In another step forward, India to host Chinese vice minister for talks
Chinese vice foreign minister Sun Weidong is likely to travel to India this week for what will be the second high-level bilateral visit from either side this year, following foreign secretary Vikram Misri's visit to Beijing in January during which Sun and Misri had agreed to a slew of measures aimed at normalizing ties.
The 2-day visit by Sun will be the latest reinforcement of the improvement in bilateral ties resulting from the completion of the troop disengagement process in eastern Ladakh, after almost 5 years of a military standoff that wrecked the relationship. This was quickly followed by a meeting of PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping in Russia in October and the resumption of the Special Representatives' (SR) Talks on the Boundary Question 2 months later.
ToI has learnt that Sun will arrive in India on Thursday for a 2-day visit that will likely see him calling on NSA Ajit Doval, apart from holding talks under the foreign secretary-vice minister mechanism. Doval is also likely to host the Chinese Special Representative, Wang Yi, who doubles up as foreign minister, later this year for another round of SR talks.
The meeting this week will be an important occasion for India and China to review progress on steps announced in January to normalize the relationship. The 2 sides had then agreed to resume the
Kailash Mansarovar Yatra
in the summer of 2025, an Indian demand that has been fulfilled.
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While there has also been progress in cooperation on trans-border rivers, both sides are yet to resume direct air services between the 2 countries, something they had agreed to do 'in principle' in January.
The 2 sides will likely also touch upon the possibility of a visit by PM Narendra Modi to China in September to cap a year of détente in the bilateral relationship. Modi has been invited for the SCO summit in Tianjin but is yet to confirm his participation.
The summit will be preceded by a meeting of the foreign ministers which external affairs minister S Jaishankar is likely to attend. The visit by Sun, who served as ambassador to India when the eastern Ladakh standoff erupted, also signals an intent on the part of both sides to build upon the nascent thaw in the relationship, not allowing India-Pakistan hostilities to come in the way.
India wants dialogue mechanisms to be resumed step by step, in a way that allows both sides to address each other's concerns. India is likely to raise its concerns related to trade in the meeting, as it seeks a more transparent and predictable economic and trade relationship. Both sides in the last Misri-Sun meeting had also agreed to facilitate people-to-people exchanges, including media and think-tank interactions.
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Time of India
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- Time of India
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Indian Express
11 minutes ago
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RBI Explained – History, tools of monetary policy, and surplus transfer
UPSC Issue at a Glance is an initiative by UPSC Essentials aimed at streamlining your preparation for the prelims and mains examinations by focusing on current issues making headlines. Every Thursday, cover a new topic in a lucid way. This week we take you through the history, functions, monetary policy instruments and arrangements between the Reserve Bank of India and the government. Let's get started. If you missed the previous UPSC Issue at a Glance | India's Linguistic Landscape: From constitutional safeguards to endangered languages from the Indian Express, read it here. The Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has slashed the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points to 5.50 per cent, marking the third consecutive reduction since February 2025. Additionally, the Board of the RBI on May 23 approved a record surplus transfer, or dividend, of Rs 2.69 lakh crore to the Central Government for the accounting year 2024-25. It followed a meeting of the central board of directors of the RBI on May 15. In this context, it becomes essential to know about the RBI and its monetary policy comprehensively and understand how the relationship between the RBI and the government has evolved in the backdrop of the transfer of the RBI's surplus. (Relevance: UPSC Examination General Studies-III: Current events of national and international importance, Indian economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation of resources, growth, development and employment. Every aspect of the RBI, from its origin, structure, and key functions to its evolving policies, holds importance for UPSC CSE. Previously, several questions have been asked on this topic. This year's UPSC Prelims also had a question on the RBI's functions (do check it in the post-read questions), which presents the RBI as an evergreen topic in the economy section that aspirants must prepare comprehensively.) The Reserve Bank of India is a central bank of India. While central banks in developed countries can be traced as far back as the 17th century, among developing countries, the Reserve Bank of India, established on April 1, 1935, is one of the oldest such institutions. It was established in accordance with the provisions of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. The first Governor of the RBI was the Australian Sir Osborne Arkell Smith, one of the two managing governors of the Imperial Bank of India. Sir C. D. Deshmukh was the first Indian to become Governor of the RBI. The Central Office of the Reserve Bank was initially established in Kolkata but was permanently moved to Mumbai in 1937. Following Partition, it was agreed that the RBI would cease to be the currency authority