How might Iran retaliate against Israel? Five potential scenarios
As talks attempting to secure a nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran drag on, Israel has launched a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. A conflict with Iran would be 'messy', the US has warned, and would risk plunging the entire region into war.
• Israel attacks Iran — follow live
Despite being severely weakened over the past couple of years by sanctions and becoming increasingly isolated, Iran still has the capacity to destabilise both the region and the global economy. So how might Iran respond?
Iran has thousands of medium-range missiles that can reach US bases scattered across the region, including sites in neighbouring Iraq, and the al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. In 2020, it attacked airbases in Iraq that hosted American troops after the military commander Qasem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike.
• Why Israel is attacking Iran
There were no US deaths because the base was evacuated in time, having been given warning by Iran. An attack now could target several bases at once and employ Iranian proxies and allies in Iraq and Yemen, making it difficult to intercept the Iranian missiles.
The Middle East produces roughly 30 per cent of the world's oil supply, much of it in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. In 2019, a missile and drone attack on an oil installation that Saudi Arabia said was sponsored by Iran temporarily halved Saudi production. It took offline 5 per cent of the world's supply.
Iran has since drawn closer to Saudi Arabia and other countries, but it has suggested that it could target regional oil fields if its nuclear sites came under attack. The challenge for Israel and the US would be to strike as many missile batteries as they could in the first wave of any attack, to lessen the impact of an Iranian retaliation.
The Persian Gulf acts as a key conduit for oil shipments, with up to 30 per cent of global oil passing the Strait of Hormuz, and a conflict could bring shipping to a halt.
Britain's maritime agency, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, has already advised ships travelling in the region to be cautious. In the past, Iran has blown up ships in the area to put pressure on other Gulf states and the US.
Iran has threatened to attack Israel again if Israel strikes against its nuclear sites. In October, in retaliation for Israel bombing Iranian missile production facilities and air defences, Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel.
These were mostly intercepted by Israeli air defences, with support from the US, Britain and France, but multiple missiles made it past the aerial defences, landing in an airfield hosting a fleet of F35 jets only a few hundred metres from the headquarters of the Mossad spy agency.
For decades, Iran's main ally, Hezbollah, has acted as a deterrent against Israel. However, the group has been decimated, as has Hamas in Gaza. Iran still has Houthi allies in Yemen, who regularly fire missiles at Israel, and proxy forces in Iraq, which have also attacked Israel and US bases in Iraq and Syria.
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