This week in Trumponomics: The looming import shortage
Few people pay attention to import and export data, which are among the weedier metrics of the economy's health. But these wonky numbers are giving some startling insights into the challenges everyday shoppers may be facing in a month or two or three.
Imports plummeted in April, falling by 20% from the prior month. That's the biggest decline in data going back to 1992. It's considerably worse than the drop in imports at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Does anybody remember what shopping was like during COVID?
Aside from the masks and sanitizer, there were widespread product shortages followed by soaring inflation. People didn't mind at first, since many were stuck at home without much to do. But inflation got quite irksome after a couple of years, and it sank Joe Biden's presidency, along with Democratic electoral odds in 2024.
We're not yet facing COVID-style shortages. But we might be if President Trump's trade war drags on through the fall and summer.
Imports plunged in April because that's when Trump started slapping new import taxes on practically every product entering the United States. So far, Trump has raised the average tariff tax on imports from 2.5% to about 18%.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
Prices haven't shot up yet because many of the American companies that import goods saw this coming and stocked up ahead of the Trump tariffs. Imports jumped by a record amount in January and were elevated for the first quarter as a whole. Swollen inventories have kept supplies ample and prices in check.
If April represents the new trend line, however, a sharp drop in imports will inevitably lead to higher prices and some shortages. 'The impact of tariffs will continue to reverse progress on returning inflation to 2%,' Goldman Sachs explained in a recent analysis. 'Our forecast reflects a sharp acceleration in most core goods categories, where tariff-related increases in prices will be most acute in consumer electronics, autos, and apparel.' The firm expects overall inflation to rise from 2.3% now to 3.5% by December.American importers are handling the Trump tariffs in a variety of ways. Some are taking normal delivery of goods and paying the higher taxes. We know that because tariff revenue collected by the government soared in April and May. The higher cost of imports will eventually make its way to consumers via higher prices.
Many other importers have canceled or postponed orders, hoping that Trump will make trade deals and future tariffs will be lower than current ones. They're also watching two high-profile cases in which courts have said some of Trump's tariffs are illegal, while leaving them in place until appeals play out.
Trump himself controls much of what happens next.
He has set a July 9 deadline for dozens of countries to initiate trade concessions, or else a punishing round of 'reciprocal' tariffs will go into effect, on top of those Trump has already imposed. Some business owners hope for greater clarity by then, though the July 9 deadline is arbitrary and Trump could change it.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs
Once current inventories are gone, the rest of 2025 could be rocky. 'Our perspective in terms of how this will affect manufacturers and workers is that we'll see a replay of the initial COVID shock,' Jason Judd, executive director of the Global Labor Institute at Cornell University, told Yahoo Finance. 'It may not be as severe, depending on the distribution of the pain. If Trump comes back with a 40% tariff on apparel, that would feel like a COVID-era shock.'
Trump, for his part, acts like everything is hunky-dory under his watch.
'America is hot!' he said on social media on June 6. 'Border is secure, prices are down. Wages are up!' That came after the employment report for May showed the economy created a middling 139,000 new jobs.
Many economists, however, think America is cooling. The pace of job growth has slowed this year, the economy technically shrank in the first quarter, and the stock market has been flat in 2025. Trump's tariffs already seem to be punishing the manufacturing sector, which lost 8,000 jobs in May and is in a three-month slump.