for Pakistan, and Indian notes would cease to be legal tender in Pakistan. Though originally privately owned, since nationalisation in 1949, the Reserve Bank has been fully owned by the Government of India. Functions of RBI Since it came into existence, RBI has navigated and managed the several transitions the country has undergone — from a time when the planning process held sway to a more market-orientated economy and now an increasingly digital economy. Notably, the Preamble of the RBI describes the basic functions of the Reserve Bank as 'to regulate the issue of banknotes and keeping of reserves with a view to securing monetary stability in India and generally to operate the currency and credit system of the country to its advantage; to have a modern monetary policy framework to meet the challenge of an increasingly complex economy; and to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.' In simple terms, the RBI is responsible for monetary stability, currency management, inflation targeting, regulating the banking system, setting interest rates, and managing the currency and payment systems. Monetary policy refers to the use of monetary instruments under the control of the central bank to influence variables, such as interest rates, money supply and the availability of credit, with a view to achieving the objectives of the policy. The monetary policy is used by the RBI to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth. Notably, in May 2016, the RBI Act was amended to provide a legislative mandate to the central bank to operate the country's monetary policy framework. The framework, according to the RBI website, 'aims at setting the policy (repo) rate based on an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation and modulation of liquidity conditions to anchor money market rates at or around the repo rate.' Instruments of Monetary Policy Various direct and indirect instruments are used by the RBI for implementing monetary policy, including Repo Rate, Reverse Repo Rate, Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), Bank Rate, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Open Market Operations (OMOs) and Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS). 📌 Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF): The LAF refers to the RBI's operations through which it injects or absorbs liquidity into or from the banking system. LAF is a facility extended by RBI to the scheduled commercial banks (excluding regional rural banks) and primary dealers to avail of liquidity in case of a requirement or park excess funds with RBI in case of excess liquidity on an overnight basis against the collateral of G-Secs, including state development loans (SDLs). 📌 Repo Rate: It is the interest rate at which the Reserve Bank provides overnight liquidity to banks against the collateral of government and other approved securities under the LAF. It is the policy rate decided by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). 📌 Reverse Repo Rate: It is the interest rate at which the Reserve Bank absorbs liquidity, on an overnight basis, from banks against the collateral of eligible government securities under the LAF. 📌 Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate: It is the rate at which a bank can borrow, on an overnight basis, from the RBI in an emergency situation when inter-bank liquidity dries up completely. It is typically placed at 25 basis points above the policy repo rate. 📌 Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) Rate: It is the rate at which the RBI, on an overnight basis, accepts uncollateralised deposits from all liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) participants. The SDF is also a financial stability tool in addition to its role in liquidity management. It was introduced in 2022 to replace the fixed-rate reverse repo (FRRR) as the floor of the liquidity adjustment facility corridor. 📌 Main Liquidity Management Tool: To manage the frictional liquidity requirements, a 14-day term repo/reverse repo auction operation at a variable rate is conducted to coincide with the cash reserve ratio (CRR) maintenance cycle. 📌 Bank Rate: In case of shortfalls in meeting the reserve requirements (cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio) by the banks, the Reserve Bank provides to buy or rediscount bills of exchange or other commercial papers at a rate which is called 'bank rate'. 📌 Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): It is the percentage of a bank's net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) that is required to be maintained in liquid cash with the RBI as a reserve. The RBI determines the CRR percentage from time to time. 📌 Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR): Every bank is required to maintain Indian assets, the value of which shall not be less than such a percentage of the total of its demand and time liabilities in India as of the last Friday of the second preceding fortnight, in the form of liquid cash, gold, and government and state government securities. 📌 Open Market Operations (OMOs): These include outright purchases or sales of government securities by the Reserve Bank for injection or absorption of durable liquidity in the banking system. 