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Trump casts doubt on trade deal with Japan, says U.S. could reach deal with India

Trump casts doubt on trade deal with Japan, says U.S. could reach deal with India

Asahi Shimbun21 hours ago
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, after touring a temporary migrant detention center informally known as "Alligator Alcatraz" in Ochopee, Florida, on July 1. (REUTERS)
WASHINGTON--The United States could reach a trade deal with India that would help American companies compete in the South Asian country and leave it facing far lower tariffs, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, while casting doubt on a possible deal with Japan.
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he believed India was ready to lower barriers for U.S. companies, which could pave the way for an agreement staving off the 26% rate he announced on April 2, before pausing it until July 9.
"Right now, India doesn't accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, if they do that, we're going to have a deal for less, much less tariffs," he said.
Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that the U.S. and India are nearing a deal that would lower tariffs on American imports to the South Asian country and help India avoid levies from rising sharply next week.
"We are very close with India," Bessent told Fox News in response to a question about progress on trade negotiations.
Indian officials extended a visit to Washington last week through Monday to try to reach agreement on a trade deal with President Donald Trump's administration and address lingering concerns on both sides, Indian government sources told Reuters.
A White House official familiar with the talks said the Trump administration plans to prioritize securing trade deals with countries including India ahead of Japan in the days leading up to the July 9 deadline.
India is one of more than a dozen countries actively negotiating with the Trump administration to try to avoid a steep spike in tariff rates on July 9, when a 90-day tariff pause ends. India could see its new "reciprocal" tariff rate rise to 27% from the current 10%.
The U.S.-India talks have hit roadblocks over disagreements on import duties for auto components, steel, and farm goods, ahead of Trump's deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs.
"We are in the middle -- hopefully more than the middle -- of a very intricate trade negotiation," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told an event in New York on Monday.
"Obviously, my hope would be that we bring it to a successful conclusion. I cannot guarantee it, because there's another party to that discussion," said Jaishankar, who is in the U.S. for a meeting of the China-focused Quad grouping.
He added that there "will have to be give and take" and the two sides will have to find middle ground.
TRUMP SUGGESTS HIGHER TARIFF FOR JAPAN
Bessent told Fox News that different countries have different agendas for trade deals, including Japan, which Trump complained about on Monday and again on Tuesday.
Trump said he was not thinking of extending the July 9 deadline and would simply send letters notifying countries of the tariff rate they would face.
"We've dealt with Japan. I'm not sure we're going to make a deal. I doubt it," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he returned to Washington from a trip to Florida.
Trump suggested he could impose a tariff of 30% or 35% on imports from Japan - well above the 24% tariff rate he announced on April 2 and then paused until July 9.
He said Japan was refusing to accept U.S.-grown rice, a demand made by Washington that he described as "an easy one," while selling millions of cars in the United States.
"So what I'm going to do, is I'll write them a letter saying we thank you very much, and we know you can't do the kind of things that we need, and therefore you pay a 30%, 35% or whatever the numbers that we determine," he said.
So far, only Britain has negotiated a limited trade deal with the Trump administration, accepting a 10% U.S. tariff on many goods, including autos, in exchange for special access for aircraft engines and British beef.
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Will China Become Iran's Major Defense Partner?
Will China Become Iran's Major Defense Partner?

The Diplomat

timean hour ago

  • The Diplomat

Will China Become Iran's Major Defense Partner?

