Jokowi says ‘fully supports' party chaired by son, but is the ex-president eyeing a bigger political vehicle?
Analysts said that by throwing his weight behind PSI, there will be public expectation for the former president to help it perform better in the 2029 general election than its abysmal showing in previous polls.
But his involvement in PSI remains unclear and is far from certain, given that Jokowi is not even a PSI member and does not have a formal leadership role, observers said, adding that he could be eyeing a position in another bigger party.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) had backed Jokowi's political career and two successful presidential bids, but he had to leave the party in 2024 after deciding not to endorse PDI-P presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo.
Jokowi enjoyed high approval ratings during his two terms in office.
But since stepping down as president in October 2024, signs are that Jokowi's influence is waning amid speculation over his health and whether he would take up a leadership role in a party as a vehicle to retain political relevance.
So all eyes were on him last weekend as he spoke at the PSI Congress in Solo, where his son Kaesang Pangarep, 30, expectedly won a re-election as chairman of the youth-driven party.
'I will fully support PSI… I will work hard for PSI,' Jokowi told party members and supporters last Saturday (Jul 19).
Jokowi also urged the party to finalise its organisational structure to help PSI better understand the aspirations of people across Indonesia. Typically, after a party congress, its chairman will decide other leadership positions.
'If the target for 2029 is simply to enter Senayan (parliament), I think that shouldn't be the target—because that must happen. It's too small if our goal is only to get into Senayan,' said Jokowi.
When asked by reporters the next day what form his support for PSI might take, Jokowi simply reiterated that he would offer his 'full support'.
'It will be full support, which means working hard. I can be at the front, behind, or even in the middle,' said Jokowi, as quoted by news outlet Tempo.
WHAT IS PSI?
PSI was founded in November 2014 by a group of young activists promoting clean, transparent, and diversity-driven politics. Its first leader was Grace Natalie, a former journalist of Chinese-Indonesian descent.
The absence of a strong influential figure has contributed to PSI's poor performance in the past two elections, said analysts.
In the 2019 election, PSI secured only 1.89 per cent of the vote—well below the 4 per cent parliamentary threshold to win a seat.
PSI then sought to rebrand itself by appointing Giring Ganesha, a former rock band vocalist, as its new leader. He was later replaced in 2023 by Kaesang after the party hit a low point and aimed to attract younger voters.
PSI appointed Kaesang as party chairman just two days after he officially joined the party.
Prior to that, Kaesang was a businessman with no political experience.
Kaesang's leadership did help PSI increase its vote share to 2.80 per cent in last year's legislative elections, but it still fell short of the electoral threshold.
PSI founder Jeffrie Geovanie admitted that appointing Kaesang in 2023 was a strategic move to capitalise on the Jokowi family name. Without that, he said, the party risked collapse due to declining popularity.
'If we don't even get even a drop of blood, a single support from the Jokowi family—or Jokowi himself — we might as well shut the party down,' Jeffrie said at the PSI congress over the weekend, recounting what he told party members before Kaesang was first appointed chairman in 2023.
Kaesang was re-elected last weekend as chairman after securing more than 60 per cent of the votes, defeating two other candidates.
JOKOWI AS PSI PATRON OR IS HE AIMING FOR SOMETHING BIGGER?
Observers suggest that Jokowi's support for PSI may be in the form of a patron rather than a formal leadership post alongside his son.
'PSI's weakness all along has been its lack of a strong patron,' Ambang Priyonggo, assistant professor of political communication at the Multimedia Nusantara University, told CNA.
'Jokowi can influence public perception, so he will support the party from behind the scenes.'
Agung Baskoro, a political analyst from the think tank Trias Politika Strategis, agreed, adding that the relationship between Jokowi and PSI is a mutually beneficial one.
'PSI needs a figure like Jokowi. Meanwhile, Jokowi needs a political vehicle to shield himself and his family from political attacks, as well as to protect his legacy and influence,' said Agung.
