volley of tariffs yet — holding up large charts from the White House Rose Garden to outline new import taxes that the U.S. would soon slap on goods from nearly every country in the world. But in line with much of Trump's on-again, off-again trade policy playbook, the bulk of those 'Liberation Day' levies in April were postponed just hours after they took effect — in a 90-day suspension that arrived in an apparent effort to quell global market panic and facilitate country-by-country negotiations. At that time, the administration set a lofty goal of reaching 90 trade deals in 90 days. Now, with the July 9 deadline looming, the U.S. has only announced pacts with the United Kingdom and Vietnam — as well as a 'framework″ agreement with China in a separate trade dispute. News of these deals often trickled through social media posts from the president and, even when countries on both sides of a negotiation table made more official announcements, many key details — including timing — were sparse. The Trump administration has since hinted that some trading partners might get more time for talks. Over the July 4th holiday weekend, Trump said that the U.S. would start sending letters to certain countries warning that higher tariffs could kick in Aug. 1. Trump took to Truth Social on Monday to share letters he sent to the leaders of Japan and South Korea, declaring that both countries would see 25% tariffs on goods entering the U.S. starting Aug. 1. Even with negotiations ongoing, most countries have still faced a minimum 10% levy on goods entering the U.S. over the past three months, on top of punishing new taxes targeting foreign steel and aluminum as well as auto imports. The 90-day pause pushed back additional steeper rates, which Trump calls 'reciprocal' tariffs, for dozens of nations. Here's what we know about the trade deals announced since April. Vietnam On July 2, Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that he said would allow U.S. goods to enter the country duty-free. Vietnamese exports to the United States, by contrast, would face a 20% levy. That's less than half the 46% 'reciprocal' rate Trump proposed for Vietnamese goods back in April. But in addition to the new 20% tariff rate, Trump said the U.S. would impose a 40% tax on 'transshipping'' — targeting goods from another country that stop in Vietnam on their way to the United States. Washington complains that Chinese goods have been dodging higher U.S. tariffs by transiting through Vietnam. It wasn't immediately clear when these new rates would go into effect or whether they would come on top of any other previously-imposed levies. Like most other countries, Vietnam has faced Trump's 10% baseline tariff for the last three months. United Kingdom On May 8, Trump agreed to cut tariffs on British autos, steel and aluminum, among other trade pledges — while the U.K. promised to reduce levies on U.S. products like olive oil, wine and sports equipment. The deal was announced in grandiose terms by both countries, but some key details remained unknown for weeks. When the deal was announced, for example, the British government notably said that the U.S. agreed to exempt the U.K. from its then-universal 25% duties on foreign steel and aluminum — which would have effectively allowed both metals from the country to come into the U.S. duty-free. But the timing for when those cuts would actually take effect stayed up in the air for almost a month. It wasn't until early June, when Trump hiked his steel and aluminum tariffs to a punishing 50% worldwide, that the U.S. acknowledged it was time to implement the agreement. And even then, U.S. tariffs on British steel and aluminum did not go to zero. The U.K. was the only country spared from Trump's new 50% levies, but still faces 25% import taxes on the metals — and Trump said that rate could also go up on or after Wednesday. The U.K. did not receive a higher 'reciprocal' rate on April 2, but continues to face the 10% baseline tax. China Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. At its peak, Trump's new tariffs on Chinese goods totaled 145% — and China's countertariffs on American products reached 125%. But on May 12, the countries agreed to their own 90-day truce to roll back those levies to 30% and 10%, respectively. And last month, details began trickling in about a tentative trade agreement. On June 11, following talks in London, Trump announced a 'framework' for a deal. And late last month, the U.S. and China both acknowledged that some sort of agreement had been reached. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China had agreed to make it easier for American firms to acquire Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals critical for manufacturing and microchip production. Meanwhile, without explicitly mentioning U.S. access to rare earths, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that it would 'review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items' and that the U.S. would 'lift a series of restrictive measures it had imposed on China.' More specifics about those measures — and when they would actually go into effect — were not immediately clear. But on Friday, the Ministry of Commerce acknowledged that the U.S. was resuming exports of airplane parts, ethane and other items to China. And when Trump first announced the framework on June 11, the U.S. had said it agreed to stop seeking to revoke the visas of Chinese students on U.S. college campuses. _________ AP Reporters Aniruddha Ghosal in Hanoi, Paul Wiseman and Fu Ting in Washington, D.C., and Huizhong Wu in Bangkok contributed to this report.

Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals
Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals

Edmonton Journal

timean hour ago

  • Edmonton Journal

Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Prime Minister Mark Carney upon his arrival at the White House earlier this year. Photo by White House U.S. President Donald Trump said he will be sending letters to governments around the world as he seeks trade deals — but Canada is not being affected by Wednesday's tariff deadline. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters. Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account. Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on. Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword. Support local journalism. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Trump ramped up pressure ahead of his self-imposed deadline by sending correspondence to countries hit by 'Liberation Day' duties warning them he will impose a high tariff rate if there's no trade deal. 'We've made deals also,' Trump said on Sunday. 'So we'll get to have a combination of letters, and some deals have been made.' Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again Trump took his trade war to the world with his so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs in April but walked back the most devastating duties a few hours later. A 10 per cent universal tariff remained in place for most countries. Trump set a 90-day deadline to make deals — but the only trade arrangements the Trump administration has come up with since have been frameworks for deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. Members of Trump's administration changed their tune over the weekend about whether those elevated tariffs would descend on global markets. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that if countries don't make a deal, the duties would go into effect Aug. 1, which would leave additional time for negotiations. Canada was not included in those global tariffs and has committed to coming up with some sort of bilateral deal with the U.S. by July 21. Canada is still being hit with fentanyl-related tariffs. Those 25 per cent tariffs, with a lower 10 per cent levy on energy and potash, only apply to exports not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade. Canada is also being hit with Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed in March to negotiate a new security and economic partnership, and have been working toward that since Carney visited the White House in early May. Last month, the two leaders set July 21 as the deadline for reaching that deal.

Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals
Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals

Vancouver Sun

timean hour ago

  • Vancouver Sun

Canada not affected by Trump's looming deadline for trade deals

U.S. President Donald Trump said he will be sending letters to governments around the world as he seeks trade deals — but Canada is not being affected by Wednesday's tariff deadline. Trump ramped up pressure ahead of his self-imposed deadline by sending correspondence to countries hit by 'Liberation Day' duties warning them he will impose a high tariff rate if there's no trade deal. 'We've made deals also,' Trump said on Sunday. 'So we'll get to have a combination of letters, and some deals have been made.' Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. Trump took his trade war to the world with his so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs in April but walked back the most devastating duties a few hours later. A 10 per cent universal tariff remained in place for most countries. Trump set a 90-day deadline to make deals — but the only trade arrangements the Trump administration has come up with since have been frameworks for deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. Members of Trump's administration changed their tune over the weekend about whether those elevated tariffs would descend on global markets. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that if countries don't make a deal, the duties would go into effect Aug. 1, which would leave additional time for negotiations. Canada was not included in those global tariffs and has committed to coming up with some sort of bilateral deal with the U.S. by July 21. Canada is still being hit with fentanyl-related tariffs. Those 25 per cent tariffs, with a lower 10 per cent levy on energy and potash, only apply to exports not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade. Canada is also being hit with Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed in March to negotiate a new security and economic partnership, and have been working toward that since Carney visited the White House in early May. Last month, the two leaders set July 21 as the deadline for reaching that deal. Those negotiations were briefly thrown off track in late June by Trump's demand that Canada drop its digital services tax. Ottawa terminated that tax on technology giants just before it was set to be collected on June 30. Canadians will be watching closely to see whether the U.S. arrives at new trade agreements with other nations this week. It could suggest what Trump and his team are prioritizing ahead of the deadline for Canada. The United Kingdom and Vietnamese frameworks suggest the president is committed to keeping some baseline tariffs in place. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday that the Trump administration will make several announcements 'in the next 48 hours.' He said Trump is concerned about 'the quality of the deals, not the quantity.' 'As you could imagine, as (Trump) started herding the cats and trying to get everyone across the finish line, when he said that there's a chance countries could boomerang back to their April 2 reciprocal tariff levels, we've had a lot of people change their tune in terms of negotiations,' Bessent said. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 7, 2025. Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store