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Hans India
9 minutes ago
- Hans India
Friendship should not lead to dictating terms on nation's sovereignty
The Indian dairy industry is a major source of livelihood for millions of rural households, particularly women. The imports of enfamil milk at prices lower than domestic milk will gradually destabilise the rural economy. The research wing of the State Bank of India (SBI) has warned that the Indian economy will suffer a staggering loss of one lakh crores if imports of dairy products from the US are allowed One cannot lag behind when it comes to appreciating the stand taken by the Indian government with regard to purchasing Russian crude oil at cheaper rates, despite the US threat. India is refining the crude oil and selling them to other countries through exports. However, it is supplying diesel, petrol and other petroleum products to people of India at cheaper rates to reduce the burden of rising prices of other essential commodities. This lust for profit without any concern towards the misery of the common people. Thanks to the Ministry of External Affairs, which is continuing longstanding traditional friendship with Russia right from the days of the erstwhile Soviet Union, which supported the newly independent India in times of distress. The Indian people cannot forget that while the country was fighting against the military junta of the then Pakistan in order to liberate Bangladesh from its clutches, the then Soviet Union sent submarines in support of the Indian army. The Soviet Union has extended its cooperation in building oil refineries in India. It has also sent many technicians to repair the oil refineries, as and when required. India continues to purchase crude oil from Russia and refining it and exporting to other countries. Now the US government has started pressuring India not to purchase crude oil from Russia. The same US administration had long back suggested that India must purchase crude oil from Russia. Why this dual policy? If it is opposing Russia, then why is it still importing Russian goods? They want India to purchase artificial infants' milk. The Indian dairy farmers, in fact the entire farmers community, refused to purchase enfamil from the USA. The future impact is a major concern for the Indian dairy sector and its dependent farmers. This will result in market disruption and adversely impact farmers' livelihoods. Right from the beginning, India has taken a stand to promote breast feeding and has strictly prohibited marketing of formula milk as a substitute for breastmilk. The Indian dairy industry is a major source of livelihood for millions of rural households, particularly women. The imports of enfamil milk at prices lower than domestic milk will gradually destabilise the rural economy. The research wing of the State Bank of India (SBI) has warned that the Indian economy will suffer a staggering loss of ₹ one lakh crores if imports of dairy products from the US are allowed. This attitude of the USA is nothing but interfering with India's sovereignty. This approach is quite contrary to accepted norms of the World Trade Organisation. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi should pass on the profits to the citizens by reducing prices of petroleum products, getting free from purchasing Russian crude oil, refining and exporting. The United States is still importing many items from Russia despite the trade war' continuation. Even after imposing high tariffs on Russian products, the USA is still importing uranium for its nuclear plants, palladium for manufacturing electric vehicles and fertilizers for agriculture and chemicals for pharmaceutical industries. The USA is also importing iron, steel, coal and many precious metals, which are playing a vital role in American industry overall. Washington continues to import many machinery parts of aircraft as well. Will it stop these imports after cautioning India against importing crude oil from Russia? The US is also threatening China, Turkey and other countries to stop import of Russian products within the next 50 days. But can the US stop importing materials from Russia? The Global Trade Research Initiative has categorically stated that the US approach towards India in regard to imports of Russian crude oil is most unjustified. But putting a ban on oil imports to US, will result in American consumers shelling more. (The writer is National Secretary of the CPI)
Hans India
9 minutes ago
- Hans India
Time for investors to stay cautious amid global uncertainty
The Independence week saw both the benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty finally break free from their six-week losing streak, registering a healthy 1.10 per centgain and closing at 80,598 and 24,631 respectively. The rebound has brought relief after a prolonged phase of market weakness. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Independence Day, a 'double Diwali' bonanza for the people of India, saying that next generation of Goods & Services Tax (GST) reforms will be rolled out by October this year. The GST rationalisation will help lower tax rates, lower the cost of daily essentials, benefit the MSMEs and boost the economy. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman indicated that the government envisages two slabs — standard and merit — plus special rates for select items, replacing the current four brackets of 5%, 12%, 18 per centand 28%, with luxury and sin goods attracting an additional levy. Trump and Putin met in Alaska, but failed to reach a breakthrough on ending the war in Ukraine, despite optimism from the US president. Post meeting, Trump's statement that 'he will not have to think of retaliatory tariffs on countries buying Russian oil right now but may have to 'in two or three weeks' now offers at least a temporary relief to countries like India.' It seems that an additional tariff of 25 per centon India beginning August 27 for importing crude oil from Russia, will be on a backburner feel observers. Trump administration's imposing a 50 per centtariff on Indian imports is not a reason to sell Indian equities. Instead, it's a reason to buy them since 'it is only a matter of time before Trump backs off the stance, which is not in America's interest' say market players. In the near term, market direction will be dictated by developments post Trump-Putin meeting, expectations over contours of GST reforms, international crude oil prices, rupee-dollar movement and FII behavior. In the coming week, a cautious and stock-specific approach is advised. With the Indices still consolidating below key resistance levels and no breakout confirmation, aggressive buying should be avoided. FII Chit Chat: FIIs are selling Indian equities like there's no tomorrow, with secondary market outflows in 2025 already hitting record levels — and four months of the year still to go. Year-to-date, FIIs have offloaded more than Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the secondary market, surpassing all previous annual