📌 Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS): This instrument for monetary management was introduced in 2004. Surplus liquidity of a more enduring nature arising from large capital inflows is absorbed through the sale of short-dated government securities and treasury bills. Depending upon the nature of the surplus liquidity (long-term/short-term), the securities under MSS (long-term dated securities/short-term CMBs) are issued. The cash so mobilised is held in a separate government account with the Reserve Bank. Monetary Policy transmission through the Repo Rate According to the official site of the RBI, 'Monetary transmission is the process through which monetary policy impulses in the form of policy rate changes by a central bank are transmitted to the entire spectrum of interest rates, such as money market rates, bond yields, bank deposit and lending rates and asset prices, such as stock prices and house prices.' Let's understand how the repo rate change affects the liquidity in the economy and transmits the objective of the monetary policy. When the RBI wants to encourage economic activity in the economy, it reduces the repo rate. Doing this enables commercial banks to bring down the interest rates they charge (on their loans) as well as the interest rate they pay on deposits. This, in turn, incentivises people to spend money, because keeping their savings in the bank now pays back a little less, and businesses are incentivised to take new loans for new investments because new loans now cost a little less as well. When the RBI wants to control inflation, it increases the repo rate. Banks thus have to pay more interest to borrow from the RBI, which means they will charge more interest to their borrowers. At a macro level, this inhibits people from borrowing money as well as from spending, which in turn reduces the amount of money in the market, and thus negates inflation. Monetary Policy Committee Under Section 45ZB of the amended RBI Act, 1934, the central government is empowered to constitute a six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to determine the policy interest rate required to achieve the inflation target. It lays down that 'the Monetary Policy Committee shall determine the Policy Rate required to achieve the inflation target', and that 'the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee shall be binding on the Bank'. The first such MPC was constituted on September 29, 2016. Section 45ZB says the MPC shall consist of the RBI Governor as its ex officio chairperson, the Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy, an officer of the Bank to be nominated by the Central Board, and three persons to be appointed by the central government. The last category of appointments must be from 'persons of ability, integrity and standing, having knowledge and experience in the field of economics or banking or finance or monetary policy'. (Section 45ZC) The MPC is required to meet at least four times per year. The MPC meets with a quorum of four members. Each member of the MPC has one vote, and in the event of an equality of votes, the Governor has a second or casting vote. Do you know who the members of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are? In 2017, UPSC asked a question on it. Do check it in the post-read questions. Both monetary policy and fiscal policy serve as critical tools for managing the economy of our country; thus, it becomes crucial to understand the differences between these policies for comprehending how economic decisions are made and impact various sectors. One key distinction between monetary and fiscal policy lies in their implementation authorities and tools. Monetary policy is formulated and implemented by the RBI, which primarily focuses on regulating the money supply, interest rates, and inflation levels. The RBI uses monetary policy instruments such as the repo rate to manage liquidity in the financial system. On the other hand, the government makes decisions pertaining to fiscal policy, and the Ministry of Finance plays a central role in formulating budgets, tax policies, and expenditure plans. The government employs fiscal policy to manage aggregate demand, promote growth, and address socioeconomic challenges. Additionally, monetary policy tends to affect borrowing costs and financial markets more immediately, which affects investment and consumption patterns. Fiscal policy measures, on the other hand, such as tax reforms or infrastructure spending, may have longer-term and more extensive effects on economic development and growth. An independent central bank plays a critical role in the macroeconomic management of the country. Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is critical for the economy and for creating a 'Viksit Bharat'. — Express View on 90 years of RBI The RBI as a central bank is not only mandated to keep inflation or prices in check through monetary policy, but it is also supposed to manage the borrowings of the Government of India and state governments; supervise or regulate banks and non-banking finance companies; and manage the currency and payment systems While carrying out these functions or operations, the RBI registers profits. Generally, the central bank's income comes from the: (i) Returns earned on its foreign currency assets, which could be in the form of bonds and treasury bills of other central banks or top-rated securities, and deposits with other central banks. (ii) Interest on its holdings of local rupee-denominated government bonds or securities, and while lending to banks for very short tenures, such as overnight. (iii) It claims a management commission on handling the borrowings of state governments and the central government. Whereas, RBI's expenditure is mainly on the printing of currency notes and staff, besides the commission it gives to banks for undertaking transactions on behalf of the government across the country, and to primary dealers, including banks, for underwriting some of these borrowings. As the RBI isn't a commercial organisation like the banks or other companies that are owned or controlled by the government – it does not, as such, pay a 'dividend' to the owner out of the profits it generates. Although the RBI was promoted as a private shareholders' bank in 1935 with a paid-up capital of Rs 5 crore, the government nationalised it in January 1949, making the sovereign its 'owner'. What the central bank does, therefore, is transfer the 'surplus' – that