If that's 'hot,' a cold Trump economy is likely to be miserable.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Digging into claims Biden administration 'shoveled' $93 billion in loans out of Energy Department in final months
In May 2025, U.S. Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright repeatedly claimed that the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden lent or committed $93 billion to companies through the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) in the final 76 days of the administration. It was unclear where Wright got this figure. According to our investigation, the LPO lent or committed anywhere from $68 billion to $77 billion between Nov. 5, 2024, and Jan. 20, 2025. According to the LPO awarded up to 27 loans during this period — around half the 53 the office said it announced during the Biden-Harris administration. Wright also claimed that, before Election Day in November 2024, the LPO had awarded loans worth $43 billion. We did not independently confirm this figure, though the LPO said on its website that it had "financed" a $43.9 billion portfolio by September 2024. This could be the number Wright was referring to. After U.S. Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright testified (archived) at the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee on May 21, 2025, a claim (archived) circulated alongside a video clip from the hearing that U.S. President Joe Biden gave out $93 billion in loans to businesses during its last 76 days through the Department of Energy. One Facebook post read: "Wasting $93 billion of our hard earned money is criminal and it needs to be handled as such. Thank you Kennedy for exposing this!" The claim also appeared on X (archived), Instagram (archived) and Threads (archived). Snopes users searched our site for information about the claim. However, we found no evidence the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office (LPO) — which is the office claims are referring to — approved loans worth exactly $93 billion between Nov. 5, 2024 and Jan. 20, 2025. The office awards or guarantees loans to companies to advance clean energy, advanced transportation and Tribal energy projects in the United States. According to the LPO's public news releases, the office announced loan guarantees or conditional commitments worth around $68 billion during this period. According to an open data source of federal spending information, new loans issued by the LPO during that period totaled around $77 billion. On Jan. 17, 2025, the LPO said in its 2024 year-in-review that it had announced "53 deals totaling approximately $107.57 billion" during the entire Biden-Harris administration from January 2021 to January 2025. Though none of these figures corresponded exactly to Wright's claim, according to the LPO awarded 27 of the 53 loans on or after Nov. 5, 2024, indicating a flurry of activity in the administration's final months. We reached out to the Department of Energy to ask how it evidenced Wright's statement. We also reached out to Biden administration Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm and Jigar Shah, who was at the time the head of the LPO, to ask if they could confirm the figure. We await replies to our queries. Wright first made the claim during an interview (archived) with Blaze Media's Glenn Beck. Wright has since repeated the claim in an appearance on Fox Business (archived) and while testifying at the Senate Appropriations Committee on May 21, 2025. Wright said during the May 21 hearing while speaking about the LPO (time code 37:43, our emphasis): Christopher Wright: The Loan Programs Office is a key tool. We do need to make sure we have funding available in the Loan Programs Office because, used judiciously, it's a way to leverage private capital to make things happen fast. If your equity investors behind that debt are the six hyperscalers in the United States, they're great credit, the American taxpayers are going to be paid back. Alternatively, in the last administration — the Loan Programs Office in its 15-year history lent $43 billion — Sen. Katie Britt: Wow. CW: — In the 76 days since Election Day to Inauguration Day of the new President, the previous administration lent or committed $93 billion — two and a half times the 15-year total — KB: You're kidding, tell me, tell me that time frame again? CW: — 76 days from Election Day when the B — Biden lost the presidential election to President Trump's inauguration, in 76 days — KB: That is absolute insanity. CW: — they lent or committed $93 billion. So, there is a reason I'm moving slow and I'm doing evaluations of projects, yes, there's a very big reason. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana repeated the claim to Wright later in that same hearing (starting around time code 1:38:25). Kennedy asked: "The people running the Department of Energy for President Biden's administration shoveled $93 billion, not million, $93 billion out the door in 76 days and it just happened to be the time between when President Trump was elected and President Biden, their boss, was leaving. Is that right?" While we could not document loan or commitment announcements from the LPO between Nov. 5, 2024 and Jan. 20, 2025 totaling exactly $93 billion, our investigation did find that the office announced a flurry of new activity during this period. During that period the office announced loan guarantees or conditional commitments to 23 new companies totaling $68,836,640,000, according to the LPO's own news releases. The largest was a $15 billion loan guarantee to Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E)'s Project Polaris, a portfolio of projects to expand hydropower in the company's service area. A loan guarantee is a promise by a third party (not the borrower or lender) to repay a loan if