records. The sell-off is being driven by slowing corporate earnings, unattractive valuations, heightened geopolitical uncertainties, and more appealing opportunities in overseas markets. Indo-US trade deal uncertainty and a potential extension of US-China negotiations are additional factors contributing to FII outflows. China, after years of underperformance relative to India, now appears poised for a potential tariff advantage. In valuation terms, India's benchmark indices are trading at just over 20 times one-year forward earnings, above their 10-year average of 19.3 times. It is pertinent to observe that FIIs are actively participating in primary markets despite the exodus from secondary market. Global 'hot' money in search of short-term returns is attracted to 15–20 percent listing gains in IPO segment. Some IPOs feature unique business models in which FIIs are willing to take long-term positions. Expect limited upside and possible downside in Indian markets over the next two to three quarters. A cautious, defensive, and tactical approach is must. Be prepared to invest in a down market and to 'get out' in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH Snapping a six-week losing streak, markets ended nearly a percent higher during the week ended. Despite exuberant start, the momentum moderated during the later part of the week amid mixed signals. The recovery was broad-based, led by Healthcare, Auto, and IT counters on the back of bargain hunting and strong domestic demand expectations. Consumer discretionary stocks also gained nearly 2%, reflecting optimism around consumption. S&P Global upgraded India's long-term unsolicited sovereign credit rating from 'BBB-' to 'BBB', reflecting a more stable economic outlook for the India. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for Nifty was seen at the 25,000 and 24,700 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 24,600 and 24,500 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, whereas marginal Put open interest at the 55,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 10.87%, while Put options concluded at 11.49%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.14%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.93 for the week. The options data and PCR suggest a phase of short-term consolidation in the market. The PCR fluctuating between 0.78 and 1.08 indicates a balanced sentiment, with no signs of extreme bullish or bearish positioning. Nifty has bounced back and is now trading above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while Bank Nifty continues to trade above the same. The long-term trend remains intact and bullish. In the upcoming sessions, Nifty may test resistance levels at 24,800 and 25,000, while support is seen around 24,400–24,200. Stocks looking good are Apollo Hosp, Mannapuram, Nuvama, PFC, Siemens, Supreme Inds and Uno Minda. Stocks looking weak are Astral, Blue Star, Bandhan Bank, Jubilant Foods, Kalyan Jewellers, PGEL and Tata Chemicals. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice-chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
Business Standard
9 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Market opens on strong note; Nifty above 24,950 mark; VIX rises 2.50%
The domestic equity indices traded with major gains in early trade supported by hopes of big changes to the GST system and a recent upgrade to Indias credit rating. During his Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government plans to bring generational GST reforms before Diwali, which could benefit sectors like auto, FMCG, and consumer goods. However, global worries remain, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and possible 25% US tariffs on Indian products starting August 27. The Nifty traded above the 24,950 mark. Auto, consumer durables and private bank shares advanced while pharma and IT shares declined. At 09:30 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 1,037.49 points or 1.34% to 81,662.28. The Nifty 50 index rallied 348.40 points or 1.41% to 24,983.70. In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index added 1.02% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.86%. The market breadth was strong. On the BSE, 1,765 shares rose and 655 shares fell. A total of 214 shares were unchanged. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,926.76 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3,895.68 crore in the Indian equity market on 14 August 2025, provisional data showed. Stocks in Spotlight: Vodafone Idea added 3.74%. The companys consolidated basis, net loss stood at Rs 6,608.1 crore in Q1 FY26 higher than Rs 6,432.1 crore in Q1 FY25. Revenue from operations rose 4.9% YoY to Rs 11,022.5 crore from Rs 10,508.3 crore in Q1 FY25. Operationally, ARPU improved 15% YoY to Rs 177 from Rs 154 in Q1 FY25, driven by tariff revisions and customer upgrades. The 4G/5G subscriber base rose to 127.4 million versus 126.7 million last year. Alembic Pharmaceuticals rose 1.02% after the company has received final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) Tretinoin Cream USP, 0.025%. Numbers to Track: The yield on India's 10-year benchmark federal paper rose 0.04% to 6.444 from the previous close of 6.402. In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 87.4175 compared with its close of 87.5900 during the previous trading session. MCX Gold futures for 3 October 2025 settlement rose 0.10% to Rs 99,941. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, was up 0.01% to 97.86. The United States 10-year bond yield fell 0.46% to 4.307. In the commodities market, Brent crude for October 2025 settlement shed 6 cent or 0.09% to $65.79 a barrel. Global Markets: Markets in Asian traded in a mixed manner on Monday after U.S.-Russia summit concluded without a ceasefire. As per media reports, the U.S. President Donald Trump now seemed more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal with Ukraine instead of a ceasefire first, after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. The reports further state that Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders later on Monday to discuss the next steps, though actual proposals are vague as yet. US stocks were mixed on Friday as Wall Street tempered its rate-cut hopes amid economic data this week that showed higher-than-expected wholesale inflation and a rise in July retail sales. The Dow rose 0.08%, or 34.86 points, to 44,946.12. The S&P 500 slipped 0.29%, or 18.74 points, to 6,449.80; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 0.4%, or 87.693 points, to 21,622.977. The US Census Bureau data released Friday morning showed retail sales rose 0.5% in July from the prior month. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment deteriorated in August, falling for the first time in four months as inflation expectations jumped in the longer term. The US Fed will continue to be in focus this week as central bank members travel to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual economic policy symposium.
