RARE EARTH MAGNETS SUPPLY RISK TO INDIA
New Delhi: A disruption in rare earth magnet supplies lasting beyond a month can impact production of passenger vehicles, including electric models, weighing on the domestic automobile industry's growth momentum, a report on Tuesday said.
Rare earth magnets, low in cost but critical in function, could emerge as a key supply-side risk for India's automotive sector if China's export restrictions and delays in shipment clearances persist, Crisil Ratings said in a statement. 'The supply squeeze comes just as the auto sector is preparing for aggressive EV rollouts. Over a dozen new electric models are planned for launch, most built on PMSM platforms,' Crisil Ratings Senior Director Anuj Sethi said.
While most automakers currently have 4-6 weeks of inventory, prolonged delays could start affecting vehicle production, with EV models facing deferrals or rescheduling from July 2025, he added. A broader impact on two-wheelers and ICE PVs may follow if the supply bottlenecks persist for an extended period, Sethi said. 'The shortage of rare earth magnets is forcing automakers to reassess supply-chain strategies. Despite contributing less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, these magnets are indispensable for EV motors and electric steering systems,' said Crisil Ratings Director Poonam Upadhyay. Automakers are actively engaging with alternative suppliers in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US, while also optimising existing inventories, she noted.
Rare earth magnets are integral to Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) used in EVs for their high torque, energy efficiency and compact size. Hybrids also depend on them for efficient propulsion. In internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the use of rare earth magnets is largely limited to electric power steering and other motorised systems. In April this year, China, the world's dominant exporter of rare earth magnets, imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and finished magnets, mandating export licences.
The revised framework demands detailed end-use disclosures and client declarations, including confirmation that the products will not be used in defence or re-exported to the US. With the clearance process taking at least 45 days, this added scrutiny has significantly delayed approvals.
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Mint
4 hours ago
- Mint
India's EV dreams are caught between rare earth and a hard place
New Delhi/Mumbai: Bajaj Auto's earnings call on the evening of 29 May, replete with revenue and profits and margins and ratios, was trundling along the way such calls usually trundle. And then, as the discussion veered towards electric vehicles (EV), the leadership dropped a bombshell. 'It's a threat to the entire EV business," executive director Rakesh Sharma intoned sombrely. 'There is no short-term solution. Alternatives exist, but they will take time to develop." Sharma was referring to China's restrictions on the export of rare earth magnets, imposed the previous month. Rare earth metals are crucial to make the motors that turn the wheels of EVs and China is estimated to control over 90% of the world's production. Aside from conventional bikes, Bajaj makes e-scooters under the Chetak brand, e-rickshaws under the Gogo brand, and also manufactures small e-bikes for EV company Yulu. While the drama at the Bajaj call was playing out, about 20-30 grim-faced representatives from the automotive industry huddled together in a conference room on the first floor of Udyog Bhawan in New Delhi. They had assembled there at short notice to discuss the challenges posed by the rare earths crisis with the union government's secretary of heavy industries. The executives warned that their production lines, which churn out about 6% of India's GDP, could grind to a halt within weeks if China did not resume the supply of rare earth materials, including permanent magnets and electronic components. EVs were particularly vulnerable to the supply chain crisis, they warned. The meeting ran into the evening. In the end, the heavy industries secretary assured the executives that he would take the matter up with his counterpart in the foreign ministry. For India's automobile industry, particularly the EV segment, the Chinese restrictions are a clear and present danger. They threaten to derail the government's ambitions making the country an electric vehicle manufacturing hub, an aspiration on which it has bet over ₹60,000 crore through various promotion schemes over the last six years. But the rare earths crisis is not the sole reason automakers who have invested billions of dollars in this technology have become nervous. They have also been hobbled by myriad other factors, such as cumbersome procedures and stringent eligibility criteria for aid programmes. Amid all this, the fact that EV adoption in India has not reached the levels they envisioned is adding to their anxiety. EVs accounted for less than three out of every 100 cars and about six out of every 100 two-wheelers sold in India in FY25, according to Hemal Thakkar, senior practice leader and director at Crisil Intelligence. 'This is relatively below the estimates the industry had made two-three years ago," he said. An industry report from 2021 prepared by Catapult, a clean transport promotion agency, predicted that electric two-wheeler penetration would reach 15% by 2025 while passenger vehicle penetration would be at 5%. Consequently, some legacy automakers have begun questioning their decision to bet on the technology. 'Globally, electric vehicle adoption has slowed down. In that background, there is a realization that we need to de-risk. All eggs in one basket may not be the right approach," said a top executive at a domestic carmaker. He didn't want to be identified. In a letter to the ministry of heavy industries, on 4 June, Rajan Wadhera, former president of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, called for a diversified approach. 