TSX futures inch lower on concerns of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflict
June 19 (Reuters) - Futures linked to Canada's main stock index fell marginally on Thursday amid caution over the United States' possible entry into the Israel-Iran air war.
Futures on the S&P/TSX index were down 0.1% at 05:45 a.m. ET (10:45 GMT).
President Donald Trump kept the world guessing about whether the United States will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites, saying "I may do it. I may not do it."
Much of the recent nervousness in markets has been centred around crude supply shocks, triggered by the tensions in the Middle East. On Thursday, oil prices , inched higher.
Gold prices held steady while copper hit a near one-week low. Most other base metals also declined, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE), opens new tab shed most of its gains to end almost flat on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation in goods prices is expected to go up over the summer as Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers.
Investors now await Canadian retail sales data for April on Friday to assess whether consumer spending has been resilient in the face of tariff uncertainty.
Trading volumes in Canada remained subdued on Thursday as U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday.
FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES:
TSX market report
Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/
Reuters global stocks poll for Canada ,
Canadian markets directory
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Carney threatens to raise tariffs on US if Trump talks fail
Mark Carney has threatened to increase Canadian tariffs on US steel if crunch trade talks with President Trump fail. On Thursday, the Canadian prime minister said he would amend his country's 25pc tariff on US steel and aluminium imports to a level 'consistent with the progress' of the negotiations. He added that he wanted to 'reinforce' his country's strength in negotiations with the US president as he announced a sweeping package of measures aimed at hurting American exports. The move paves the way for Canada to increase its counter-tariffs if talks fail, or reduce them if Mr Trump makes concessions. Mr Carney discussed tariffs with Mr Trump earlier this week and both leaders have agreed to begin a month-long series of negotiations. He said: 'We'll take all the time we need to get the best deal for Canada, but no longer. And seeing progress that's been made, President Trump and I agreed to pursue negotiations towards a deal within the coming 30 days. 'We'll continue these negotiations, of course, in good faith. In parallel, we must reinforce our strength at home and safeguard Canadian workers and businesses from the unjust US tariffs that exist at present.' The talks come three months after President Trump imposed 25pc tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium, and weeks after he raised them to 50pc. The measure is especially punishing for Canada because it is the largest supplier of foreign steel and aluminium to US markets. Mr Carney said late on Thursday that Canada would raise its counter-tariffs if a deal is not reached within 30 days. 'Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products on June 21, at the end of that 30-day period ... to levels consistent with the progress that's made at that point on the broader trading arrangements with the United States,' he said. Mr Carney, a former Governor of the Bank of England, also announced plans to ban Canadian government products from using US steel unless the world's largest economy offers tariff-free access to Canadian steel. The measures come after repeated attacks on the usually close US-Canadian relationship by Mr Trump. Since being elected last November, the US president has repeatedly called for Canada to become America's 51st state. Mr Trump announced a series of tariff increases on Canada, with the White House claiming in February that the US was responding to a 'national emergency' caused by the 'extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs'. Leaders at the G7 summit in Canada on Monday pushed Mr Trump to back away from his punishing trade war. Mr Trump said that he believed that scoring a deal with Canada in the coming weeks was 'achievable'.
