Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions
Season series: First meeting; Blue Jays won 2 of 3 last season
The Blue Jays' 3-game winning streak was snapped Sunday in a 10-4 loss to the Texas Rangers as -113 home favorites, as the Over (7.5) hit. SP José Berríos was hit hard (4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K), and Toronto's offense came only via home runs by C Alejandro Kirk, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a 2-run shot by DH George Springer.
The Pirates' struggles continued Sunday with a 4-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs, marking their seventh defeat in the last 8 games. Pittsburgh lost as +164 road underdogs, pushing on the 7-run total. RF Bryan Reynolds and 3B Nick Gonzales both collected multiple hits, while C Joey Bart had a 2-run double in the sixth inning.
Blue Jays at Pirates projected starters
RHP Kevin Gausman vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA) is making his 25th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 142 2/3 innings.
Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA) is making his 26th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 148 innings.
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Blue Jays at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Blue Jays at Pirates picks and predictions
Pirates 3, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (-120).
The Pirates should feel confident with Skenes back on the mound Monday at PNC Park. The young stud has been nothing short of dominant in his last 3 home starts, going 3-0 with 0 ER allowed, just 13 hits surrendered, and 23 strikeouts over 18 innings. His presence gives Pittsburgh exactly what they need to snap out of their recent struggles.
The Pirates have been a far better team at home this season, sitting 5 games above .500 at PNC Park compared to 26 games under on the road. Their pitching has been especially strong at home, with a 3.53 team ERA—seventh best in MLB—thanks in large part to Skenes' dominance.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are just 5-5 in their last 10 road games, making them a vulnerable opponent. Given Skenes' form and Pittsburgh's overall home strength, the Pirates are in an excellent spot to grab a much-needed win on Monday night.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I don't like the odds on the run line and will keep my wager to the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7 (-115).
Skenes' dominance at home has been well-documented, but Gausman has been just as effective on the road lately. Over his last 3 road starts, he's gone 1-1 while allowing just 4 ER across 18 innings. With both starters in strong form, runs will be tough to come by Monday. The Pirates are 2-0-1 to the Under in their last 3 games, and the Under has also cashed in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these clubs. With elite pitching on display, this matchup shapes up as a low-scoring affair where the Under looks like the smart play.
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