Buy, Sell or Hold F Stock? Key Insights Ahead of Q1 Earnings
Ford F is slated to release first-quarter 2025 results on May 5, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at breakeven and $35.5 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has moved up by 2 cents over the past seven days. In the year-ago period, the company reported EPS of 49 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests an 11% decline from the year-ago quarter's figure.
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For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for F's automotive revenues is pegged at $162.3 billion, suggesting a decline of 6% year over year. The consensus mark for full-year EPS is $1.22, calling for a 33.7% year-over-year contraction.
In the trailing four quarters, this U.S. legacy automaker surpassed EPS estimates on two occasions, missed once and matched on the other, with the average earnings surprise being 1.21%.
Ford Motor Company price-eps-surprise | Ford Motor Company Quote
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ford this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That's not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Ford has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
While most automakers reported a year-over-year increase in their first-quarter sales volumes, it was not the case with Ford. The company's sales declined 1.3% in the to-be-reported quarter to 501,291 units. The drop was mainly due to the timing of rental fleet sales and the discontinuation of the Ford Edge and Transit Connect. However, retail sales grew 5% during the quarter. Sales of Ford's electrified vehicles, including EVs and hybrids, jumped 25.5% to 73,623 units.
Tesla TSLA was another auto biggie that saw its deliveries drop in the quarter under discussion. It delivered 336,681 EVs, which fell 13% year over year. Meanwhile, Ford's closest peer General Motors GM sold 693,363 units in the first quarter of 2025, up 17% year over year.
Ford had notified on its last earnings call itself that the company will sell fewer internal combustion engine vehicles compared to 2024. Additionally, a shift in product mix and foreign exchange headwinds will drag profits.
Ford had guided breakeven adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2025, marking a sharp drop from $2.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024 and $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to lower volumes, a 20% production cut and plant launch activities.
Here's a rundown of the estimates for Ford's revenues and EBIT for key segments for the three months ended March 31.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Ford Blue unit (comprising ICE and hybrid models) is pegged at $17.6 billion, implying a decrease of 19% year over year. The consensus mark for the segment's EBIT is $275 million, down from $905 million recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Ford model e unit (comprising of electric vehicles) is pegged at $1.5 billion, compared with $115 million in the corresponding period in 2024. The consensus mark for the segment's loss before interest and taxes is $1.17 billion, narrower than $1.32 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the Ford Pro unit (encompassing commercial vehicles and services) is pegged at $16.2 billion, implying a decline of 10% year over year. The consensus mark for the segment's EBIT is $1.5 billion, suggesting a decline from $3 billion recorded in the first quarter of 2024.
Year to date, shares of Ford have inched up 1.1%, outperforming the industry. It has also performed better than Tesla and General Motors, whose shares have plunged 30% and 15%, respectively, so far in 2025.
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From a valuation perspective, Ford is trading relatively cheap. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.24, below the industry's 2.37. The company has a Value Score of A. Meanwhile, Tesla looks too pricey at a forward sales multiple of 8.57, whereas General Motors' P/S sits at 0.25.
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Ford is indeed facing challenges. Widening EV losses, weakening ICE performance and auto tariffs threaten margins and earnings. Its 2025 outlook is soft and doesn't even account for tariffs. Full-year adjusted EBIT is forecast at $7-$8.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024. Warranty costs and generous incentives will weigh on margins and overall profitability. However, not all is gloom and doom.
The combination of Ford Pro's strong order books, increasing demand signals and the successful launch of the all-new Super Duty sets the stage for a highly promising future for the Ford Pro segment. While the 2025 EBIT guidance for the segment implies a year-over-year decline, it is still expected to be the major profit driver for the company. Additionally, Ford's high dividend yield of roughly 6% is quite appealing to income-focused investors. The company targets a payout ratio of 40-50% of free cash flow, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns. Ford's strong liquidity position provides a cushion, with $28 billion in cash and around $47 billion in total liquidity at the end of 2024.
So, all in all, it is worth holding on to Ford stock now. However, investing ahead of its upcoming results doesn't seem a good idea. It's better to wait for management's commentary on tariffs and updated 2025 guidance to see the potential impact.
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Ford Motor Company (F) : Free Stock Analysis Report
General Motors Company (GM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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