Thailand Holds Key Rate as Political Uncertainty Adds to Risks
The central bank's seven-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-1 to maintain the one day repurchase rate steady at 1.75% at Wednesday's meeting. The hold was predicted by 15 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with the rest forecasting a quarter-point cut. April saw the first back-to-back cut since 2020.
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Bloomberg
44 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
China's Economy Needs Help, But Will It Come?
If ever there were conditions that cried out for stimulus, China appears to have met them. Recent gauges of growth and inflation were more than just disappointing. After an encouraging start to the year, the expansion is in trouble. But authorities have given little sign they are prepared to jettison the caution that has characterized their actions. Fiscal policy has already done some work and, while economists predict interest-rate cuts later this year, the reductions are likely to be modest. The wait-and-see approach could be justified while activity was holding up reasonably well and the US was figuring out just how punitive tariffs would be. Beijing seems intent to just muddle through.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: Why job growth will slow sharply under Trump
President Trump is riled about the latest numbers showing weak job growth during the last three months. Buckle in, because that could be the new normal — thanks to Trump's own immigration policies. Employers added just 73,000 new jobs in May, with job growth for the last three months averaging an anemic 35,000. During 2024, employers saw 168,000 new jobs per month, on average. Trump falsely claimed that the latest numbers were 'rigged' and fired the head of the statistical agency responsible for the jobs report. But the jobs numbers make perfect sense to economists. By deporting migrants and putting new limits on all forms of immigration, Trump is reducing the size of the labor market, which in turn will slow the economy. 'Slowing immigration will put significant downward pressure on growth in the labor force and employment,' researchers at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote in a recent report. That research finds that job growth could slow to between 10,000 and 40,000 new jobs later this year. By 2027, Trump's crackdown on immigration could generate negative job growth, with the economy losing jobs each month. US population growth has been slowing for 25 years, largely because of relatively low birth rates and a plateauing immigration rate. There was one notable exception: The last three years of the Biden administration, when US population and the US labor force both grew by more than usual. That was because of Biden's permissive policies on migration. Migrant overload in some parts of the country led Biden to restrict some forms of immigration last year. Trump has gone much further, issuing fewer green cards and temporary visas, accepting fewer refugees, and deporting thousands of others. The AEI researchers estimate that net migration — those coming in minus those going out — will drop from about 2.6 million in 2024 to 0 in 2025, and possibly end up negative, with more immigrants leaving than arriving. That has major implications for the economy. Some people may think that fewer migrants means the nation's wealth will be divvied up among fewer people, meaning more for everybody who remains. But it doesn't work that way. Most migrants work, and more people working means more growth, more output, and more jobs. Fewer people working means the opposite. So when there are fewer immigrants, there's also less wealth to spread around. While there's obviously an important difference between migrants who are in the country legally or not, it doesn't matter very much in economic terms. Workers contribute to growth whether they're authorized to be in the country or unauthorized. Biden's migrant surge became a huge political liability that gave Trump a key opening in the 2024 presidential campaign. But the migrant surge also contributed to record job growth under Biden. During Biden's four years, the economy created 16.1 million new jobs, or an astonishing 336,000 per month, on average. By early 2024, economists were attributing much of the outsized job growth under Biden to the migrant surge. That trend now seems to be reversing. Economist Jed Kolko of the Peterson Institute for International Economics believes that the US population growth rate has dropped from 1% in 2023 to 0.5% in 2025, a huge change in a short period of time. Virtually all of that is tied to immigration changes. 'Policymakers need to lower their targets and forecasts for key economic data,' he wrote in a recent analysis. Goldman Sachs recently said that plunging immigration is one factor behind its newly lowered expectations of just 30,000 new jobs per month, or less, for the rest of 2025. The firm points out that the declining size of the labor force means the unemployment rate can remain deceptively low even as hiring grinds nearly to a new tariffs on imported goods have drawn most of the attention in the Trump economy, given that he talks incessantly about tariffs and announces new import taxes or trade deals every week. But his immigration policies could ultimately have more impact on the economy. 'We believe the biggest impact on the US economy so far in 2025 has been from the closing of the border, which has slowed US population growth and potential GDP by roughly 1%,' Michael Drury, chief economist at McVean Trading, wrote to clients in an Aug. 15 newsletter. 'Tariffs are more talked about, but their impact on top-line growth will be very modest in comparison to immigration.' What will Trump do if job growth, a standout metric under Biden, dwindles to 30,000 or 20,000 or less under his watch? First, he will most likely look for scapegoats, which is the very role he's been shaping for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump blames Powell for everything he dislikes about the economy, including interest rates, which Trump wants to be a couple of points lower. Trump would surely list weak job numbers as another of Powell's supposed sins. Trump could also try to rig the numbers to make them seem more favorable. Trump has nominated a right-wing figure denounced by many mainstream economists to oversee the employment and inflation reports, suggesting that Trump loyalists will fiddle with the data to make Trump look better. Markets would sniff that out immediately, but Trump doesn't normally care when traditional establishments disapprove. What Trump probably won't do is change his immigration policies, even if they kill jobs. Economist Jim Bianco of Bianco Research points out that Trump's handling of illegal immigration is the only major issue on which voters express net approval, according to recent polls. 'Even if the Republicans and/or Trump buy into the argument that job growth is slowing, they are not going to reverse their decision to close the border,' Bianco wrote on Aug. 12. 'It's the reason they won the election and it would be a disaster politically to change.' Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: Why job growth will slow sharply under Trump
