In South Korea, continuity with cautious progressivism

Hindustan Times

18-06-2025

Earlier this month, South Korea elected a new president, Lee Jae-myung, in a snap election, ending the six-month political crisis that had engulfed the country. This crisis began with then President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law in December last year, followed by his impeachment by the parliament and subsequent removal from office by the constitutional court. The high voter turnout -- nearly 80% -- illustrated the public's deep concern over democracy and desire for change. Lee Jae-myung, representing the opposition Democratic Party, won with an 8-percentage vote margin against the ruling People's Power Party candidate, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, who secured 41% and 8.3% of the vote, respectively.
Lee's victory marks a notable comeback, considering he had lost to Yoon in the 2022 election by less than a single percentage point. The backlash against the declaration of martial law undoubtedly played a crucial role, galvanising support for the opposition. Internal divisions within the People's Power Party, particularly concerning Kim Moon-soo's candidature, further weakened its position. The Reform Party, a splinter group from the People's Power Party led by Lee Jun-seok, also siphoned off conservative votes.
President Lee faces a daunting array of challenges. The most pressing need is to unify a deeply divided nation. Notably, significant segments of the population remained supportive of Yoon Suk Yeol through his impeachment and removal. Fostering a sense of national unity will be a critical task. Economic uncertainties also loom large. South Korea's economy has seen a growth slowdown amid the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff war and an intensifying trade war between the US and China. On the positive side, unlike Yoon, who believed his agenda was being stifled by the Opposition's supermajority in parliament and resorted to the extreme measure of declaring martial law, Lee will likely benefit from his party's dominance in the parliament.
Beyond domestic issues, Lee will also have to navigate a complex, shifting regional environment in the wake of Trump's return to office, an intensifying US-China rivalry, and a reinvigorated North Korea with its close security alignment with Russia. Over the last three decades, government transitions in South Korea have been marked by dramatic shifts in foreign policy. While both conservatives and progressive camps view Seoul's alliance with the US as central to security policy, they differ on the extent to which Korean foreign policy is centred on the alliance, with the progressives seeking more autonomy.
Lee's progressive predecessor, Moon Jae-in (president during 2017-22), adopted a region-focussed foreign policy approach that prioritised engagement with North Korea, balancing relations with the US and China, and diversification of South Korea's diplomatic ties beyond its traditional partners. Amid deterioration of Korea-Japan relations and a cautious engagement with the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, his New Southern Policy put renewed focus on Asean and India. However, the conservative Yoon administration adopted a globally-oriented foreign policy agenda with the alliance with the US at its core and an outreach to Nato amid the Russia-Ukraine war. While significantly improved ties with Japan paved the way for US-Japan-South Korea trilateral security cooperation and a proactive Indo-Pacific strategy, he took a principled reciprocity-based approach to China and a hawkish stance towards North Korea.
The temptation to continue with the progressive foreign policy template will be quite natural, but President Lee is likely to be more pragmatic with the changed regional and international environment. His choice of experienced, retired diplomats as advisors during the campaign and likely for key foreign policy positions in the administration signals this.
A pragmatic foreign policy will entail a moderate stance on North Korea, less engagement-focused than President Moon but also less hawkish than Yoon. However, there will be significant continuity from the Yoon presidency on the US-Korea alliance, building a forward-looking partnership with Japan, and promoting US-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation. Instead of a broader Indo-Pacific focus, Lee will likely concentrate on the role of the US-Korea alliance and the US-Japan Korea trilateral to address Korean Peninsula issues, particularly North Korea's nuclear programme. This allows flexibility in improving relations with China and Russia. During the campaign, Lee also articulated the need to strengthen ties with the Global South. This might look like an expansive version of Moon's New Southern Policy driven by twin objectives of diplomatic and economic diversification and reducing Seoul's dependence on the great powers.
The six-month-long political upheaval — from the declaration of martial law to a peaceful snap election — illustrates the ability of Korean democracy to withstand internal shocks. Only time will tell how and whether President Lee can successfully unite the country and adjust South Korea's position within the evolving regional geopolitical landscape.
Jojin V John is assistant professor and director, Korea Centre, Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala. The views expressed are personal.