Political communication analyst and KedaiKOPI survey institute founder Hendri Satrio noted that Jokowi now carries a big responsibility to elevate PSI's reputation, and will likely go 'all out' to do so, as PSI's resurgence would also help restore his own public image.
'If PSI collapses, the embarrassment falls on Jokowi. The party is trying to shift the burden of raising voter support onto the Jokowi family,' Hendri told CNA.
According to Ambang of Multimedia Nusantara University, it is likely that Jokowi has not joined PSI as a leader or member because he sees his stature as bigger than that of the party.
'Someone of Jokowi's calibre is too big for PSI,' Ambang said.
Furthermore, saying that he supports PSI does not preclude him from officially joining a more established party.
'There's a chance Jokowi could join another political vehicle. There's one party clearly affiliated with him — he could be recruited by that party: Golkar,' said Ambang.
Agreeing, Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, believes that Jokowi is aiming to align with another party beyond PSI, calling "Golkar the ultimate prize".
'PSI has major limitations. It's run by Gen Z youth with minimal experience and no grassroots base,' Made told CNA.
'They're not from circles accustomed to political manoeuvring — unlike Golkar.'
Golkar was part of Jokowi's two governments when he was president and had consistently supported his policies.
Speculation about Jokowi joining Golkar has circulated since last year, though it has yet to materialise.
Following the resignation of its leader Airlangga Hartarto in August 2024, Golkar appointed Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, a key Jokowi ally, as its chairman.
Made said that Golkar, founded in the 1960s during the New Order era, is arguably the most suitable party for Jokowi.
However, he added that such a move would not be easy given Jokowi's waning political influence and the view among some in Golkar of him as someone who never contributed to building the party.
Ambang also pointed out internal divisions within Golkar between factions that support Jokowi and those that oppose him.
JOKOWI'S POLITICAL STANDING
Observers whom CNA spoke to generally agreed that Jokowi still holds some political sway due to his former presidential status, but his influence is on the decline.
'In terms of electoral coattail effects, Jokowi likely doesn't have the same pull as before. His term is over, and issues like the fake diploma allegations have eroded his image,' said Ambang, referring to lawsuits filed based on such claims which have been denied by Jokowi and his university.
Made of ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute added that many of Jokowi's former supporters have turned against him.
This is especially after his other son Gibran Rakabuming Raka became vice-president following a controversial Constitutional Court ruling that lowered age requirements for presidential candidates and allowed the then 36-year-old to contest in last year's election.
'It's almost impossible for Jokowi to return to power. The post-Prabowo era will belong to the younger generation,' Made said, referring to President Prabowo Subianto.
Analysts also downplayed the significance of Prabowo's recent visit to Solo to meet Jokowi for an hour, reportedly to brief his predecessor about the completion of the Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.
Negotiations for the agreement had started during Jokowi's term and had taken 10 years before concluding earlier this month.
Made said that the visit was just a way for Prabowo to still show respect to Jokowi, whom Prabowo had said played a crucial role in securing his victory in last year's presidential election.
'He didn't go there to report anything. There's no downside for Prabowo in continuing to respect Jokowi,' Made said.
met with PDIP chair Megawati Soekarnoputri.