As Iran navigates the aftermath of its 12-day conflict with Israel, the Islamic Republic finds itself grappling with two imperatives: the need to overhaul its shattered air defense system and intelligence apparatus, and the equally pressing challenge of renewing its social contract with a war-weary and deeply anxious population. This recalibration inevitably raises a number of questions as Tehran searches for a partner in the defense and security domain. Against this backdrop, China is emerging as a potential, perhaps even desirable, alternative to Russia. Recent commentaries in both Iran and China have made the case for closer defense ties and Iranian purchases of Chinese military hardware. These calls often highlight Pakistan's successful use of Chinese air defense systems during its recent tensions with India. Given Iran's lost trust in the quality of Russian systems and the urgency of rebuilding its air defense system, is closer China-Iran security cooperation on the horizon? 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More critically, deepening defense ties with Iran would offer China indirect influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Should China become Tehran's main security partner, it is reasonable to assume that Beijing would be better positioned to moderate Iran's behavior in the event of regional tensions, ensuring that the strait remains open and navigable. This is of paramount importance for China's own economic security as well as those of the Gulf Arab states. Increasing leverage over Tehran's strategic calculus through defense cooperation would thus serve both deterrent and stabilizing functions from Beijing's perspective. Another core advantage lies in an increased chance of containing Indian influence across Central Asia. Iran's drift away from India began in earnest after New Delhi began adhering to U.S.-led sanctions in 2018 and ceased oil imports from Tehran. The strategic vacuum left by India's retreat has only widened as India has grown closer to Israel – both ideologically, through shared anti-extremism narratives, and practically, via collaborations in defense, cyber, and agriculture. These ties have diminished Iran's value in Indian strategic thinking while India's pro-Israel stance has tarnished its image in the eyes of decisionmakers in Tehran, creating space for Beijing to step in. If China becomes Tehran's principal defense partner, it would be in a stronger position to frustrate Indian ambitions in Central Asia and the South Caucasus where Iran's geography is pivotal. With deeper Iranian cooperation, moreover, Beijing could synchronize the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) more seamlessly, using Iran as both a transit route and a geopolitical buffer. This coordination could marginalize India's efforts to connect with Central Asia and Afghanistan via the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which hinges on Indian investments in Iran's Chabahar port. Should Iran allow China to assume a stake in Chabahar, the INSTC's viability would be fatally undermined. This would be a double blow to India: denied strategic access to Central Asia and outmaneuvered in its attempts to counterbalance China's BRI. Last but not least, the political trajectory within Iran also favors increased alignment with China. As internal rivalries intensify in Tehran, the most probable outcome is the consolidation of a security state led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This would replicate, in many ways, Pakistan's civil-military hybrid model in which real power resides with the armed forces. For China, this is a familiar and manageable structure. 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These states have become key economic partners for China in sectors ranging from energy to logistics and transport. Close defense ties with Iran could disrupt these relationships especially if perceived as emboldening Tehran's regional adventurism. However, this risk should not be overstated. Paradoxically, China's closeness with Iran could also enhance its leverage with the GCC states. By acting as a potential mediator or deterrent influence over Iran, Beijing could present itself as an indispensable regional stabilizer capable of assuring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that Iran will not escalate militarily or cross the nuclear threshold. In this way, China might parlay its ties with Iran into a broader diplomatic capital with Iran's southern neighbors. A further consideration is the exposure of Chinese state-owned enterprises and private firms to secondary U.S. sanctions. Although China and Iran have collectively developed methods, and indeed networks, to circumvent some sanctions, there remains a legal and reputational risk for companies involved in dual-use technologies or defense exports to Iran. At a time when China-U.S. tensions remain high, particularly around technology and trade, Beijing is likely to consider whether the potential gains from a deeper tie with Iran as a defense supplier are worth the cost of even greater friction with Washington. Also at play is the distant, but all too real, prospect of a regime change, organically or otherwise, in Iran. Although a popular uprising leading to regime change remains unlikely in the near term, as most Iranians are currently focused on day-to-day survival amid the crisis, public sentiment is volatile. As such, there is a risk that China's investment in the regime could backfire should there be a revolution in Iran. Conclusion Despite the favorable geopolitical context that appears to support deeper defense cooperation between Beijing and Tehran, the most likely outcome is a carefully managed and limited relationship rather than a full-fledged defense partnership. The institutional scaffolding for closer cooperation is already in place; the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in 2021 and their common membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). However, the implementation of this framework would likely be shaped not by ideological alignment or mutual defense aspirations but by calculation, discretion, and long-term strategic interest on the part of China. Should China make the political decision to assist Iran in upgrading its defense capabilities, it would seek to do so without assuming the political cost of being seen as Tehran's military backer. Beijing's approach would be pragmatic and quiet. Assistance and sales, whether in the form of air defense systems, cyber tools, surveillance platforms, or drone technologies, will be offered selectively, and in a manner designed to limit visibility and exposure to U.S. sanctions or regional backlash. Chinese companies involved in these arrangements will be insulated through proxies or offshore intermediaries. This cautious posture, in turn, is driven by China's broader strategic outlook. For Beijing, Iran is neither an ally nor a partner but rather a geopolitical node and a useful check on the United States' desire to pull back from the Middle East. Iran's geographic location, natural resources, and strategic desperation make it a suitable partner for China's ambitions in Eurasian connectivity, regional balancing, and economic expansion. Yet China is acutely aware of the risks of overcommitment in the Middle East. Beijing does not want to become entangled in either regional rivalries or Iran's confrontations with Israel and the United States. To this end, China would likely continue to exploit the ambiguity of its position, keeping defense ties strong enough to benefit from Iran's vulnerabilities but restrained enough to avoid provoking its rivals.

