The Irish Independent's View: Donald Trump's outlook may make securing EU trade deal impossible
While Ireland faced new challenges, it did so on a 'solid footing'. But EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who has been leading negotiations for the bloc, was far more downbeat. Blanket tariffs of 30pc would practically 'prohibit' the future flow of trade from Europe to the US. 'It will be almost impossible to continue trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship,' Mr Sefcovic said.
And in Frankfurt, the potential havoc from Mr Trump's bombshell was also made plain. It would cause 'toxic uncertainty' for companies on both sides of the Atlantic, German machinery and equipment manufacturers association VDMA said.
Billionaire Warren Buffet once said: 'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.' And thanks to Mr Trump's intervention, no one on either the EU or US negotiating teams can have the foggiest notion what the next move could be.
According to insiders, significant progress in closing in on agreement, across a sea of complex detail, had been achieved. But Mr Trump's announcement has undermined the whole process, eroding trust and confidence. It was sufficient for Danish foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen to reveal ministers were now discussing deployment of 'the big bazooka' – otherwise known as the 'Anti-Coercion Instrument' (ACI). This would enable the EU to hit the US where it hurts. While Washington complains about the goods trade deficit between the bloc and the US (€198bn) it never mentions the surplus it enjoys in services.
Were Brussels to press the red button on the ACI , it would be fair game for all to be hit. From an Irish perspective, this could mean that pharma and tech could also be targeted.
A crippling trade war that can only do harm ought to be avoided. But can it be, given there is an idealogical wall between the sides as Mr Trump is constitutionally opposed to free and open trading?
In a process where a mastery of detail and awareness of the intricacies involved is crucial to success, Mr Trump's bulldozing entrance into the process has rattled it to its foundations. Neither he nor his team have shown much evidence of respect for the minutiae or nuance involved.
In his letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, informing her of the tariff threat; Mr Trump said rates 'may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your country'.
That he and his advisers were either unaware that the EU is not a country, or were insufficiently interested to check, has to be a worry in itself.
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