Polls show major setback for ruling coalition in Japan's upper house election
Japan's ruling coalition is poised to lose its majority in the upper house, exit polls showed on Sunday, intensifying pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just weeks ahead of a critical trade deadline with the United States.
According to NHK, Japan's public broadcaster, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito are projected to win between 32 and 51 seats—short of the 50 required to retain control of the 248-seat chamber. Only half of the seats were contested. Other networks projected even lower figures, with the coalition expected to secure just 41 to 43 seats—its weakest result since the alliance was formed in 1999.
The outcome adds to Ishiba's challenges after the LDP lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. While his position is not immediately at risk, the results are likely to fuel calls within the party for a leadership change.
Opposition parties gained ground by tapping into public anger over rising food prices and the LDP's resistance to cutting the consumption tax. Exit polls revealed strong support for platforms centered on tax relief and stricter immigration policies.
'The LDP was largely playing defence,' noted David Boling of Eurasia Group. 'Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.'
Despite the backlash, the LDP has maintained a fiscally conservative stance, aiming to calm bond markets amid concerns over Japan's massive public debt.
The election setback comes as Tokyo races to conclude a trade deal with Washington before the August 1 deadline, as failure to do so could trigger tariffs on Japanese exports and further strain the country's economy.
Meanwhile, the nationalist Sanseito party emerged as the night's surprise winner, projected to win 10 to 15 seats—up from just one. Running on a hardline anti-immigration platform, the party stirred controversy by warning of a 'silent invasion' by foreigners.
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