'Pursuing an aggressive EV-only strategy without securing robust and diversified supply chains may inadvertently deepen our strategic dependence on a nation that has often taken positions adverse to India's geopolitical and economic interests," he wrote. 'India is uniquely positioned to harness alternative technologies like biofuels, strong hybrids, CNG, LNG, and even hydrogen," he added. Mint takes a look at each of the issues plaguing the EV industry and how they have played a role in sparking the existential crisis it faces today. Rare earth, common challenge The world has US President Donald Trump to thank for the Chinese action on rare earths. The Communist regime imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements in retaliation for the 145% tariffs the US had slapped on China, escalating the trade war between the two sides. In India, the impact of China's curbs became even more real on Tuesday (10 June), when news agency Reuters reported that Maruti Suzuki, a late entrant in the EV market, had slashed production targets for the e-Vitara, its first electric vehicle, by two-thirds because of the rare earths shortages. A spokesperson for Maruti Suzuki said that while the situation was uncertain, there has been no disruption to operations so far due to the rare earth crisis. The other companies making four-wheeler EVs, and likely to be affected, are Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra, MG Motor, Kia and Hyundai. The two- and three-wheeler EV segment includes Ola Electric, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, Greaves Electric and the Murugappa Group. 'Currently Mahindra has inventory for the affected parts to meet production needs. We are actively de-risking our supply chain…We are closely collaborating with our suppliers to ensure there is no disruption to production," said a Mahindra and Mahindra spokesperson. Two weeks on from the meeting in Udyog Bhavan, little progress has been made to mitigate the crisis. About 30 applications from Indian automotive companies for a licence to access rare earth magnets await clearance from the Chinese authorities, according to two people directly aware of the matter. A delegation of the automotive industry is waiting with packed bags to visit China, they said, but authorities from the Middle Kingdom are yet to grant them an appointment. Meanwhile, top political leaders from the West including US President Trump, have held talks with the Chinese political leadership and wrangled concessions. On Tuesday, the US and China reached an agreement on a framework that will ease trade tensions and that may help in resuming exports of rare earth magnets. But, there is no guarantee of supply to Indian automakers. 'This is a major supply chain disruption," said Rajat Mahajan, partner and automotive sector leader at Deloitte India. If the crisis escalates, could this deter investments in EVs? Mahajan thinks so. 'This situation will hopefully get resolved via diplomatic channels, but if it continues then we may see a shift towards other powertrains for large original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)," he added. The dependence on China is not only for rare earths, which go into the electric motor. The world also relies on India's neighbour for lithium-ion batteries, which power EVs—China controls about 80% of the global supply of these batteries. This over-reliance on one source for critical components is making automakers jittery. 'The dependence on China has now been outed as a vulnerability for the entire ecosystem. It is going to have a damaging effect on the industry's thinking on EVs," said Abhishek Saxena, a former policy expert at Niti Aayog. Electric vs. hybrid Another issue that has caused much heartburn in the Indian EV industry is the apparent shift in policymakers' perception of hybrid vehicles, which combine a gasoline-powered engine and electric motor and have far lower emissions than ICE vehicles. A pure electric vehicle is only powered by batteries. China's control over key EV inputs, and the crippling impact any curbs can have on production in India, will make policymakers proceed cautiously, as the government will not be willing to give the Chinese the upper hand. And that may be good news for hybrid makers, who have long sought to be treated at par with EV companies. Currently, Maruti Suzuki, Toyota Kirlosokar and Honda are the only companies offering hybrid vehicles in India. While the government has always maintained that it supports all technologies, companies that invested in EVs took comfort from the fact that it was only zero emission vehicles that enjoyed sops under the production-linked incentive scheme for the sector, indicating a policy preference. For hybrid makers, another huge bone of contention was the 5% goods and service tax rate on EVs, against the effective tax rate of 43%, including compensation cess, on hybrids. Union heavy industries minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, whose ministry oversees most of the incentive schemes for the automotive sector, reiterated to this publication last week that the government supports all technologies, including EVs, hybrids, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquified natural gas (LNG) and biofuels. That statement rankled the makers of electric cars. Two weeks earlier, a gaggle of senior executives from automakers, including senior executives of Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra, Hyundai Motor India and JSW MG Motor India—companies that have gone into EVs in a big way—had met with minister Kumaraswamy. The reason for that meeting: concerns that hybrid vehicles were being given equal footing with EVs in government policy. Two executives who attended the meeting told Mint that the heavy industries minister had allayed their concerns. But his subsequent remarks induced a fresh bout of anxiety. Queries emailed to minister Kumaraswamy's office did not elicit a response. But it isn't just the central government alone that is making EV makers incontinent. On 22 April, the country's top automakers were asked to submit their comments on the national capital's draft electric vehicle policy proposal. One clause in that document sent EV carmakers into a tizzy—it proposed waiving registration and road fees for both electric vehicles and hybrids, effectively equating their positive impact on the climate. On 2 May, an advisory issued by the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) for the National Capital Region asked government departments in the region to procure clean vehicles, which included hybrid vehicles along with EVs, CNGVs and others. One paragraph of the advisory especially caught the attention of the pure electric vehicle lobby. 