Japan's PM accepts ‘harsh' election result as loss of upper house predicted
While the ballot does not directly determine whether prime minister Shigeru Ishiba's minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.
Ishiba's Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito need 50 seats to secure the 248-seat upper chamber in an election where half the seats are up for grabs.
They are forecast to hold 32 to 51 seats, the exit poll by public broadcaster NHK showed. Other broadcasters forecast the ruling coalition would return 41 to 43 seats. If the coalition drops below 46 seats it would mark its worst result since it was formed in 1999.
That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote that has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.
Speaking to NHK two hours after polls closed, Ishiba, 68, said he 'solemnly' accepted the 'harsh result'.
Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said: 'That's right.'
He later told TV Tokyo: 'We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States … we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realising our national interests.'
Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of 1 August to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic party is projected to win 18 to 30 seats, from 22 held previously, NHK's exit poll showed.
The far-right Sanseito party, birthed on YouTube a few years ago, has been the surprise package with its 'Japanese first' campaign and warnings about a 'silent invasion' of foreigners. It is forecast to win 10 to 15 seats in the chamber, up from one held previously, yet it holds only three seats in the lower house.
Opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and welfare spending have struck a chord with voters, the exit polls showed, as rising consumer prices – particularly a jump in the cost of rice – have sowed frustration at the government's response.
'The LDP was largely playing defence in this election, being on the wrong side of a key voter issue,' said David Boling, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
'Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes. Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.'
The LDP has been urging for fiscal restraint, with one eye on a very jittery government bond market, as investors worry about Japan's ability to refinance the world's largest debt pile.
Sanseito, which first emerged during the Covid pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, has dragged once fringe political rhetoric into the mainstream and gained wider support among frustrated voters.
It remains to be seen whether the party can follow the path of other far-right parties with which it has drawn comparisons, such as Germany's AfD and Reform UK.
'I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,' said Yu Nagai, a 25-year-old student who voted for Sanseito earlier on Sunday.
'When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected,' he said after casting his ballot at a polling station in Tokyo's Shinjuku ward.
In Japan, which has the world's oldest population, foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year.
That is still just 3% of the total population, a much smaller fraction than in the US and Europe, but comes amid a tourism boom that has made foreigners far more visible across the country.
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Reuters
30 minutes ago
- Reuters
Out-gunned Europe accepts least-worst US trade deal
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The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Irish premier welcomes trade deal between EU and US
The Irish premier has welcomed a deal between the European Union and the United States, which will see a 15% tariff on most EU imports to the US. The deal was reached during a meeting between Donald Trump and the president of the European Commission on Sunday. The US president met European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to hammer out the final details on the trading relationship between Europe and the US. Reacting to the deal, Taoiseach Micheal Martin said the agreement was very welcome. 'It brings clarity and predictability to the trading relationship between the EU and the US – the biggest in the world,' the Fianna Fail leader said. 'That is good for businesses, investors and consumers. It will help protect many jobs in Ireland. 'The negotiations to get us to this point have been long and complex, and I would like to thank both teams for their patient work. 'We will now study the detail of what has been agreed, including its implications for businesses exporting from Ireland to the US, and for different sectors operating here. 'The agreement is a framework and there will be more detail to be fleshed out in the weeks and months ahead.' Mr Martin said the higher tariffs will have an impact on trade between the EU and the US, which will make it more expensive and more challenging. 'However, it also creates a new era of stability that can hopefully contribute to a growing and deepening relationship between the EU and the US, which is important not just for the EU and the US, but for the global economy,' he added. 'Given the very real risk that existed for escalation and for the imposition of punitively high tariffs, this news will be welcomed by many.' The deal was also welcomed by deputy Irish premier and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Simon Harris, who said it brings clarity to businesses. 