Rupee likely to rise after central bank rattles short NDF bets
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 87.48 to 87.52 range versus the U.S. dollar, higher than 87.7025 on Thursday.
The Indian currency had rallied in the NDF market after local trading closed at 3:30 p.m. IST. The 1-month USD/INR NDF dropped nearly 30 paisa within half an hour and largely held that decline through the U.S. trading session.
During Thursday's onshore session, the currency traded in a narrow range and posted a modest advance despite additional U.S. tariffs on Indian goods announced by President Donald Trump.
A currency trader at a private sector bank said the Reserve Bank of India may have played a role in the rupee's muted reaction to the news.
The RBI has been active in the NDF market, and has made it evident that they do not want a new high in USD/INR, at least for now, the trader said, referring to the 87.95 level.
The RBI's defence of that threshold, along with a recovery in Indian equities, likely triggered a "mini rush" to unwind long USD/INR positions, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at a hedge fund said.
"Weak hands probably decided to exit," the person said.
India's equity indices wiped intraday losses to finish flat on Thursday. The announcement of a U.S.-Russia presidential meeting may have been a possible driver of the late-session recovery, analysts said.
While Indian equities recovered, foreign investors were net sellers on Thursday, offloading around $600 million worth of shares, according to preliminary exchange data.
Meanwhile, the rupee's Asian peers were slightly lower on the day, while the dollar index was little changed and on track for a weekly decline.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.59; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.75 paise
** Dollar index at 98.10
** Brent crude futures flat at $66.4 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.25%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $501.5mln worth of Indian shares on Aug. 6
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $38mln worth of Indian bonds on Aug. 6
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