the borrower is not able. According to between Nov. 5, 2024, and Jan. 20, 2025, the Department of Energy awarded 27 loans with a combined face value (the amount either lent directly or guaranteed) of $77,150,255,215. This number was likely higher because the LPO might not have publicly announced all the loans or guarantees it made on its website. Though the higher loan total from was in the ballpark of Wright's $93 billion — about $16 billion short — neither figure matched exactly. We await a reply from the LPO about the discrepancy between publicly available data and Wright's statement. According to the Biden-era LPO itself, the office announced "53 deals totaling approximately $107.57 billion" during the Biden-Harris administration. According to the office made 27 of these commitments in its last three months. Therefore, while it was not possible to exactly match Wright's $93 billion figure, data shows the Biden administration did commit to around half the loans or guarantees made through the LPO in its last three months. Then-Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm declared the office "open for business" in 2021, after it, according to reports citing Granholm, had been dormant during the first Trump administration. Outlets like Politico, Bloomberg and the Financial Times reported in late 2024 that companies were rushing to finalize loan deals with the LPO amid uncertainty about what then President-elect Donald Trump would do with the office once in power. Alongside his claim about $93 billion in loans given out in the final months of the Biden administration, Wright also claimed that this was "two and a half times the 15-year total" of $43 billion that the office had lent previously. The LPO did likely lend or commit more than $43 billion during its last three months — as listed above, our estimates range up to around $77 billion during this period. The office's website said in May 2025 that by September 2024 the LPO had financed "a $43.9 billion portfolio of innovative clean energy projects and advanced technology vehicle manufacturing facilities across the United States." This could be the figure Wright was referring to, though it would account for 19 years of the LPO's lifetime, not 15, as Wright had said. President George W. Bush founded the office in 2005, so a 15-year lifetime would only count up to 2020. It was unclear whether "financed" on the LPO's website meant obligated or disbursed — and equally unclear whether Wright was referring to either or both of these terms when he said the LPO "lent" $43 billion. The LPO's own annual portfolio status report for fiscal year 2023 (Page 10) showed that the office has consistently obligated more than it has disbursed. For example, in FY23, the office had obligated nearly $40 billion in its lifetime, but disbursed nearly $35 billion. By the end of March 2025, the LPO said on its website it had disbursed $47.3 billion in loans. Ultimately, while it was uncertain where Wright got his figures from, it was clear that the Biden administration finalized a large number of the loans and commitments it made through the LPO after Election Day in November 2024, and that the value of these loans and commitments likely exceeded the office's previous lifetime cumulative total. It remains uncertain what will happen to the $46.95 billion worth of active conditional commitments the LPO made under the Biden-Harris administration as Wright and the Trump Department of Energy turn their attention to the office. Wright said during the May 21 Senate appropriations hearing (time code 01:40:26): "Senator, the one complication in there too is, mixed in there, are good companies doing good things honestly with credible plans." Wright agreed that he was trying to "sort the wheat from the chaff." "That's our job and we're doing it," Wright said. Accelerating Portfolio Growth. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office, An Overview of DOE's Loan Programs Office. U.S. Department of Energy, June 2021, Brady, Jeff. "After Solyndra Loss, U.S. Energy Loan Program Turning A Profit." NPR, 13 Nov. 2014. NPR, Chu, Amanda. "Joe Biden Rushes to Issue Cleantech Loans in Bid to Secure Legacy." Financial Times, 26 Dec. 2024, Daly, Matthew. "AP Interview: DOE Reviving Loan Program, Granholm Says." AP News, 4 Mar. 2021, "December 2024 Monthly Application Activity Report." Accessed 28 May 2025. "DOE Announces $15 Billion Loan Guarantee to Pacific Gas & Electric Company to Expand Hydropower Generation, Battery Energy Storage, and Transmission." 17 Jan. 2025, DOE Loan Programs Office: 2023 Updates, Overview and Key Insights | Insights | Holland & Knight. Accessed 28 May 2025. Energy for America's Future. Accessed 28 May 2025. Forbes Breaking News. "Energy Secretary Chris Wright Testifies Before The Senate Appropriations Committee." YouTube, Accessed 28 May 2025. Friedman, Lisa. "Billions in Clean Energy Loans Go Unused as Coronavirus Ravages Economy." New York Times, 30 Apr. 2025, @glennbeck. "Trump's Energy Dept. Just Discovered Biden Rushed out $93 BILLION in Green Energy Loans in the 3 Months before Trump." X, 8 May 2025, "LPO Year in Review 2024." 21 Jan. 2025, Natter, Ari, and David R. Baker. "With Trump Looming, Biden's Green Bank Moves to Close Billions in Deals." Bloomberg, 13 Dec. 2024. "November 2024 Monthly Application Activity Report." Accessed 28 May 2025. "October 2024 Monthly Application Activity Report." Accessed 28 May 2025. @SecGranholm. "The @Energy Department's Loan Programs Office Is Back in Business! ." X, 3 Mar. 2021, @SecretaryWright. "The Biden Administration Pushed out $93 BILLION in Green Energy Loans in the 3 Months before @POTUS Came into Office." X, 10 May 2025, Storrow, Benjamin, et al. "Biden Inks Billion-Dollar Climate Deals to Foil Trump Rollbacks." POLITICO, 20 Nov. 2025, Accessed 28 May 2025.
