Crude Prices Slip After OPEC+ Raises Crude Production Levels
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moving lower after OPEC+ on Sunday raised its crude production levels, stoking fears of a global supply glut. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels on dollar weakness and after President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India "substantially" for buying Russian crude oil.
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Concerns about a global oil supply glut are weighing on crude prices after OPEC+ on Sunday endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in its crude production for September 1. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. After Sunday's meeting, the group said it will closely monitor demand and may maintain production levels, restart halted supplies, or reverse recent production increases. OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of supplies that are currently due to remain offline until late 2026. The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd and that the global crude oil market faces a surplus by Q4-2025 equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption. OPEC July crude production fell -20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.
Crude prices recovered from their worst levels today after President Trump said he would be "substantially raising" the tariff on US imports from India due to India's purchases of Russian oil.
Crude prices have support after President Trump said last Monday that he would impose new tariffs on countries buying Russian energy unless Russia reaches a ceasefire with Ukraine by this Friday. JPMorgan Chase warned that if enforced, oil markets would be unable to ignore the impact of triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil, given the significant scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity, which could potentially lead to a supply shock.
The European Union recently approved fresh sanctions on Russian oil due to its aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions package includes cutting off 20 more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian petroleum refined in other countries. A large oil refinery in India, part-owned by Russia's Rosneft PJSC, was also blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more ships in Russia's shadow fleet were sanctioned, pushing the number of sanctioned ships above 400.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -15% w/w to 79.12 million bbl in the week ended August 1.
Last Wednesday's weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 25 were -5.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -15.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 25 rose +0.3% w/w to 13.314 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 decreased by -5 rigs to a new 3.75-year low of 410 rigs. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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