South Wales Guardian
an hour ago
- South Wales Guardian
UK interest rates kept on hold with Bank alert to ‘highly unpredictable' world
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%. In a split vote, with six members opting to hold and three preferring to cut, the MPC said a 'gradual and careful approach' to reducing borrowing costs continued to be the right course of action. Bank governor Andrew Bailey said: 'Interest rates remain on a gradual downward path, although we've left them on hold today. 'The world is highly unpredictable.' He added that there were 'signs of softening in the labour market' – referring to indicators including slower hiring and wage growth easing – which were being closely watched to see how far they feed into UK inflation. The committee said it was alert to concerns about conflict in the Middle East, which has escalated in recent days with attacks between Israel and Iran. In the minutes of the MPC's meeting, it noted that there had been 'rapid geopolitical developments', adding: 'Energy prices had risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. 'The committee would remain vigilant about these developments and their potential impact on the UK economy.' It echoes similar remarks made by the US's central bank which also opted to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday. Global oil and natural gas prices have surged in recent weeks, which threatens to push up energy costs in the UK. Furthermore, the MPC noted that Donald Trump's tariff policy was posing risks to global trade and continuing to create uncertainty. But it said that deals struck between the US and other countries, including the UK, meant that the direct impact of the 'trade shock' on global growth could be smaller than it had forecast last month. Meanwhile, the decision to keep rates on hold came as UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remained above the Bank's 2% target level, coming in at 3.4% last month. The jobs market was also starting to cool, with the rate of unemployment ticking up and pay growth starting to ease. The Bank said its network of agents had found that cost pressures from the beginning of April – including national insurance contributions rising – had put pressure on firms to recover them by raising prices. As well as price hikes, it noted that businesses had been leaning on other actions to mitigate costs, including reducing their workforce, staff hours, salaries, and absorbing into profits. The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 6-3 to keep interest rates at 4.25% Find out more: — Bank of England (@bankofengland) June 19, 2025 It also pointed to waning business sentiment amid weak growth in the UK economy, with demand not expected to recover until 2026. Signs of a weakening jobs market and economic growth indicates that a rate cut could be on the table when the committee next meets in August. Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said three MPC members voting for a cut was 'probably a sign that the MPC has become slightly more concerned about the labour market than it was in May'. 'This only raises the bar for the MPC to break from its cut-hold tempo at its August meeting and opens the door slightly to rate cuts potentially speeding up in the latter half of this year,' he said. Other experts pointed out that the Bank was having to weigh up a cooling labour market with growing pressures on inflation stemming from global developments. James Smith, developed market economist for ING, said some policymakers had a 'beady eye' on oil prices and were 'wary of a repeat of 2022, where a rise in energy prices turned into a much wider and more persistent services-driven inflation episode'. He is nonetheless forecasting a reduction in rates in August and again in November. Rachel Reeves said the Government respected the Bank's decision as she spoke at The Times CEO Summit. Speaking in central London, the Chancellor said: 'We respect independent economic institutions, and the Bank has got an incredibly important but difficult job to do. 'We want them to set the monetary policy that is appropriate for meeting the inflation target, because we also saw in the last parliament a double-digit inflation which was so challenging for businesses, but also family finances, which also has a knock on impact on business.' Ms Reeves, a former economist at the Bank, insisted the four interest rates cuts made under Labour were 'a world away from the previous parliament, when interest rates went up so sharply because of the poor economic mismanagement of prime ministers and chancellors'.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Citi sees oil prices of $75-$78/bbl if war disrupts 1.1 mln bpd of Iran's oil exports
June 19 (Reuters) - An escalation of the Iran-Israeli hostilities could keep Brent oil prices trading about 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if the war disrupts 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, analysts at Citibank said on Thursday. "This implies Brent prices should be in the $75 to $78/bbl range," Citi said in a note. Prices had been hovering around $65 per barrel in May. Brent crude futures were up $1.48, or 1.9%, to $78.18 a barrel by 1230 ET on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was up $1.72, or 2.3%, at $76.86. Separately, JP Morgan said in a note that in the most extreme case of a broader regional conflagration that includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it estimates that oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel. The Iran-Israel conflict has raised fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region, pushing crude prices higher as traders react to the growing geopolitical risk. Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. According to Citi, a disruption of about 3 million bpd over a multi-month period could push prices to $90 bbl. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a sharp price spike, but Citi believes it would be brief as efforts would focus on a quick reopening. Iranian oil export disruptions may have a smaller impact on oil prices than expected due to falling exports and reduced Chinese purchases as prices are higher now, it said. "Production elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected," Citi noted. Increased supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could also mitigate the impact of potential Iranian oil export disruptions, it added. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs noted that it estimates a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel following the rise in Brent prices to $76-77 per barrel, while Barclays said that if Iranian exports are reduced by half, crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel and that prices could move past $100 in the "worst-case" scenario of a wider conflagration.
