Trump's threats to fire the Fed chair and raise tariffs will decimate the dollar
Does he understand that if he fires Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the Fed will lose anti-inflation credibility and the general level of interest rates will rise, not fall? Does he really believe that Team Trump can design regulation that makes the crypto sector grow to the moon – bitcoin hit $120,000 (£89,000) last week – without causing another financial crisis?
Tariffs are another dubious idea, with countries being threatened if they do not agree to a 'deal' by 1 August. Any country that believes that by bending over it will secure lasting peace is kidding itself. Trump is having fun brandishing tariffs and, while he might pause, he is not going to stop. Besides, he and his acolytes see the tariff weapon as a way to exercise power the United States has always had but never exploited. Trump is not just looking to use tariffs as an economic tool. He sees them as a bludgeon that can be used to impose his will on almost any country on almost any issue.
Over the long run, Trump's retreat from globalisation, combined with his tariff fetishism, are likely to lower US growth while raising interest rates and inflation. It might be a winning strategy for Trump personally by making him the centre of attention, but it is not a winning strategy for the US economy.
And none of this, imposing tariffs, promoting crypto, or attacking the Fed, can be good for the US dollar, the world's reserve currency, which has already plummeted sharply in value this year.
The centrality of the dollar, which is the lingua franca of global trade and finance, has long helped the Americans to enjoy substantially lower interest rates than they would otherwise be paying, perhaps 0.5% to 1% lower. This applies not only to government borrowing but to private mortgages, car loans and business loans.
Trump sees tariffs as a bludgeon that can be used to impose his will on almostany country on almost any issue
The savings amount to hundreds of billions of dollars a year, at a minimum. The dollar gives the US the ability to use financial sanctions in lieu of military intervention, and also gives the US a treasure trove of information on both friends and enemies alike.
Dollar dominance was fraying at the edges even before Trump, especially with the Chinese yuan gradually decoupling its dollar peg, and Chinese authorities developing their own international settlement systems. Europe has also been looking to expand the footprint of the euro. Now, however, with attacks against the Fed, the tariff war, and general undermining of the rule of law, what was going to be a gradual decline in the dollar's influence will surely accelerate.
The dollar is not going to disappear, but its position could become significantly less dominant over the next decade, with the Chinese yuan becoming more important in Asia, and the euro taking back some of the global influence it lost after the European debt crisis. The dollar's loss will also be crypto's gain, especially in the global underground economy,
Trump's rejection of globalisation, and his embrace of chaotic policies, is mostly a lose-lose situation for the US economy that will result in more inflation volatility, higher interest rates, and a spate of financial crises, including in crypto, and possibly surrounding government debt. What will Trump conjure up to distract everyone if the economy turns sour?
Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics at Harvard University and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead
Photograph by Eric Lee/Getty
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
South Africa readying last-minute trade offer to avoid US tariff
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) -South Africa is preparing a last-minute "enhanced" trade proposal at the urging of U.S. officials in hopes of avoiding a 30% tariff which kicks in on Friday, its trade minister said on Thursday. South Africa initially submitted a proposed trade deal to President Donald Trump's administration in May and revised it in June, but received no response. "We're having to navigate a last-minute proposal that's enhanced from the proposal that we had initially given," Trade Minister Parks Tau said on South Africa's 702 radio, adding: "And to tell the truth, it's wait and see." The countdown to the August 1 deadline has stirred fear and uncertainty in South Africa, where the central bank governor has estimated a 30% U.S. tariff would put 100,000 jobs at risk, with the agriculture and automotive sectors hit hardest. The U.S. is South Africa's second-largest bilateral trading partner after China. South Africa exports cars, some manufactured goods, citrus fruits and wine to the U.S. Tau said South Africans spoke to U.S. officials on Wednesday night, both at the level of Washington's embassy in Pretoria and also the U.S. trade representative, but uncertainty lingered on what would happen as the tariff deadline approached. "They (said) they would encourage us to resubmit our proposal, possibly an enhanced proposal, to the United States government," Tau said. A top South African diplomat said on Tuesday that U.S. demands on domestic affirmative-action policies were complicating efforts to secure a trade deal. Bilateral relations have been strained by South Africa's Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies to address the legacy of centuries of racial inequality and its genocide case against Israel at the World Court, which Israel and the U.S. vehemently oppose.
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Acadian Asset Management Inc. Reports Financial and Operating Results for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2025
BOSTON, July 31, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Acadian Asset Management Inc. (NYSE: AAMI) today announced its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. Acadian Asset Management Inc.'s earnings presentation is available at: The Company will hold a conference call and simultaneous webcast to discuss the results at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time today. To listen to the call or view the webcast, participants should: Dial-in Toll Free Dial-in Number: (800) 715-9871 International Dial-in Number: (646) 307-1963 Conference ID: 9046067 Visit for the webcast link (register ahead of time or join immediately prior to the call). A replay of the call will be available beginning approximately one hour after its conclusion either on Acadian Asset Management Inc.'s website, at or by: Dial-in Replay Toll Free Dial-in Number: (800) 770-2030 International Dial-in Number: (609) 800-9909 Conference ID: 9046067 About Acadian Asset Management Inc. Acadian Asset Management Inc. is the NYSE listed holding company of Acadian Asset Management LLC, with approximately $151 billion of assets under management as of June 30, 2025. Acadian offers institutional investors across the globe access to a diversified array of systematic investment strategies designed to meet a range of risk and return objectives. For more information, please visit the Company's website at Information that may be important to investors will be routinely posted on our website. View source version on Contacts Investor Relationsir@ (617) 369-7300 Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
NYSE-parent ICE's second-quarter profit rises on robust trading volume
(Reuters) -Intercontinental Exchange reported an increase in second-quarter profit on Thursday, as it benefited from strong trading volumes in its energy business. The New York Stock Exchange parent reported adjusted earnings of $1 billion, or $1.81 per share, for the quarter ended June 30, compared with $876 million, or $1.52 per share, a year earlier. Exchanges thrive during bouts of market volatility as investors frequently rebalance portfolios to seize opportunities and hedge against risks, driving up trading volumes. U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs triggered volatility in April, while tensions in the Middle East exacerbated in June. The volatility index, a barometer for market uncertainty and Wall Street's most-watched gauge of investor anxiety, spiked to record levels in April before easing as optimism over potential trade deals calmed markets. The company's revenue from trading in energy-related products jumped 27% to $595 million, while revenue from ICE's exchange business, the biggest driver of its revenue came at $1.42 billion in the quarter. Shares of the NYSE parent were up 0.7% in premarket trading. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data