India, the Quad, and China's Shadow: Building a Coherent Indo-Pacific Strategy
India, the Quad, and China's Shadow: Building a Coherent Indo-Pacific Strategy

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India, the Quad, and China's Shadow: Building a Coherent Indo-Pacific Strategy

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With participation from the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, the meeting reaffirmed the Quad's collective commitment to a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific amid intensifying geopolitical challenges. Condemnation of Pahalgam Terror Attack One of the key highlights of this meeting was the categorical condemnation of the brutal terror attack in Pahalgam, in the Indian territory of Jammu and Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for involvement in the attack, culminating in a brief conflict between the two nations in May 2025. The Quad nations sent a strong message on the Pahalgam attack: 'We call for the perpetrators, organizers, and financiers of this reprehensible act to be brought to justice without any delay and urge all U.N. Member States… to cooperate actively with all relevant authorities in this regard.' They further emphasized: 'The Quad unequivocally condemns all acts of terrorism and violent extremism in all its forms and manifestations, including cross-border terrorism, and renews our commitment to counterterrorism cooperation.' This marked a clear signal of solidarity with India and reflected a growing strategic convergence on counterterrorism within the Indo-Pacific context. Beyond counterterrorism, the Quad reaffirmed its broader strategic agenda — encompassing maritime and transnational security, economic prosperity, critical and emerging technologies, and humanitarian assistance. The group seeks to evolve into more than a diplomatic forum. As Rubio pointed out, the Quad must become a 'vehicle for action,' with trade and commercial ties playing a pivotal role in ensuring its long-term relevance. Quad Critical Minerals Initiative The highlight of the latest Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting was the launch of the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative – a major geoeconomic move aimed at reducing dependency on China's near-monopoly over rare earth elements and mineral processing. While the joint statement avoided directly naming China, it clearly conveyed the coalition's worry: 'We are deeply concerned about the abrupt constriction and future reliability of key supply chains, specifically for critical minerals… The use of non-market policies and practices for critical minerals, derivative products, and mineral processing technology undermines global supply chains.' The joint statement added: 'Reliance on any one country for processing and refining exposes our industries to economic coercion, price manipulation, and supply chain disruptions.' These declarations underscore the Quad's recognition that the primary challenge posed by China is geoeconomic. Beijing's dominance over mineral supply chains, global trade networks, and strategic manufacturing has enabled it to cultivate economic dependencies across continents – from East Asia to Africa and beyond. These dependencies have become instruments of political coercion. Countries that challenge China's positions on issues such as the South China Sea, human rights, or Taiwan often face subtle, targeted economic retaliation. Unlike formal U.S. sanctions, China's coercive actions are typically informal, embedded within global value chains, and difficult to counter. Even the United States, despite imposing tariffs and pledging to decouple from China, ultimately signed a trade deal with Beijing due to pressure from domestic industries and consumer markets. This episode exposed the limits of strategic autonomy in the face of deep economic interdependence and highlighted how dependency can undermine geopolitical leverage. 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The statement expressed serious concerns over increasing militarization, coercive activities, and interference in offshore resource development, saying, 'We reiterate our strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion… including obstruction of lawful maritime operations and freedom of overflight.' This is a strong signal of solidarity with regional actors like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan, all of whom have faced intimidation from Chinese vessels and air patrols in disputed waters. Importantly, the Quad reaffirmed its commitment to the centrality, unity, and leadership of ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific. While this may appear as routine diplomatic language, it carries deep strategic meaning. ASEAN centrality serves as a buffer against Chinese dominance, especially in Southeast Asia. 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The recently proposed trilateral bloc between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh clearly signals Beijing's intent to reshape the regional order and challenge India's traditional leadership. In this context, the Quad must elevate India's role beyond the maritime sphere and recognize South Asia as a critical front in the broader strategic competition. The condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack was a welcome gesture of solidarity, but deeper, sustained coordination is needed to reflect the region's geopolitical realities. The United States, in particular, must address contradictions in its approach. While it regards India as essential to countering China, it continues to maintain close ties with Pakistan – often at odds with India's security interests – and largely overlooks Beijing's growing footprint in South Asia. This inconsistency weakens Washington's strategic goals. Without aligning its South Asia and Indo-Pacific policies, the U.S. risks promoting a fragmented vision that falls short of being a true Indo-Pacific strategy. If the goal is to empower India to become a net security provider and strengthen its position to counterbalance China, then Washington must support the development of India's strategic capabilities and its interests in the region – even if that includes some strategic accommodation (such as accepting India's defense ties with Russia) or flexible trade arrangements. Failing to do so reduces the coherence of the Quad response to what is, fundamentally, a holistic Chinese challenge spanning military, economic, and diplomatic domains. A fragmented approach will not suffice against such an integrated threat. Conclusion The recent Quad meeting reaffirmed a commitment to a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, while highlighting the centrality of ASEAN. Yet, statements alone are not enough. If the Quad is serious about countering Chinese influence, it must evolve into a comprehensive geoeconomic and geopolitical coalition. This means securing supply chains, investing in infrastructure, aligning South Asia policy with the Indo-Pacific vision, and fully integrating India's strategic concerns. The Quad must act, not just articulate. Only through such a holistic strategy can it hope to maintain balance in a region where China seeks hegemony not only through warships and missiles but through mines, trade, and economic coercion.

US and Vietnam say they have reached agreement to lower tariffs
US and Vietnam say they have reached agreement to lower tariffs

Nikkei Asia

time3 hours ago

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US and Vietnam say they have reached agreement to lower tariffs

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