Trump's tariff threat shows US-India aren't really allies
New Delhi's diplomats, defense chiefs, and prime ministers have invoked the US alliance as a sign of India's rise — a symbol that it has stepped out of the post-colonial shadow and into the ranks of major global powers. But if this week's events are any indication, those claims may be more illusion than reality.
On Tuesday (July 29), US President Donald Trump — the presumptive GOP nominee and still a loud voice in global politics — threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Indian imports if a long-pending trade deal remains unresolved. 'They are going to pay 25%,' Trump said bluntly, adding with characteristic paradox, 'They're my friends.'
At the same time, Trump once again claimed that during the recent India-Pakistan military flare-up — Operation Sindoor and Operation Bunyan ul Marsoos — five aircraft were 'shot down.' Whether intentional or not, the comment lent weight to Pakistani assertions and left India scrambling to control the narrative of what was billed as a decisive show of strength.
India's foreign policy establishment has long pitched Washington as its most critical strategic partner. Defense pacts, intelligence cooperation, and joint military exercises — particularly naval drills in the Indo-Pacific — were presented as evidence of deepening ties.
But Trump's tariff threat now lays bare a fundamental truth: this relationship is still largely transactional, not transformational.
It was under Trump's first term that India lost preferential trade benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Tariff disputes escalated. US tech firms battled India's data localization laws. Now, the threat of 25% duties shows that the US remains willing to punish India economically, regardless of strategic rhetoric.
What kind of 'major defense partner,' as India is officially designated, faces the same hardball tactics reserved for adversaries?
And then came Trump's battlefield commentary. During a campaign stop, Trump repeated a now-familiar claim: that he helped broker peace between India and Pakistan during their May 2025 conflict, and that five fighter jets were downed during the standoff.
India has never publicly confirmed such losses. Pakistani officials, however, have claimed they downed multiple Indian Rafales. Trump's statement — true or not — undermines India's narrative of military supremacy.
When the world's most recognizable political figure asserts that India lost five jets, and India cannot decisively refute it, it casts doubt on New Delhi's transparency, competence, and strategic control.
This double blow — economic coercion and military humiliation — has serious consequences for India's legitimacy in the Indo-Pacific.
India wants to be seen as a credible counterweight to China, a regional anchor for democratic values and security cooperation. But if its most important Western ally is treating it as a disposable trading partner and publicly amplifying its military setbacks, that legitimacy suffers.
Smaller regional powers — from Vietnam to the Maldives — will begin to ask: Can India really lead? Or is it a middle power still vulnerable to both US pressure and Chinese encirclement?
The answer is clear: Pakistan and China. China benefits from the growing discord between Washington and New Delhi, while Pakistan — once sidelined in Indo-Pacific strategies — now finds itself vindicated.
Trump's 'five jets' statement lends legitimacy to Pakistan's military claims and reinforces the message that India is not the regional hegemon it claims to be.
India may continue to declare that it is a reliable, indispensable US partner. But when economic threats come faster than trade deals — and when public narratives on military engagements are shaped by Trump, not Delhi — the gap between rhetoric and reality is impossible to ignore.
Strategic partnerships are not built on joint statements and ceremonial summits. They are tested under pressure — in moments like this. And right now, the US-India partnership looks more fragile than firm.
Rashid Siddiqui is a student of MPhil Economics at the University of the Punjab. He may be reached at rashidsidiqui84@gmail.com
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