The TACO President? Why I refuse to bet against Trump the deal maker - or his chances of reeling in the biggest prize of all...
That's been the slur levelled by some financial traders amid the many twists and turns of the tariff wars waged by the 47th president against America's competitors.
The big threats, the really big threats, simply never come true has been the claim.
Take the plans for a gargantuan 145 per cent levy on Chinese goods. These have settled at an effective rate of around 30 per cent, which is serious, but not so very different from the 25 per cent charged on imports under the Biden administration.
But no one is calling Trump a chicken after the extraordinary bombing mission that took out much of Iran 's nuclear processing capacity last month.
Flying B2 stealth bombers loaded with 30,000lb 'bunker busting' bombs into the heart of Iran was truly audacious move and one that it was widely predicted no president would dare to make.
In truth, however, the claim that Trump was the TACO president was always false – and that's because, even now, Trump's critics still have no idea about how he actually works.
Why bomb Iran, at the risk of angering his own MAGA base? Why do it when serious experts were warning that even those giant payloads might not have been enough to seriously knock the mullahs off course? Iran is almost certain to acquire a nuclear bomb at some stage down the road.
But when it comes to Trump, it's all about the deal, stupid. And the Middle East is a great example of the president at work.
However intractable the war in Gaza might seem, Trump wants an end to it.
Now wheels are in motion. Hamas and Israel are already talking in Doha.
The Israeli Prime Minister is due in Washington this week and, although he's not yet landed, Benjamin Netanyahu already knows the terms.
Trump bombed Iran and now Netanyahu must fulfil his part of the deal bring the hostilities to a close, even though to do so, could collapse his government - and place not just his political career but his liberty in jeopardy.
Hence another Trump intervention: those extraordinary demands that Israel drop charges of bribery and fraud still faced by Netanyahu – which he denies.
Unwarranted interference in the justice system of a friendly power? Another late-night rush of blood to the head by an insomniac president?
No, a signal from Trump that an end to the Gazan bloodshed is imperative, even if that means Israel's Prime Minister avoids a trial.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, but an Israeli court has just delayed the trial on undisclosed diplomatic and security grounds.
Whatever the criticisms of Trump, he has a deep abhorrence of needless killing. And he is driven by this conviction: there has to be a deal to get the outcome that works all round, even if that means using threats, drama and brinkmanship.
It's true, of course, that his play in the Middle East might not work – but there again, it might. And no one else has come close to striking at the heart of Iran or bringing Irael to heel.
Sure, Trump didn't end the war in Ukraine on day one. Sure, the Israeli hostages have yet to be returned, despite his threats and promises.
But if one thing was certain about his moribund predecessor, Joe Biden, it's that nothing at all was going to happen.
With fire after fire breaking out in the world kitchen, meanwhile, someone has to act.
Ukraine, China, the destructive forces of globalisation and immigration, the failure of the West to spend on defence… on these and many other issues, Trump has forced a conversation that simply wasn't taking place.
Which means that however theatrical his initial boasts might have been, America is already in a better situation.
There is also a personal stake for the arch deal maker - of course. Trump has made no secret of his wish for a Nobel Peace Prize, or his belief that he merits the award for his leadership in the Middle East.
And however outlandish such a prospect might seem, I, for one, am unlikely to bet against it.
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