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Meanwhile, the Philippines secured a 19 per cent tariff rate, a touch below the 20 per cent levy floated earlier this month. The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr at the Oval Office. Analysts say the US trade deals across Asia underscore how countries in the region continue to view the US as an integral economic partner. 'The eagerness for deals with the Trump administration suggests that most economies see the United States as indispensable, at least for now,' said NUS' Chong. At the same time, American dealmaking across Asia is turning up the heat on China by giving its regional export rivals a potential edge in accessing the world's largest consumer market, say observers. China is the largest trading partner for Indonesia and Vietnam. Bilateral trade between China and Indonesia reached US$147.8 billion in 2024, a 6.1 per cent year-on-year increase, while China-Vietnam trade surged 14.6 per cent year-on-year to 1.85 trillion yuan (US$257.8 billion) that same year, according to China's customs data. China has also long been Japan's largest trading partner, and one of the largest investment destinations for Japanese companies. Meanwhile, trade with the Philippines remains robust, although rising tensions in the South China Sea have cast a shadow over broader relations. Experts say China will be scrutinising the fine print of the US trade deals across Asia, wary of any provisions that could directly or indirectly undermine its economic interests. Particular attention is likely to focus on clauses targeting transshipments, the practice of rerouting Chinese goods through third countries to bypass tariffs. For example, in the case of the US-Vietnam agreement, goods identified as transshipped face a 40 per cent tariff, double the 20 per cent baseline rate, signalling Washington's intent to clamp down on workaround routes that have long benefited Chinese exporters. Such provisions threaten to shut off a critical pressure valve in China's trade strategy, raising costs for exporters and potentially diverting orders to rival manufacturing hubs that now enjoy more favourable terms. This would also pile further economic stress on the Chinese economy, which is already contending with sluggish domestic demand, weak private investment and mounting demographic headwinds, including an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. 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While Beijing will increasingly seek new partners for technological collaboration, potentially creating new business opportunities, Chong also warned of potential ripple effects. 'The diversion of PRC exports away from the United States could further flood other markets with cheap PRC goods, creating pressures on their enterprises,' he said, adding that thorny issues like overcapacity and intellectual property protection also remain. CNA previously reported on how China's export engines are increasingly aimed at Southeast Asia as Chinese products lose their lustre in the West, and how this would bring more benefits for consumers but also challenges for businesses in the region. Against this backdrop, the upcoming EU-China summit on Thursday is set to be closely watched for signs of whether Beijing is prepared to offer trade concessions or recalibrate its approach to longstanding issues. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be attending the summit in Beijing, and are set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Analysts have signalled low expectations for any breakthrough as trade frictions persist, and Europe remains wary of Beijing's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as its broader challenges to international law and global institutions. While the expectation of any immediate deal is low, China may be more flexible in addressing a wider range of issues and positioning itself as a 'free trade enabler', Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis and research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, told CNA. 'It can be the removal of certain sanctions or commitment to market access, or easing some anti-dumping duties,' he said. European Commission spokesperson Olaf Gill has said that the upcoming summit provides an opportunity to address these concerns. 'That relationship … must be based on fair competition and on a level playing field,' he said at a regular press briefing on Jul 10. 'There are a number of trade-distorting measures, unfair competition and an unlevel playing field - challenges that the EU wants China to meaningfully address.' Chinese businesses have urged EU and Chinese leaders to come together and reach a deal to reduce trade barriers. 'We the business community hold high expectations, hoping that China and Europe can seize this historic opportunity to achieve substantive results (at the summit)', said Fang Dongkui, secretary general of the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU. The chamber hopes the two sides can broker a deal to remove trade barriers in several areas, including the EU's tariffs targeting Chinese electric vehicles, Fang told the South China Morning Post. Soka University's Lim said there is a possibility both sides could come to an agreement on 'low-lying branches' such as brandy and on other secondary issues that could help ease pressure in the broader bilateral relationship. In the lead-up to the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in Brussels on Jul 3. In a statement released by China's Foreign Ministry, Wang said China does not see the EU as an adversary and called for managing differences through dialogue. 'China and the European Union should not be regarded as opponents because of differences, nor should they seek confrontation because of disagreements,' he said. A day later, China excluded major cognac producers Pernod Ricard, LVMH and Remy Cointreau from planned anti-dumping duties on European brandy. The move stood out as a rare positive signal amid persistent trade tensions with Brussels, as both sides continue to clash over EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, with Beijing signalling possible retaliation. While gestures such as those on European brandy offer a potential path forward, NUS' Chong said they remain largely symbolic without concrete follow-up. 'The manufacture and sales of these luxury items do not replace the effect from automobiles, for example,' he said.
