2025 breakout tight ends for fantasy football, headlined by Hunter Henry, Brenton Strange

New York Times

09-07-2025

We're at the finish line of my fantasy football 2025 breakouts series, and I saved the best … eh, well, biggest for last. Yes, the big boys are my final group of breakout candidates. Given the scarcity at the tight end position, I will provide five names with the potential to return high value. You can call them sleepers, breakouts, value picks … whatever. But you should certainly think about calling their names on draft day — that is if you don't get a Tier 1 tight end. Yes, given the cost of the Tier 2 options, I'm most likely to opt for a Tier 1 tight end or wait until the very end of drafts to take a flyer. After all, TE11 is boring and highly replaceable. I want someone with a chance to surprise and break into the Top 10 for a fraction of the cost.
On the one hand, some might say it won't get much better for Hunter Henry after leading the Patriots in targets, receptions and receiving yards last year — 97-66-674, with the 66 receptions tying DeMario Douglas. On the other hand, you can — and I will — argue that the passing game will improve in Drake Maye's second season, leaving more meat on the bone for Henry. Even if Henry only repeats his career-high 97 targets from last year, he has room to improve on a per-reception basis, both in yards and touchdowns.
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Two things in Henry's favor are his red zone target rate and the return of Josh McDaniels, who was with Henry in New England in 2021 when Henry posted career-highs in red zone targets (17) and touchdowns (9). That Tom Brady dude was also gone, with Mac Jones at the helm, so don't fret about it being all about the quarterback. In fact, with Maye's improvement should come a return to touchdown success, as Henry had just two scores on 16 red zone targets last year. Henry won't be more than a back-end TE1, but he hasn't finished even that high since 2021.
We're still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to be the 'generational talent' he was billed as coming out of college, but he has the weapons around him to live up to his draft capital (if the talent is there). Brian Thomas Jr. is a stud; Travis Hunter was a Tier 1 NFL Draft wideout regardless of his defensive ability; and Dyami Brown is an interesting deep threat as the No. 3 receiver — never mind the Jaguars' backfield and the breakout potential of Brenton Strange.
Despite having a mere 45.4 Route% last year, Strange had 53 targets for a stat line of 40-411-2, seeing targets on 19.3% of his routes run. Additionally, Strange had a near-identical 1.50 YPRR to then-teammate Evan Engram's 1.51, who is now in Denver. There is the risk of Strange never rising higher than fifth place in targets, given the weapons in Jacksonville. Nevertheless, he is worth a lottery ticket at the end of drafts because if Strange sees 90+ targets, a Top-10 finish is in play.
I was a big fan of Isaiah Likely's talent pre-draft, but I was definitely not a fan of his landing spot. Likely has spent most of his time in Baltimore playing second fiddle to Mark Andrews, though he did enjoy a semi-breakout last year. There are many calling for a full breakout season from Likely in 2025, and that's why I included him, but I'm hesitant to fully buy-in.
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Likely produced a 16-180-3 line through Week 5 of 2024, when Andrews' mug was on the side of a milk carton. The rest of the season (10 games)? Likely delivered 26-297-3. In fact, Likely had just three games where he ran over 67% of the routes, and only one of those three came after Week 7. My argument against teammate Zay Flowers as a WR2 can also be applied to Likely. If Andrews is hurt or traded, wheels up, Goose! Likely would be a surefire Top-10 tight end. In lieu of that, I'll let someone else draft Likely and deal with the frustration of not knowing whether to start or even drop him every … single … week.
The deepest of any name here, Theo Johnson, isn't for anyone outside of a deep league or tight-end premium setup (gross), and even then, he's still a long shot. Still, Johnson has Jason Witten-like fantasy upside, and the Giants don't have a locked-in, guaranteed No. 2 option in the passing game. Yes, Wan'Dale Robinson saw the second-most targets (140), nearly doubling Darius Slayton's 71, but even so, Robinson turned them into a mere 699 yards and 3 touchdowns on 93 receptions.
Inefficient much? Slayton is a fine downfield threat, but Johnson did post a line of 43-29-331-1 in his rookie season, in just 12 games, with a 54.7 Route%. Even if Johnson can be Witten, he'd need a minimum of 100 targets to push the Top 10 in fantasy. But given the Giants' depth chart — and quarterbacks — it's not out of the question.
I saved Kyle Pitts for last because half of you would have stopped reading immediately had he been higher — 'Been there. Done that. I'm out!' I get it. Pitts is like Taco Bell at 2 a.m. when you're 30-plus years old. It sounds so tasty, and then you get it and have regrets … for days. We all remember Pitts' historic rookie season (68 receptions, 1,026 yards), but we also want to forget all three subsequent seasons. The past two preseasons have also come with excuses and reasons to buy back in. I couldn't get on board last year, but order me a Crunchwrap, because here I am!
At least this is like getting a crunch wrap for free, as Pitts is going in the Round 12-13 range based on early ADP. What's the worst that can happen? Besides diarrhea? If Pitts looks as terrible as ever, you drop him after 2-3 weeks. However, Michael Penix is the quarterback for 2025, and he didn't throw a single off-target pass in Pitts' direction. Okay, sure, the counterargument is Penix targeted Drake London eleventy billion times, and Pitts just 10 times in three games. Still, we're talking about Penix's first three NFL starts, and Zac Robinson enters his second season as the offensive coordinator, looking to maximize Pitts' talent. Darnell Mooney is a real threat as the No. 2 wideout, but Pitts has a chance to rebound — four years later — if Robinson utilizes him more out of the slot and out wide, as Pitts had just 94 of his rookie yards when inline.
(Brenton Strange: Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)