Miami Herald
an hour ago
- Miami Herald
Dave Ramsey warns Americans on 401(k)s, stocks
With uncertainty surrounding stock market volatility and the possibility of a recession, many American workers are concerned about managing their everyday expenses - paying mortgages or rent, keeping up with rising grocery and fuel costs, and handling other financial obligations. While addressing these immediate financial pressures, they also prioritize long-term stability by investing in 401(k) plans and IRAs (Individual Retirement Accounts), aiming to secure their retirement and navigate the unpredictable economic landscape. Dave Ramsey, the personal finance bestselling author and radio host, warns Americans about the challenges of saving for retirement, investing in stocks and 401(k) plans, and building wealth amid market instability. Related: Dave Ramsey sounds alarm for Americans on Social Security Enrolling in an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan remains a reliable method for growing retirement savings, particularly when companies offer matching contributions to enhance employees' investments. With automatic payroll deductions, this approach ensures consistent savings with minimal effort, making it both convenient and effective. In 2025, the maximum contribution limit for 401(k) plans has risen to $23,500, up from $23,000 in 2024. Employees between the ages of 60 and 63 can benefit from higher catch-up contribution limits of $11,250, while those aged 50 to 59 have a cap of $7,500. Ramsey outlines a few more vital facts about 401(k) plans and stocks that U.S. workers would be wise to consider. When people are at the beginning of the process of participating in their employer's 401(k) plan, Ramsey explains, they are often presented with options that are difficult for an investing novice to understand, such as vesting, equities, risk choices and beneficiaries. Ramsey shares a warning about the importance of being sure some basic 401(k) plan setup options are understood. "Your ability to retire someday depends on you getting it right today," Ramsey wrote. "But how can you make such major, long-term decisions when you don't even understand what the choices are?" More on retirement: Dave Ramsey sounds alarm for Americans on Social SecurityScott Galloway warns Americans on 401(k), US economy threatShark Tank's Kevin O'Leary has message on Social Security, 401(k)s Ramsey explains his view on the very first place to start: A company's plan document. This document provides essential details about a company's retirement plan, including employer matching contributions and the vesting schedule. A vesting schedule determines when the money an employer adds to an employee's 401(k) becomes fully theirs, Ramsey clarified. The funds contributed, along with any investment gains, are always the employee's property, but many employers require a certain period of service before their contributions are entirely vested. If one's 401(k) includes an employer match, that's a valuable benefit to accelerate retirement savings. Once a person is financially stable - debt-free with an emergency fund, as Ramsey describes it - one should invest enough to get the full match. Some plans allow people to select investments for matched funds, while others offer company stock. Related: Dave Ramsey sends strong message to Americans on 401(k)s Mutual funds pool money from multiple investors to buy a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, or other securities. Experts manage these funds to help grow the money while reducing risk. Ramsey cautions against target date funds, which many company retirement plans heavily promote. These funds adjust their investment mix based on an individual's expected retirement date, starting with a balanced allocation of growth stock mutual funds. However, as retirement nears, the portfolio shifts toward more conservative investments. Ramsey advises against relying on these funds because, by the time retirement arrives, most of the 401(k) assets will be placed in bonds and money market accounts. These conservative investments may not generate the growth required to sustain retirees through three decades or more of financial needs. Instead, he encourages a strategy focused on maintaining strong investment growth, ensuring long-term financial stability throughout retirement. If a person works for a publicly traded company, it may offer employees the chance to invest in its own stock, a choice about which Ramsey advises caution. Employees may have the option to buy shares, sometimes through an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), offered either upon hiring or after a certain period of employment. These plans often allow workers to acquire company stock at a discounted price through payroll deductions. While a discount on stock might seem appealing, Ramsey warns against relying on it for retirement savings. He emphasizes that company stock and ESPPs involve single stocks, which can be risky. His approach is to avoid investing in individual stocks for long-term financial security, instead advocating for diversified investments that reduce risk and provide steadier growth over time. "Putting all your eggs in one basket when it comes to the stock market is risky, even if that basket is the shiny new company you work for," Ramsey wrote. Related: Dave Ramsey warns Americans on Social Security The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
It's Opening Night for the MAGA Makeover of the Kennedy Center
Ticket sales are down amid Trump's planned overhaul of national arts center, which includes 'common sense' programming, a prayer wall and refurbished decor; $2 million gold-tier fundraiser.
