China Now Dominates Open Source AI. How Much Does That Matter?

The Diplomat

5 days ago

U.S. AI models still control over 70 percent of the market, but a collaborative, open source approach has enabled Chinese labs to punch far above their weight.
U.S. AI models still control over 70 percent of the market, but a collaborative, open source approach has enabled Chinese labs to punch far above their weight. For the second time in six months, a small Chinese artificial intelligence lab has made major waves across the global landscape. Moonshot AI, with just a few hundred employees, recently released its K2 model to remarkable acclaim. On OpenRouter, a platform that tracks which AI models developers actually pay to use, K2 quickly surpassed offerings from well-funded U.S. competitors including xAI and Meta.
This achievement mirrors the success of DeepSeek, another Chinese AI model that made headlines earlier this year. Both share a crucial characteristic: they are open source, meaning their underlying code and architecture are freely available for anyone to examine, modify, and build upon. Among big labs in the United States, only Meta has followed suit. But with the social media giant's latest model widely considered a flop, China is now the undisputed leader in open source AI development.
To understand why this matters requires clarifying what 'open source' means in the context of AI. Open source AI models are free to download but, unlike most open source software, they come with significant operational expenses. When DeepSeek offered free access to consumers, many confused this promotional strategy with the inherent nature of open source models. In reality, all base models require significant computing power, whether it's paid for by the hosting company – as in the case of consumer products or APIs – or the user.
For everyday consumers, the distinction between open-source and closed is invisible. Google's Gemini and OpenAI's ChatGPT offer free basic access. Despite the enthusiasm around DeepSeek's launch, ChatGPT still commands six times as many users globally. The same ranking that showed Moonshot surpassing xAI and Meta has Anthropic and Google alone with majority market share.
Nonetheless, K2 is remarkably efficient. The rates for programmatic access to the best version of the model are comparable to the rates for Google and OpenAI's cheapest models. That is not because K2 is open source, but is in large part thanks to efficiency gains made possible by China's open source AI culture. Moonshot drew heavily from DeepSeek's architecture, to the point that one engineer described K2 as 'fulfilling a prophecy that the DeepSeek team had already made.' This collaborative approach echoes the early days of U.S. AI development, when Google's publication of transformer architecture and release of tools like TensorFlow catalyzed the entire field.
U.S. AI labs have since focused on proprietary models instead. Chinese offerings may become the default choice for researchers looking for models they can modify and customize, which could subtly shape how AI systems understand and interact with the world. Some research suggests Western models reflect Western worldviews, and Chinese models may well do the same. While enthusiasts quickly release 'uncensored' versions, like Perplexity's DeepSeek 1776, which speak freely on topics forbidden in China, more fundamental assumptions about society, relationships, and values may remain deeply embedded in the training.
A growing community of programmers worldwide is now working to adapt and improve these Chinese models for specific uses, potentially accelerating their development. In the words of another Moonshot engineer, 'open-sourcing allows us to leverage the power of the developer community to improve the technical ecosystem. Within 24 hours of our release, the community had already implemented K2 in MLX, with 4-bit quantization [allowing a compressed version of the model to run on Apple devices] and more – things we truly don't have the manpower to accomplish ourselves at this stage.'
But for now, open source models serve primarily specialized purposes: handling sensitive information that can't be sent to commercial services (which is unlikely to be entrusted to Chinese models anytime soon), or running AI on devices disconnected from the internet.
Industry watchers expect Moonshot to soon release a 'reasoning' model designed to match the previous generation of U.S. AI systems. When that happens, we can expect another wave of concern about China's AI progress. Much of this anxiety will be overblown – U.S. models still control over 70 percent of the market on platforms like OpenRouter, and U.S. firms continue to push the boundaries of what's possible while Chinese labs focus on optimization and efficiency.
Nevertheless, K2 represents a significant achievement, particularly given the constraints under which Chinese AI researchers operate. The collaborative, open source approach has enabled Chinese labs to punch far above their weight, just as the United States' strongest open source advocate, Meta, stumbles. Much is yet to be written: Meta has gone on a multibillion dollar spending spree to right their ship and OpenAI will release their own open source model in the coming weeks. But as more developers worldwide turn to Chinese models as their starting point, the long-term implications for global AI development – and the values embedded within these systems – deserve serious consideration.