The week in charts: Monsoon cheer, India's GDP rank, IIP slump
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has marginally raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, while April's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7%. Meanwhile, data continues to contradict recent claims by NITI Aayog's CEO that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy.
Monsoon marvel
The IMD now expects rainfall during the June–September monsoon season to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), up from its April forecast of 105%. Rainfall in June alone is projected at 108% of LPA.
Read this | Why a bountiful monsoon matters more this year, in five charts
Rainfall is also likely to be above normal in the Monsoon Core Zone — India's key rain-fed agricultural belt. With the rains arriving early in several states, the outlook is positive for kharif crop output.
Rank ruckus
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam recently claimed that India had already overtaken Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy and that the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed it. However, the IMF's latest data from April 2025 World Economic Outlook shows India's GDP for fiscal year 2025 at $3.909 trillion, below Japan's $4.026 trillion for the calendar year 2024, keeping India in the fifth place.
Read this | Beyond the buzz: Has India really surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy?
India is projected to surpass Japan only in FY26, with $4.187 trillion versus Japan's $4.186 trillion.
Share sell-off
$1.35 billion: That's the value of shares IndiGo co-founder and promoter Rakesh Gangwal sold in a block deal on Tuesday, Mint reported. Gangwal and his Chinkerpoo Family Trust offloaded 22.1 million shares, or a 5.7% stake, at ₹5,230.5 each in InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, which operates IndiGo. Following a settlement with co-founder Rahul Bhatia, Gangwal has been gradually reducing his stake in the airline. He sold a 5.83% stake on 29 August 2024, after offloading an identical stake on 11 April 2024.
Output slump
India's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, marking an eight-month low, mainly due to a sharp decline in electricity and mining production. Manufacturing growth also moderated to 3.4%, though a sharp rise in capital goods output (20.3%) signalled positive investment momentum. While consumer durables held steady, non-durables remained in contraction.
With lower temperatures reducing power demand and base effects turning unfavourable, factory output in May 2025 is expected to dip below 2%, a note by India Ratings and Research said.
Staff squeeze
For the first time in five years, Tata Motors' workforce shrank in FY25. It was down 3% to 58,442 employees amid falling demand for vehicles. This is in sharp contrast to the previous fiscal year when the workforce saw a 6% increase, a Mint report said. The decline was mainly in non-managerial staff, which fell to 45,486 from 47,495 the previous year.
Meanwhile, median salary hikes for senior executives slowed to 3% from 15% the previous year. However, the company said drop in employee count reflected year-end adjustments rather than business conditions.
Vodafone's woes
₹6,000 crore: That's the value of bank guarantees submitted by Vodafone Idea to the government, a Mint report said. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of adjusted gross revenue (AGR)-related petitions on 19 May, Vodafone informed the court that it may not survive the fiscal year without loans tied to AGR relief. Lenders now await the telecom department's decision on these guarantees. Invoking them would worsen Vodafone's financial crisis.
While the government has the power to do so, analysts believe it may refrain, prioritising sector stability over immediate recovery.
Trade pacts
Global trade dynamics are shifting from multilateralism to country-to-country ties, with regional trade agreements (RTAs) becoming more prominent. As of May 2025, there are 375 RTAs in force globally, up sharply over the past two decades. With 19 RTAs, India ranks at the 11th place, behind China, reflecting its increasing trade engagement, an analysis by howindialives.com shows.
Developed countries lead in agreements that often go beyond tariffs. India's RTAs, like the one with the UAE, reflect this evolving trend toward deeper and cross-regional trade partnerships.
Chart of the week: Silent strain
Marriages in India drastically alter women's daily lives, burdening them with household chores, a Mint analysis of pan-India Time Use Survey showed. Post-marriage, women spend 27% of their day on unpaid domestic duties, up from 6% when unmarried, while men's share rises only marginally from 1% to 3%.
Follow our data stories on the 'In Charts" and 'Plain Facts" pages on the Mint website.
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