Met Office verdict on ex-hurricane Erin spoiling the Bank Holiday break
Either way, the system is likely to bring much-needed rain to the UK. For those looking for a late summer mini-break, the main question is whether Erin will affect the Bank Holiday weekend.
By yesterday, the hurricane had re-strengthened to a Category 4 as it battered Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Thousands of homes were left without power as winds reached up to 130mph.
As Erin trundles across the Atlantic, it's like to dwindle to a tropical storm. By the time the system reaches Britain, it's forecast to have developed into a deep area of low pressure.
The Met Office said that, from Bank Holiday Monday (August 25), the forecast 'becomes more complex'. The agency said: 'While warmth is likely to persist, the risk of showers and wind increases, and the exact outcome will depend on Erin's trajectory and its interaction with the jet stream.
'One scenario shows a deep area of low pressure to the west, bringing wet and windy conditions similar to Storm Floris. Another builds a ridge of high pressure, suggesting continued settled and warm weather.'
Holidaymakers can relax: weather models currently agree that Bank Holiday Monday will escape the worst of the weather by the skin of its teeth.
It means a largely fine holiday weekend, with temperatures building again after a largely dry week: GFS forecasts suggest it could even become hot from Sunday (August 24) - they indicate Bank Holiday Monday maximums of 28C in southern and central Britain. Highs of 27C are also predicted in the Welsh border counties.
This may be a little optimistic – and the models agree that west Wales is set to remain cooler either way, especially further north. On Tuesday (August 26), the warmth may be more evening spread over Wales as the heat edges across the country. However northwest Wales may still struggle to feel it, having seen temperatures dip since Saturday, August 16, when Porthmadog was the warmest place in the UK (27.4C).
And it may not always be dry next weekend. In advance of Erin's arrival, showers are possible in northwest Wales.
The first signs of the ex-tropical storm may come on Tuesday morning. The Met Office said its exact path will depend on the jet stream. On some occasions, similar systems like Storm Dexter stalled to the west and drew heat up from the Continent. Storm Floris, on the other hand, brought unsettled weather to northern Britain
The Met Office said: 'The key question is where Erin will sit in relation to the jet stream later in the week. From Monday (August 18) onwards , the most likely scenario is a continuation of the weekend's pattern, with high pressure slightly more centred over the UK. This would sustain the warm southerly flow, particularly in the south.
'However, this setup also introduces the potential for more unsettled weather, with cloud and thundery showers drifting north-eastwards. By Tuesday, forecasting becomes more challenging, as the influence of high pressure diminishes and showery conditions increase from the southwest.'
As things stand, weather models suggest some rain in Tuesday, August 26, possibly heavy in South Wales. More persistent rain is possible on Wednesday, August 27, and this unsettled theme is set to continue for the rest of the week.
On current signals, the Met Office concluded: 'From early to mid-week, high pressure may become increasingly eroded from the west as low pressure and frontal systems start to move in from the Atlantic, leading to more changeable conditions with spells of rain through the remainder of the week.
"Temperatures likely warm or very warm to start before trending towards average.'
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