Why Bangladesh Army Chief's Russia Tilt May Be Good For Indiaa

NDTV

19-05-2025

While Indian attention has been focused on our western borders since the Pahalgam tragedy of April 22, some major geopolitical shifts have been taking place on India's eastern front.
First is the banning of the Awami League party by Bangladesh's interim government. The party, founded by Bangladesh's founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been ruling the country for much of its existence as a sovereign state since December 1971, till the uprisings in the country last August forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee to India, where she remains since.
The second major geopolitical shift, which has far-reaching ramifications for India, is the Bangladesh interim government's apparent plan to create a "humanitarian corridor', with the US and the UN backing the Rakhine state in Myanmar. The entire state's border with Myanmar is controlled by the rebel Arakan Army. And, since Rohingya refugees have been fleeing the state due to the atrocities committed by the Arakan Army, the corridor, it is alleged, is less a humanitarian undertaking and more of a passage intended to facilitate supplies to the Arakan Army to help it fight Myanmar's junta.
Parallel to these have been rumours circulating about a possible "coup" within the army, that is, against the current army chief, General Waqar uz Zaman. Seen in this context, the General's visit to Moscow last month becomes particularly significant, especially to India.
On April 7, Zaman paid an official visit to Russia, where he met with the Russian Deputy Defence Minister, General A. Fomin, and the Army Chief General, Oleg Salyukov, along with representatives of defence firms Rostec, Rosoboronexport, and Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear agency overseeing the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Bangladesh.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the sides "discussed prospects for cooperation in the defence sector and expressed mutual determination to further strengthen the existing friendly relations between the armies and peoples of Russia and Bangladesh'.
Soon after, Russian ships Admiral Tributs, Admiral Panteleyev, and the tanker Pechenga, from the Russian Pacific Fleet Squadron, docked at Chattogram Port. This was the first time Russian naval ships had visited Bangladesh in 50 years, in a "goodwill" visit, marking a significant milestone in the relationship between the two countries, according to the Russian Embassy in Bangladesh.
The visit is significant for its timing, context and subtext too. First is the fact that it comes under the watch of an interim government. Following the tumultuous events of last August, Bangladesh remains under a caretaker government headed by Mohammed Yunus. The Yunus administration is closely aligned with Bangladesh's Islamist lobby. Increasingly, radical outfits and elements have been gaining power and control in the country under Yunus's watch.
The trip also comes after two high-profile visits to and from Bangladesh. The first was the visit to Dhaka by a top US Army officer, the Pacific Deputy Commanding General, Lt Gen Joel P. Vowell, who held meetings with Zaman. There has been a lot of speculation regarding the visit, with rumours swirling around for a long time about US interest in Myanmar and the stationing of American bases in the region as part of the West's Indo-Pacific strategy. The Bangladeshi media reported that Vowell and Zaman's discussions revolved around military interoperability, security cooperation, and potential defence procurement from the US.
Soon after, Muhammad Yunus left for China on a four-day visit.
Yunus owes much of his power and pelf to the US, particularly to the Democratic administration of former President Barack Obama. Now, the deposed Sheikh Hasina had on occasions voiced fear about the US wanting to set up bases in Bangladesh, which she would not have allowed and due to which, she says, the US wanted her ouster. To that end, though closely aligned with India, the Hasina government also tried to hedge itself by opening up Bangladesh to Chinese investments, defence deals and joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The current Trump administration in the US is not too fond of Yunus, their dislike dating back to 2016, when the latter had made a huge donation to the Clinton Foundation at a time when Hillary Clinton was running for president against Trump. He had also made unsavoury remarks when Trump won. Well into his new term in office, Trump has not demonstrated any particular interest in Dhaka, while calling it out for attacks against minorities. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current US administration's approach to the interim government, Yunus has been courting China.
In Beijing, Yunus secured a pledge for $2.1 billion in Chinese investments, loans and grants for Bangladesh. Numerous Chinese companies pledged $1 billion to the Chinese Industrial Economic Zone in Chattogram. China also promised $400 million in loans to upgrade the deep-sea Mongla port and accelerate talks on a potential free-trade agreement.
On the same trip, Yunus also roiled India by inviting China to invest in Bangladesh, positioning the country as the 'only guardian of the ocean for all this region' and the gateway to 'landlocked' India's Northeast. In response to that posturing earlier this month, India cancelled a transhipment agreement that had allowed Bangladesh's exports to transit through Indian ports. This is not all. As much as 70% of Bangladesh's defence procurements come from China.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh has also seen an abysmal descent into radicalism and extremism. Minorities are being targeted, and what had seemed like just a fringe movement till some time ago - the demand to establish a Sharia state in Bangladesh - is increasingly taking centre-stage. Along with the main Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, sundry affiliated groups have also sprung up, often armed. Women, in particular, are at the receiving end of the tensions. At the time of writing this piece, Islamist groups in Bangladesh were issuing threats and warnings to the interim government against implementing the proposals of a women's reforms commission.
Bangladesh's institutions lie broken, and the police is a spent force. Only the army is intact, anti-radical, and is often left facing off with the Islamists. Zaman has several times hinted at the failing law and order in the country. Numerous army meetings were followed by the deployment last month of military personnel and security forces across the country, especially in Dhaka, sparking rumours about an imminent coup. In fact, rumours also swirled about Zaman facing a coup from Islamist sections in the army itself. In a video that has now gone viral, Zaman was found saying, "Later you will say I did not warn you, so I am warning you. If you cannot forget your differences and work together, if you keep mudslinging at each other, fighting each other and killing each other, the country's and this community's freedom will go in vain."
Bangladesh's interim government has opened up doors for greater engagement with Pakistan, including contacts between the militaries of the twocountries and the ISI. Given the Islamist tilt that the Pakistani army has taken under its current chief, General Asim Munir, who earlier headed the ISI, it is quite possible that Zaman may be pitted against more Islamist elements within the Bangladesh army. This would be welcomed by both Yunus and his backers.
Against this backdrop, Zaman's Moscow visit fulfilled three objectives. One, it threw a gauntlet to Yusuf, challenging the interim government, and signalling that the army was in charge and could take over if necessary. The second goal was to balance China's presence, especially in Bangladesh's defence sector; as much as 70% of Bangladesh's military procurement has been from China. The third thing the visit did was demonstrate that Bangladesh does not wish to align itself with any block and wants to retain its strategic autonomy, while diversifying the country's military alliances and strengthening defence ties with Russia.
In this context, and especially in the wake of the Pulwama attacks and Operation Sindoor, the entry of Russia in this equation can be beneficial. Both India and Russia have a long history of cooperation in Bangladesh. Indeed, the Liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 owed its success partly to Russian support in the UN Security Council, and militarily too. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, being built by Russia in Bangladesh - according to reports, it's the country's most expensive infrastructural project - has some Indian component too. When sanctions on Russian oil were imposed in the wake of the Ukraine war in 2022, Dhaka used Indian ports to offload Russian oil. The two nations can once again cooperate together with General Zaman to keep Islamists at bay, ensuring Dhaka's multipolar approach in its external relations.
Against Russia's boycott by the West, developing relations with Bangladesh converges neatly with Moscow's pivot to the global south, including Asian countries. The army is the only institution battling the rising tide of Islamism in Bangladesh, and India should support it. The Yunus-led government has already enabled Pakistan's entry into Bangladesh, strengthened ties with Turkey, and has now asked Azerbaijan, another country inimical to India, to open its embassy there. A Russian presence in Bangladesh, instead of resurrecting Cold War alignments, might just enable multipolarity in the Bay of Bengal region, balancing out the presence of extra-regional actors here.