Fantasy Football: Saquon Barkley headlines 2025's regression candidates
Lester Bangs tried to tell us this a long time ago: You'll meet everyone again on their long journey to the middle.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
Mind you, if you identify the right positive outliers (or avoid the right negative ones), you have a strong first step towards winning your league. So today's assignment is an important one — let's find some statistical outliers from the 2024 season and try to figure out how to project those situations going forward.
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson didn't win the MVP in 2024, but he surely had his best season, setting career bests in several categories (passing yards, touchdown passes, QB rating, touchdown to interception ratio; just to name a few). But his touchdown percentage of 8.6% will be hard to repeat — consider that he had rates of 4.2, 5.2 and 5.3 in the three previous seasons.
Although Jackson probably just had what will stand as the best season of his career, it's also reflective of a talented player reaching total command of the game — like many athletes, Jackson found a spike year in his age-27 season. It's foolish to expect a major drop-off given Baltimore's loaded offense and the shrewd schemes of OC Todd Monken, and Jackson rightfully will be the QB1 on many (perhaps most) draft boards. Josh Allen would never admit it publicly, but he'd surely trade supporting casts in a second.
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles
You surely know the stat by now — Barkley had 482 touches last year (including the playoffs), a gigantic number. But there's another stat I can't get out of my mind — Barkley's 15 touchdowns came with a staggering average of 29.4 yards last year, and he didn't have a single score from the 1-yard line (that's tush push territory for Jalen Hurts).
Barkley enters his eighth season in the league, and he's missed at least three games in four of those seasons. It's a cinch he'll lose some of last year's touches, and the long touchdown rate isn't going to repeat either. I understand it's no fun to fade a player who just turned in the monster season Barkley had, but we need to skate to where the puck is headed, not where it's been. In the first round, I'd prefer younger backs like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in front of Barkley.
RB James Cook, Bills
By the efficiency stats, Cook had a season similar to his career path last year — his YPC bumped up slightly, his success rate dipped slightly. His yards per reception and yards per target both fell, and he had 12 fewer catches than the previous season. But Cook landed as the RB8 because of how pure he ran with touchdowns — he spiked 18 times last year, after a modest six touchdowns in the previous season.
Cook is unhappy with his contract, a situation that will likely clear itself up before opening week — although it's still worth mentioning. But it's extremely doubtful Cook can match last year's touchdown count, given that Buffalo has a mobile and athletic quarterback in Josh Allen and capable understudy backs in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. And while Cook is the obvious head of this backfield, he's not really built to be a workhorse — he checks in at 190 pounds, and averages just under 16 touches per game over the past two seasons. Tread carefully here.
QB Jordan Love, Packers
Love tumbled from QB5 to QB17 last year, but that was mostly driven by volume. A slew of his key efficiency stats actually improved — Love had a better touchdown rate, a better sack-avoidance rate and a healthy jump in YPA. Two missed games contributed to his fantasy drop, though Love also slotted a modest QB18 in points per game.
The Packers ranked 16th in pass rate over expected back in 2023, but they slipped to 31st last year — perhaps because Love suffered an MCL sprain at the end of the season-opening loss in Brazil. The Yahoo market is giving you a QB16 sticker on Love this summer, which obviously presents a profit opportunity. It's unlikely the Packers will be this run-heavy again.
WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
It got late awfully early for Hill in 2024 — he didn't have a single reception over 30 yards after Week 1. We saw a crash landing from Hill's efficiency (his YPC fell by 3.3 yards) and volume (he lost 48 targets, 38 catches and seven touchdowns from the previous season). Hill also missed the Pro Bowl for the first time in his nine-year career.
Hill's year-long slump had a lot of factors — Tua Tagovailoa dealt with concussion problems, and the Miami offensive line didn't play well, which discouraged the team from calling deep pass plays. Unfortunately for Hill, Tagovailoa remains an injury risk, and the line still looks questionable. We also have to wonder about Hill's commitment (at times it seems like he's unhappy in Miami) and his level of skill (this is a 10-year vet heading into his age-31 season). Even with the market offering a discount on Hill, this is not a play I'm likely to make.
If you want to bet on a comeback in this passing game, focus on Jaylen Waddle.
TE Trey McBride, Cardinals
Some people are allergic to pollen, or bees or certain kinds of medication. McBride's apparently holding a touchdown allergy. Despite 221 catches over three NFL seasons, he's only caught six touchdown passes. It's not for a lack of opportunity — McBride saw 21 red-zone targets last year, second-most among tight ends. But only one of those passes from in close went for a touchdown.
Perhaps the Cardinals will get more creative with McBride this year — consider he did have one touchdown run last season. But it's possible his lack of scoring is directly tied to QB Kyler Murray, who's undersized at the position and might struggle to see the field properly when things condense at the goal line. My reservations on Murray won't allow me to label McBride a proactive pick, but I understand why some fantasy managers will target McBride, focusing on a high volume floor and the likelihood of positive touchdown regression.
