Iraq's power play: Factions abandon US strikes for election influence
Iran-backed armed factions in Iraq refrained from striking US military positions after Israel's June 13 attacks on Iran, despite earlier threats to retaliate if Washington intervened, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported.
The think tank attributed the decision to fears of leadership assassinations, pressure from Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government, and direct appeals from Tehran, noting that these groups are prioritizing political gains ahead of Iraq's November 2025 elections while avoiding actions that could damage their standing.
RUSI added that between July 2 and 28, the factions carried out a series of unclaimed drone and rocket attacks on oil infrastructure and security facilities in the Kurdistan Region, disrupting nearly half of the Region's oil production during tense Baghdad–Erbil negotiations over exports. The strikes followed a warning from a senior aide to Iran's Supreme Leader about a perceived US threat from northern Iraq.
Tensions escalated further on July 27, when Kataib Hezbollah fighters stormed the Agriculture Directorate in Baghdad during a clash with Kataib al-Imam Ali, prompting al-Sudani days later to remove two brigade commanders linked to Kataib Hezbollah—a rare break from his cautious approach toward powerful armed factions.
Iraq's stability, RUSI warned, remains fragile, with these groups applying selective force to consolidate domestic influence while maintaining the capacity to operate outside state control.
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