April 23, 2025 Joann Muller

Axios

01-05-2025

It's Wednesday and I'm feeling nostalgic. Remember when you were a kid, riding in the back seat, and you'd pump your arm to get passing truck drivers to blow their horns?
Now that trucks are going driverless, who will toot the horn for your grandkids? 🤔
🍎 Mark your calendars: Axios returns to NYC during #NYTechWeek for our AI+ NY summit on Weds., June 4, featuring actor/filmmaker/entrepreneur Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Runway CEO Cristóbal Valenzuela, and more. Interested in joining? Let us know here.
Let's get truckin' ..... 1,420 words, a 5.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Driverless trucks are here
Drivers along a 200-mile stretch of I-45 between Dallas and Houston should get ready for something new: The semi-truck in the next lane might not have anyone in the driver's seat.
Why it matters: Autonomous trucking companies have been testing their fleets on Texas highways for several years, but always with backup safety drivers in the cab.
Now, one company, Aurora Innovation, says it plans to go completely driverless, a key milestone that promises to reshape the trucking industry.
Driving the news: After years of development, Pittsburgh-based Aurora is launching driverless operations this month on a popular freight route between Dallas and Houston.
The first autonomous truck is expected to roll down I-45 in the coming days, although Aurora officials declined to share any details.
The company has said it will begin slowly, with one truck, and will gradually expand the fleet over time.
The big picture: Trucking is the backbone of the American economy, yet the industry is strained by high driver turnover rates, supply chain inefficiencies and rising costs.
Autonomous trucks can help alleviate these challenges, advocates say.
Critics, however, worry about inadequate safety oversight, cybersecurity threats and job reductions.
What they're saying:"Everybody is looking at the same economics," Jeff Farrah, CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association, tells Axios.
"The federal government is saying we have to move 50% more freight by 2050, but there's a shortage of drivers. How do I solve this puzzle with more freight to move and less drivers to do it?"
The other side: Members of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association are skeptical of AV trucking companies' safety claims, especially since there are no federal regulations for AVs.
"It's absurd that AVs, which are unproven and unmanned, are given more latitude on American highways than professional drivers with years of experience like me are given," Lewie Pugh, the group's executive vice president, said in an interview.
Where it stands: While the number of robotaxi companies has shrunk, at least 10 companies are developing driverless technology for trucks.
Most expect to "pull the driver" — or go fully autonomous — on public roads later this year or sometime in 2026.
They all plan to begin in Texas, known for its vital freight corridors, favorable regulatory policies and good weather.
Kodiak Robotics, which intends to go public soon, says it has already surpassed 750 hours of driving on private roads across West Texas' Permian Basin without a human driver on board.
How it works: Most AV companies plan to license their driverless technology to truck manufacturers.
Those manufacturers then sell or lease the automated trucks to fleet customers. Under this "driver-as-a-service" model, those fleet customers pay for virtual drivers by the mile, but still manage their own logistics operations.
Between the lines: Trucking and logistics providers have strong financial incentives for automation.
The industry has struggled to attract enough long-haul drivers, despite big incentives, because of the grueling nature of the job.
Without driver salaries, fleet operators could reduce their operating costs per mile by as much as 42 percent, according to a McKinsey analysis, even with the added costs of the AV technology and new operations centers to monitor the trucks remotely.
What to watch: Autonomous heavy-duty trucks will account for 13 percent of trucks on U.S. roads in 2035, according to McKinsey projections.
2. How safe is safe enough?
Teenagers have to pass a driving test before they can get a license.
For autonomous vehicles, the standard of achievement is when it's better than a human driver.
Why it matters: Absent federal regulations on autonomy, AV companies are essentially self-regulated. They get to decide when "safe" is "safe enough," which is hard to prove and naturally leaves room for interpretation.
"Just trust us" isn't very convincing to the majority of Americans who are afraid of self-driving technology, according to a AAA survey.
Driving the news: Aurora says it won't launch its driverless trucks until its safety case is fully closed.
A safety case is a structured argument of claims, with supporting evidence, that companies use to show how and why an autonomous vehicle is safe enough to deploy on public roads.
Each company's safety case is unique, based on the specific vehicle and where and how it would operate.
In the case of Aurora, the safety case for launching driverless operations from Dallas to Houston was 99% complete as of the end of January, the company said recently.
Between the lines: Aurora's safety case framework is explained in its voluntary safety self-assessment that all AV companies are encouraged to file regularly with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
These voluntary filings are an effort to build public trust through transparency, but they can vary in depth and rigor; some read like marketing brochures.
Gatik, an AV company focused on "middle-mile" logistics (such as between warehouses), enlisted a third-party auditor to validate its safety case in an effort to set a new benchmark for transparency, beyond self-certification.
The bottom line: Transparency and data could help build trust in autonomous vehicles, but given consumers' persistent fears about self-driving technology, it's going to take time.
3. Musk: "Millions" of autonomous Teslas in 2026
Elon Musk expects that millions of Teslas will be driving autonomously by the latter half of 2026.
In the meantime, the company aims to launch a modest robotaxi pilot with just a handful of cars in Austin, Texas, starting in June.
Why it matters: Tesla no longer sees itself as an electric vehicle company, but rather an AI-driven robotics company focused on large-scale production of autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.
Yes, but: The Tesla CEO has been predicting a million robotaxis on the road since 2019.
While Tesla's been talking about it, Waymo already has a robotaxi service that provides more than 200,000 rides per week in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix. In 2024, it racked up more than 4 million paid passenger trips.
Driving the news: During a call Tuesday to review Tesla's disappointing first-quarter financial results, Musk encouraged investors "to look beyond the bumps and potholes of the road immediately ahead of us," and instead focus on the future.
"The team and I are laser-focused on bringing robotaxi to Austin in June," he said, with more cities to be added later this year.
The plan is to launch the service in Austin with 10 or 20 Model Ys, not with the much-ballyhooed Cybercab that Tesla unveiled last October.
Tesla is piloting a new, more automated manufacturing process for Cybercab, with large-scale production expected next year.
The intrigue: Musk acknowledged during the call that his government-slashing work in the Trump administration has sparked a "blowback" against Tesla and that he would spend less time with DOGE, and more time with Tesla starting in May.
4. Drive-thru
📸:
5. What I'm driving: 2025 Toyota Camry
With tariffs expected to drive up the price of imported cars, the Kentucky-built Camry is a solid choice — affordable, dependable and surprisingly stylish, considering its rather stodgy reputation.
What's new: All Camrys are now hybrids. You can't buy a gasoline version anymore.
Key stats: The Camry gets up to 51 miles per gallon in the LE front-wheel-drive model. The all-wheel-drive XLE version I drove got 44 mpg.
Pricing starts at $29,835, but the higher-trim model I drove started at almost $35,000. With a premium option package, it topped out just over $41,000.