Rivian (RIVN) Flags $100M Revenue Loss as Trump Eases Fuel Economy Rules
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Rivian Faces Loss of Revenue Related to EV Credit Sales
The Biden administration imposed stringent standards that required carmakers to achieve a 50.4 miles per gallon average by model year 2031 or face increased fines for violating the provisions. However, in July, President Trump signed the megabill, which eliminated penalties for violating the fuel economy standards. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) then sent letters to automakers that it would delay issuing annual notifications to companies about their compliance status with CAFE, given that it is reconsidering standards for model years 2022 and later.
In a statement attached to a petition, Christopher Nevers, Rivian's director of public policy, highlighted that the company already had negotiated regulatory credit deals that it can't finalize due to the delay in NHTSA's notifications. For context, regulatory credits made up 6.5% of Rivian's overall revenue in the first half of the year. However, the company said it doesn't anticipate any additional credit revenue for the rest of 2025. Likewise, in a statement, Lucid Group (LCID) said the credits 'represent a significant share' of its revenues, though they weren't a notable source of income in the most recent quarter.
Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) stated in its most recent quarterly earnings report that regulatory actions have resulted in a $1.1 billion decrease in expected revenue from selling credits. Tesla earns the most from selling credits than any other EV maker.
NHTSA stated that it expects to issue compliance notifications once it completes fixing the CAFE rules. However, the agency didn't provide a timeline for completing the CAFE reconsideration.
Is Rivian Stock a Buy or Sell?
Amid a weak demand backdrop, Wall Street is sidelined on Rivian Automotive stock, with a Hold consensus rating based on eight Buys, 14 Holds, and three Sell recommendations. The average RIVN stock price target of $14 implies 16% upside potential.
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