Thaksin's role in tariff talks raises questions

Bangkok Post

14-07-2025

'I have to do something for the country. Regarding the economic situation today, if I do not poke my nose in, then who will?" so said former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Thursday during a forum held at the National Office.
Then, the following day, Thaksin was seen entering the Ban Phitsanuloke guest house to attend a meeting of "Team Thailand" for talks about Thailand's latest tariff proposal to the United States after the first round of tariff talks in Washington DC, which was a complete failure as the US did not cut the 36% reciprocal tariff rate originally imposed on Thai products imported to US market.
Even Cambodia had the rare chance of taunting Thailand, claiming it managed to outsmart Thailand by convincing the US to cut the tariff rate for Cambodian products from 49% to 36%, which is on par with the rate imposed on Thailand by the US.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, who headed Team Thailand in the first round of the tariff talks, admitted he invited Thaksin to the meeting at Ban Phitsanuloke because the former prime minister was well-versed in the issue at stake and he might provide some valuable advice to the team. He is now under fire for a supposed ethics breach in extending the invitation.
Several other Pheu Thai heavyweights have hailed Thaksin for his economic acumen and expertise, although the former prime minister was not a trained economist, but has a degree in criminology.
They all believe Thaksin is the only person who can save Thailand from the punishing 36% tariff rate, which will wipe out Thailand's trade competitiveness in the US market compared to the other Asean nations.
Except for Laos and Myanmar, which are not major exporters to the US and are facing a 40% tariff rate each, other Asean countries are facing lower rates than Thailand: 20% for Vietnam, although it is not formalised yet; 25% for Malaysia, 20% for the Philippines, 10% for Singapore, and 32% for Indonesia.
Some critics have asked in what capacity was he at the meeting? Thaksin is not a member of the Pheu Thai Party because of his conviction on corruption charges.
For a man of strong character like Thaksin, one could guess that he would have sat at the head of the table, dictating the Team Thailand meeting similar to the way he has been pulling the strings behind the party and the cabinet.
It is such an open secret that even Thaksin himself does not bother to keep it under the rug, despite the party being at risk of dissolution for allowing an outsider to wield influence or control over the party.
Another failure by Team Thailand will be disastrous for the economy.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has estimated that revenue loss for Thai exports to the US market would be about 900 billion baht per annum if Thailand was hit with a 36% tariff.
Thai imports will be replaced by imports from Vietnam or Mexico. That means many small- and medium-sized enterprises may be closed and big manufacturers may cut production, resulting in mass layoffs.
Foreign direct investments will shrink drastically because Thailand will not be attractive any more, and manufacturers may consider relocating elsewhere, such as Vietnam.
Finding new markets for Thai products is easier said than done and near impossible.
India is touted as a potential market because of its huge population, but its purchasing power cannot be compared with that of American consumers.
If Thaksin is so smart and well-versed in trade and tariff issues, why didn't he volunteer to offer his valuable advice to Team Thailand from the beginning?
Thaksin's faithful supporters have bragged about his close connections with those around President Donald Trump, but why didn't he make use of his connections in the first place?
Will his involvement in the preparation of the revised tariff proposal work its magic this time?
Since Thaksin has decided to poke his nose in this crucial matter at his own initiative, should he be held accountable if the team fails this time?
But to be honest, most Thais, even those who despise Thaksin for his alleged abuses, special privileges and wrongdoing, do not want Team Thailand to fail because the high cost of failure is too much to bear.
Be realistic -- we do not expect a fair deal from the Trump administration, which has made clear that Thailand has enjoyed a substantial trade surplus with the US for a long time.
Regardless, we expect the US to treat us as a trusted ally, and the tariff rate should be adjusted to the point where Thai products can remain competitive in the US market.
That should be fine enough.