March Madness: Baylor vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions
The No. 9 seed Baylor Bears (20-14) and the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (32-3) meet Sunday at Lenovo Center in Raleigh for an NCAA Tournament East Region second-round game. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Baylor vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Bears ousted No. 8 seed Mississippi State 75-72 in a Friday first-round tilt, winning as 1-point underdogs with the Under (148) cashing. Baylor hit 43.5% (27-for-62) from the field, including 25.0% (6-for-24) from behind the 3-point line. Freshman G Robert Wright III scored a game-high 19 points, while fellow frosh G VJ Edgecombe added 14 points, including a pair of 3-pointers, while grabbing 5 boards.
Baylor is on a 3-0 against-the-spread (ATS) run, which included covers in their 2 Big 12 Tournament games. It's a stark contrast from how the Bears finished the regular season as they went 3-5 straight up (SU) and 0-6-2 ATS in their final 8 games.
The Blue Devils had very little trouble with 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary's out of the MAAC Friday. Duke won 93-49, covering as a 32-point favorite with the Over (140.5) slightly coming through. The Blue Devils hit 50.0% (35-for-70) from the field, and 37.8% (14-for-37) from the 3-point line. G Tyrese Proctor was good for 19 points, including 6-of-8 from behind the arc.
Duke, No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll, has won 12 in a row since a 77-71 loss at Clemson Feb. 8, and it is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 contests with the Over going 8-3. Duke has also won 5 in a row on neutral floors — with a 3-2 ATS showing.
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Baylor vs. Duke odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:05 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Baylor +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | Duke -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
: Baylor +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | Duke -900 (bet $900 to win $100) Against the spread : Baylor +12.5 (-115) | Duke -12.5 (-105)
: Baylor +12.5 (-115) | Duke -12.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Baylor vs. Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
Duke 77, Baylor 66
Backing Duke (-900), risking 9 times the potential return, is not a recommended betting strategy. A $100 wager returns just $11.11 of profit. That's not worth playing straight up or part of a multi-leg wager.
PASS.
BAYLOR +12.5 (-115) is a solid play catching all of these points.
The Bears have the dynamic duo of Edgecombe and Wright, tremendous young building blocks. Are they ready to etch their names into Baylor lore with an upset of the No. 1 seed? It's unlikely. But, Baylor certainly has the depth to make Duke work hard to advance to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils are 1-1 SU/ATS against Big 12 teams this season.
UNDER 143.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over cashed in the Blue Devils' game against Mount St. Mary's, but the Under is 2-1 in their past 3 games, and 3-2 in the previous 5 outings.
The Bears will try to slow the tempo to a crawl. The Under is 6-1 in their past 7. They limited the opposition to 72 or fewer points in 6 of those 7 outings.
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