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Needing only to finish 27th or better to secure his fourth Fishing Clash Angler of the Year title in the past five seasons, he could have played it safe, then celebrated and gone through the motions after he secured the hardware on Friday. Instead, he not only made Sunday's Championship Round but overcame an early 22-pound deficit to Todd Faircloth and willed his way to a win in a three-way battle with Faircloth and Edwin Evers. His total of 110 pounds even on 42 scorable bass ultimately topped Faircloth by 7-6. For the win, Wheeler earned $150,000 – he'll leave Saginaw Bay with $250,000 and two trophies thanks to his AOY victory. The dream end to yet another dominant season left even Wheeler, who is no stranger to recapping victories, short for words. 'I still don't know what to say, to be honest with you,' he said with a chuckle. 'I don't even believe it half the time. I just go fishing and things happen. I'm just speechless. It's crazy, it really is.' 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Using a drop-shot and forward-facing sonar, he stacked up nearly 52 pounds, then spent the rest of the day largemouth fishing amid the shallow vegetation that lines Saginaw Bay. In the third period, he hit a key area that yielded more than 30 pounds in about 90 minutes. On the second day of qualifying, he once again sampled both shallow largemouth and offshore smallmouth, this time starting on the green fish. Like the rest of the field, he found the smallmouth bite to be getting tougher, making it difficult to justify the hour or so it would take to travel from largemouth habitat to smallmouth waters (or vice versa). So, Wheeler committed to frogging for largemouth during the Knockout Round. While he finished third, easily advancing to Championship Sunday, he knew the area he'd fished, which he shared with Brent Ehrler, wasn't likely to hold up for another day. 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'When I get in those positions, I get in kill mode. You do everything to push you mentally to keep your mind sharp and make the right cast, and every cast matters and every fish matters. You get it to where you're just like locked and trained to focus on that.' The last key decision he made was leaving the spot where he'd relocated his fish from Day 1. Perceiving that the bass had noticed his presence and scattered, Wheeler trolled out toward his starting spot and then back again, picking off a few bass on the way. He arrived at the juice with about an hour left and promptly caught eight more scorable bass. 'I didn't stay in there,' he said. 'I went back out and I was able to catch a few and sort of settle back down and come back in the last hour basically and close it out.' While Wheeler is no stranger to the winner's circle, this victory carries significance for a few reasons. 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The top 10 pros at the Toyota Stage 7 at Saginaw Bay Presented by Ranger Boats finished: 1st: Jacob Wheeler, Harrison, Tenn., 42 bass, 110-0, $150,0002nd: Todd Faircloth, Jasper, Texas, 40 bass, 102-10, $45,0003rd: Edwin Evers, Talala, Okla., 36 bass, 86-10, $35,0004th: Cole Floyd, Leesburg, Ohio, 26 bass, 66-2, $30,0005th: Brent Ehrler, Redlands, Calif., 25 bass, 61-2, $25,0006th: Bryan Thrift, Shelby, N.C., 23 bass, 58-0, $23,0007th: Nick Hatfield, Greeneville, Tenn., 23 bass, 54-12, $22,0008th: Spencer Shuffield, Hot Springs, Ark., 21 bass, 49-15, $21,0009th: Keith Carson, DeBary, Fla., 18 bass, 45-7, $20,50010th: James Elam, Tulsa, Okla., 18 bass, 43-6, $20,000 A complete list of results can be found at Overall, there were 272 scorable bass caught weighing 678 pounds even by the final 10 pros on Sunday. Pro Cole Floyd won Sunday's $1,000 Berkley Big Bass Award with a 4-pound, 6-ounce largemouth that he caught on a Strike King Rage Tail Cut-R-Worm in Period 2. Berkley awards $1,000 to the angler who weighs the heaviest bass each day. The four-day Toyota Stage 7 at Saginaw Bay Presented by Ranger Boats was hosted by Go Great Lake Bay and the Bay Area Chamber of Commerce and featured 66 of the top professional anglers in the world competing for a $150,000 top prize, a share of the $6.49 million season purse, and valuable AOY points in hopes of qualifying for the Heavy Hitters all-star event and REDCREST 2026, the Bass Pro Tour coverage of the Toyota Stage 7 at Saginaw Bay Presented by Ranger Boats will premiere as a two-hour episode starting at 7 a.m. ET, on Saturday, Nov. 15 on Discovery. New MLF episodes premiere each Saturday morning on Discovery, with re-airings on Outdoor Channel. Proud sponsors of the MLF Bass Pro Tour include: 7Brew Coffee, Abu Garcia, Athletic Brewing Co., Bass Force, B&W Trailer Hitches, Bass Pro Shops, Berkley, BUBBA, E3 Sport Apparel, Fishing Clash, Grizzly, Lowrance, Mercury, MillerTech, NITRO Boats, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Power-Pole, Ranger Boats, Rapala, Star brite, Suzuki Marine, Toyota and Zenni. For complete details and updated information on Major League Fishing and the Bass Pro Tour, visit For regular updates, photos, tournament news and more, follow MLF's social media outlets at Facebook, X, Instagram and YouTube. About Major League FishingMajor League Fishing (MLF) is the world's largest tournament-fishing organization, producing more than 250 events annually at some of the most prestigious fisheries in the world, while broadcasting to America's living rooms on CBS, Discovery, Discovery+, Discovery GO, Animal Planet, Outdoor Channel, VICE, CBS Sports Network, World Fishing Network and Game & Fish TV, and on demand on MyOutdoorTV (MOTV). Headquartered in Benton, Kentucky, the MLF roster of bass anglers includes the world's top pros and more than 30,000 competitors in all 50 states and 20 countries. Since its founding in 2011, MLF has advanced the sport of competitive fishing through its premier television broadcasts and livestreams and is dedicated to improving the quality of life for bass through research, education, fisheries enhancement and fish care. # # # Attachment Wheeler Hoists No. 10 CONTACT: Joe Opager Major League Fishing 2184340748
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