Kura Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:KURA) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Kura Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:KURA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 76% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.75. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kura Oncology from 14 analysts is for revenues of US$129.4m in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 55% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 22% to US$1.78. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$149.9m and losses of US$1.64 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for Kura Oncology
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$25.75, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Kura Oncology analyst has a price target of US$40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kura Oncology's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Kura Oncology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 142% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 100% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Kura Oncology is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kura Oncology analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Kura Oncology that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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