President Trump is riled about the latest numbers showing weak job growth during the last three months. Buckle in, because that could be the new normal — thanks to Trump's own immigration policies. Employers added just 73,000 new jobs in May, with job growth for the last three months averaging an anemic 35,000. During 2024, employers saw 168,000 new jobs per month, on average. Trump falsely claimed that the latest numbers were 'rigged' and fired the head of the statistical agency responsible for the jobs report. But the jobs numbers make perfect sense to economists. By deporting migrants and putting new limits on all forms of immigration, Trump is reducing the size of the labor market, which in turn will slow the economy. 'Slowing immigration will put significant downward pressure on growth in the labor force and employment,' researchers at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote in a recent report. That research finds that job growth could slow to between 10,000 and 40,000 new jobs later this year. By 2027, Trump's crackdown on immigration could generate negative job growth, with the economy losing jobs each month. US population growth has been slowing for 25 years, largely because of relatively low birth rates and a plateauing immigration rate. There was one notable exception: The last three years of the Biden administration, when US population and the US labor force both grew by more than usual. That was because of Biden's permissive policies on migration. Migrant overload in some parts of the country led Biden to restrict some forms of immigration last year. Trump has gone much further, issuing fewer green cards and temporary visas, accepting fewer refugees, and deporting thousands of others. The AEI researchers estimate that net migration — those coming in minus those going out — will drop from about 2.6 million in 2024 to 0 in 2025, and possibly end up negative, with more immigrants leaving than arriving. That has major implications for the economy. Some people may think that fewer migrants means the nation's wealth will be divvied up among fewer people, meaning more for everybody who remains. But it doesn't work that way. Most migrants work, and more people working means more growth, more output, and more jobs. Fewer people working means the opposite. So when there are fewer immigrants, there's also less wealth to spread around. While there's obviously an important difference between migrants who are in the country legally or not, it doesn't matter very much in economic terms. Workers contribute to growth whether they're authorized to be in the country or unauthorized. Biden's migrant surge became a huge political liability that gave Trump a key opening in the 2024 presidential campaign. But the migrant surge also contributed to record job growth under Biden. During Biden's four years, the economy created 16.1 million new jobs, or an astonishing 336,000 per month, on average. By early 2024, economists were attributing much of the outsized job growth under Biden to the migrant surge. That trend now seems to be reversing. Economist Jed Kolko of the Peterson Institute for International Economics believes that the US population growth rate has dropped from 1% in 2023 to 0.5% in 2025, a huge change in a short period of time. Virtually all of that is tied to immigration changes. 'Policymakers need to lower their targets and forecasts for key economic data,' he wrote in a recent analysis. Goldman Sachs recently said that plunging immigration is one factor behind its newly lowered expectations of just 30,000 new jobs per month, or less, for the rest of 2025. The firm points out that the declining size of the labor force means the unemployment rate can remain deceptively low even as hiring grinds nearly to a new tariffs on imported goods have drawn most of the attention in the Trump economy, given that he talks incessantly about tariffs and announces new import taxes or trade deals every week. But his immigration policies could ultimately have more impact on the economy. 'We believe the biggest impact on the US economy so far in 2025 has been from the closing of the border, which has slowed US population growth and potential GDP by roughly 1%,' Michael Drury, chief economist at McVean Trading, wrote to clients in an Aug. 15 newsletter. 'Tariffs are more talked about, but their impact on top-line growth will be very modest in comparison to immigration.' What will Trump do if job growth, a standout metric under Biden, dwindles to 30,000 or 20,000 or less under his watch? First, he will most likely look for scapegoats, which is the very role he's been shaping for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump blames Powell for everything he dislikes about the economy, including interest rates, which Trump wants to be a couple of points lower. Trump would surely list weak job numbers as another of Powell's supposed sins. Trump could also try to rig the numbers to make them seem more favorable. Trump has nominated a right-wing figure denounced by many mainstream economists to oversee the employment and inflation reports, suggesting that Trump loyalists will fiddle with the data to make Trump look better. Markets would sniff that out immediately, but Trump doesn't normally care when traditional establishments disapprove. What Trump probably won't do is change his immigration policies, even if they kill jobs. Economist Jim Bianco of Bianco Research points out that Trump's handling of illegal immigration is the only major issue on which voters express net approval, according to recent polls. 'Even if the Republicans and/or Trump buy into the argument that job growth is slowing, they are not going to reverse their decision to close the border,' Bianco wrote on Aug. 12. 'It's the reason they won the election and it would be a disaster politically to change.' Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