'Strong Hybrid Electric Vehicles (SHEV) offer substantial improvements in fuel efficiency and emission reduction as compared to conventional diesel/petrol vehicles," the advisory read. The Tatas and Mahindras are concerned that official endorsements and incentives to hybrids could drive prospective EV buyers towards this technology, risking their investments. Automakers have publicly disagreed over policy support for EVs and hybrids. Shailesh Chandra, managing director of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, said in a written statement to Mint that the company believes government incentives should be directed toward technologies that require support to bridge a funding gap and accelerate innovation. 'Incentives are most effective when they help emerging technologies reach scale and maturity—particularly those that contribute meaningfully to long-term sustainability goals of zero emissions, such as EVs," Chandra said. Although it has taken baby steps towards the EV lane, Maruti Suzuki is on the other side of the debate. Rahul Bharti, senior executive officer of corporate affairs at Maruti Suzuki, told Mint that EV penetration in India is currently less than 3%. 'While all efforts are to maximize this 3%, we cannot say we will do nothing about the balance 97%," said Bharti. He added that the purpose and effect of strong hybrids is to replace pure diesel or petrol vehicles because they increase energy efficiency by 36-44% and reduce CO2 by 25-31% over petrol vehicles. But those who have invested in the new technology for years believe that incentivising hybrids, which have tailpipe emissions, will discourage further investments in EVs. 'Equating hybrids and EVs for disbursal of incentives is effectively disincentivizing investments into EVs. If the goal is to transition to cleaner technologies, it doesn't make sense to give both EVs and hybrids incentives. The government should back one technology," a senior executive at a carmaker said. Queries emailed to Hyundai Motor India, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, JSW MG Motor India, Kia Motors India, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Ola Electric and Ather Energy did not elicit a response. A Pyrrhic victory? Meanwhile, the flagship production-linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for the automotive sector is struggling to deliver on its stated objective: to foster a domestic manufacturing ecosystem. The scheme, with a fiscal outlay of ₹25,938 crore, got the union cabinet's nod in September 2021. The money was to be disbursed over the following five fiscal years to automakers and component makers in an effort to incentivize investments in the EV ecosystem. One of the goals of the scheme was to facilitate deep localization, and thereby avoid situations like the one playing out now, where auto manufacturing lines risk coming to a halt because China has restricted exports of one component. The ministry of heavy industries, which oversaw the scheme, focused on making the rules airtight so that no company could game the system and take taxpayer money without adding sufficient value domestically. There was a minutely detailed standard operating procedure (SOP) for every applicant company to declare its domestic value addition. The ministry's cautious approach is understandable, as another scheme, Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicles in India (FAME-India), saw many companies take subsidies from the government while selling vehicles largely imported from China. This time around, the ministry appears to have succeeded in preventing companies from gaming the system. But it's a Pyrrhic victory—of the 115 applicants, only four have managed to receive incentives as of 2024-25. Out of the total kitty of ₹25,938 crore, only ₹322 crore have been disbursed, as per government disclosures. The government also recently halved the incentives given to electric vehicle sellers under the Prime Minister e-Drive scheme. Another PLI scheme for cells used in EVs is yet to take off. In private conversations, automakers blame the cumbersome application process of the flagship PLI scheme for its low disbursal level. Industry observers agree that the confusion over subsidies should be cleared to help automakers plan their products better. 'Long-term policy clarity on subsidies, though on a reducing basis, will lead to the industry making investments in product development," Crisil's Thakkar said. Most of all, says Saxena, the former Niti Aayog member, the ambiguity over EV adoption needs to end. 'The concern over China's dominance of supply chains and slow adoption of vehicles is weighing on policymakers and the corporate sector," he said. 'However, there is no technology with zero tailpipe emissions like EVs that can be scaled up for mass use for now. All the stakeholders have to choose whether to back it or not." For now, automakers have not publicly indicated a change in stance. But the rumblings within their strategy rooms should set alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power.
Business Standard
5 hours ago
- Business Standard
Crisil Ratings reaffirms ratings of Ratnamani Metals at 'AA/A1+' with 'stable' outlook
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Time of India
11 hours ago
- Time of India
Is the power behind green mobility truly green?
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