'While we have yet to see the detail, I welcome that an agreement has been announced by Commission President von der Leyen and US President Trump,' Mr Harris said in a statement. 'A deal provides a measure of much-needed certainty for Irish, European and American businesses who together represent the most integrated trading relationship in the world. Ireland makes a key contribution to this with the Ireland-US economic relationship valued at more than one trillion euros. 'The US had made clear, and this has been replicated in other recent agreements, which the US has reached with other countries, that a baseline tariff was always going to be part of the outcome. 'I have always stressed that tariffs are damaging and will have a negative impact on companies exporting to the US. 'While Ireland regrets that the baseline tariff of 15% is included in the agreement, it is important that we now have more certainty on the foundations for the EU-US trade relationship, which is essential for jobs, growth and investment. 'President von der Leyen described this as 15% tariffs across the board, all-inclusive.' He said further detail is needed around pharma, aviation and other sectors. Mr Harris said he will examine the details of the agreement over the coming days to establish the effect on Irish businesses and the economy. Earlier, EU commissioner Michael McGrath said the meeting was a 'significant and decisive moment'. Mr McGrath, EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, said it would involve substantive negotiations between both sides. 'It's a significant moment, we hope a decisive moment, and it builds on an enormous amount of work that has been done over quite a period of time,' Mr McGrath said ahead of the meeting. 'President Trump invited President von der Leyen to Scotland for a meeting. 'This follows on the back of intensive negotiations over a number of months. He added: 'It is not a case of turning up and signing on the dotted line. There will be a real discussion that will happen, and it will take on a dynamic of its own, and let's see what happens over the course of the afternoon. 'But from the EU's point of view, we are determined to do all that we can to get a deal for European businesses, because we recognise the cost of uncertainty. 'It manifests in trade and in investment decisions and ultimately in employment and of course tariffs can cost consumers at the end of the day. 'We want a good deal. We have negotiated hard, and we're at a point now where hopefully the two leaders can today bring it to a concluding phase.'
Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Trump has just triumphed over the EU
The diplomats can take a summer break. The stock market can get back to worrying about earnings and debt. And the world's biggest companies can think about product launches and marketing campaigns instead of reorganising supply chains. With the tariff deal today between the EU and the US the trade war is effectively over. And yet as the dust settles, one point will surely become clear. Despite all the chaos, this has turned into a triumph for President Trump – and a humiliation for a weakened EU. The deal is very simple. The EU and the US have agreed a 15 per cent, across-the-board, tariff on European exports into the American market, while at the same time the bloc has agreed to huge new purchases from America. With the threat of 30 per cent levies looming, the EU's President Ursula von der Leyen no doubt felt that she had very little choice but to accept the terms on offer. A full-blown trade war would have dealt a crushing blow to an economy already trapped in a cycle of stagnation. Sure, 15 per cent is better than 30 per cent. But no matter how much the euro-fanatics try to spin it, in reality Donald Trump, as he might put it himself, has knocked this one out of the park. The deal will have huge consequences for transatlantic trade, and will raise huge revenues for Washington. The EU's exports to America are worth over €500 billion a year, and it enjoys a €198.2 billion surplus. We can expect exports to fall a little as the levies are imposed, but it will still raise billions for the American government. It will make at least a small dent in the $1.8 trillion federal deficit, and, more plausibly, allow Trump to cut taxes elsewhere. It will encourage EU companies to massively invest in the US as the only way of remaining competitive in the world's most lucrative market. It will also deal a huge blow to sectors such automotives, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals, where Europe still enjoys some competitive advantages, crippling Germany's already weak economy, and worsening France's already critical budget crisis. And what did the EU get in return for all that? Absolutely nothing. It is meant to be a negotiating super-power. But it does not look that way right now. Even more painful for the bloc will be the knowledge that Brexit Britain, which was meant to have fatally weakened itself in trade negotiations, now has a lower 10 per cent rate on most goods imported into the US. And Ireland looks set to get hammered on pharmaceutical exports, one of its largest industries, which will now face hefty levies. Short of having to ship the Mona Lisa to Mar-a-Lago it is hard to see how it could have worked out better for President Trump. After two decades of relative economic decline, and with crushing taxes and regulation suffocating the life out of its industry, the EU is now too weak to stand up to the US. Its fragility has been painfully exposed – and this deal will only make it worse.