is, the excess of income over expenditure – to the government, in accordance with Section 47 (Allocation of Surplus Profits) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934: After making provision for bad and doubtful debts, depreciation in assets, contributions to staff and superannuation fund [and for all other matters for which] provision is to be made by or under this Act or which are usually provided for by bankers, the balance, of the profits shall be paid to the Central Government. The Central Board of the RBI does this in early August, after the July-June accounting year is over. Malegam committee In 2013, a technical committee of the RBI Board, headed by Y. H. Malegam, reviewed the adequacy of reserves and a surplus distribution policy and recommended a higher transfer to the government. Earlier, the RBI transferred part of the surplus to the Contingency Fund, to meet unexpected and unforeseen contingencies, and to the Asset Development Fund, to meet internal capital expenditure and investments in its subsidiaries, in keeping with the recommendation of a committee to build contingency reserves of 12% of its balance sheet. But after the Malegam committee made its recommendation, in 2013-14, the RBI's transfer of surplus to the government as a percentage of gross income (less expenditure) shot up to 99.99% from 53.40% in 2012-13. (1) Which of the following are the sources of income for the Reserve Bank of India? (UPSC CSE 2025) I. Buying and selling Government bonds II. Buying and selling foreign currency III. Pension fund management IV. Lending to private companies V. Printing and distributing currency notes Select the correct answer using the code given below. (a) I and II only (b) II, III and IV (c) I, III, IV and V (d) I , II and V (2) If the RBI decides to adopt an expansionist monetary policy, which of the following would it not do? (UPSC CSE 2020) 1. Cut and optimize the Statutory Liquidity Ratio 2. Increase the Marginal Standing Facility Rate 3. Cut the Bank Rate and Repo Rate Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3 (3) Which of the following statements is/are correct regarding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)? (UPSC CSE 2017) 1. It decides the RBI's benchmark interest rates. 2. It is a 12-member body including the Governor of RBI and is reconstituted every year. 3. It functions under the chairmanship of the Union Finance Minister. Select the correct answer using the code given below : (a) 1 only (b) 1 and 2 only (c) 3 only (d) 2 and 3 only (Sources: 90 years of the RBI, Knowledge Nugget: RBI's Monetary policy instruments, , RBI approves record transfer 'surplus' to govt: Why does this transfer happen, and how?) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – Indian Express UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at
Time of India
12 minutes ago
- Time of India
COVID-19 without a vaccine: How many people would have died? Here's a thought experiment
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Hospitals turn into war zones Remember how things were in early 2020? Now multiply that by years. With no vaccine to protect even the most vulnerable, hospitals become battlegrounds. ICUs are filled to the brim. Nurses are running on caffeine and heartbreak. Doctors are forced to make unthinkable decisions: Who gets the last ventilator? Whose life gets saved? Elective surgeries are cancelled. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Perdagangkan CFD Emas dengan Broker Tepercaya IC Markets Mendaftar Undo Cancer treatments are delayed. Pregnant women face birthing in isolated COVID wards. The ripple effect is brutal, and it's not just COVID killing people anymore—it's everything else the system can't handle. The economy? Without vaccines, lockdowns become the only tool left to fight transmission. Entire industries collapse. Tourism? Ghost town. Restaurants? Bleeding money. Schools? On-again, off-again like a bad relationship. Small businesses close shops permanently. Unemployment soars. Mental health spirals. Zoom fatigue becomes a real medical condition (okay, not officially, but it should be). Parents juggle full-time jobs with full-time homeschooling. And kids? They lose precious years of real education, social skills, and childhood joy. Governments try stimulus packages, but the longer the pandemic drags on, the more the global economy limps. Developing countries, especially, are hit hard. Inequality widens. Some people can afford to stay home and get groceries delivered; others have to risk their lives daily to survive. Variants rule the world In our real timeline, vaccines helped prevent the worst-case scenario with Delta and Omicron. But in this world? Mutations go unchecked. Each wave is worse than the last. One variant is deadlier, another more contagious, a third one possibly affects kids more than adults. Every time we think, 'This is the peak,' a new spike slams the world back into lockdown. Scientists scramble for therapies—monoclonal antibodies, antivirals, you name it. But without widespread immunity, the virus has the upper hand. You can treat individuals, sure, but you can't stop mass transmission. Life becomes a constant trade-off Want to go to a concert? Too risky. Visit your parents? Depends on their age and how full the hospitals are. Dating? Let's just say 'Zoom first, maybe meet in 2027.' Weddings are still on hold, funerals are livestreamed, and holiday gatherings come with moral dilemmas. Everything becomes a personal risk assessment. Every cough sends someone into a panic spiral. Your social calendar isn't built around fun anymore—it's built around fear and exposure. Air travel remains restricted or totally banned in many countries. Global movement slows down. Cultural exchanges, international students, and borderless careers? Put on indefinite pause. The human toll Without vaccines, we could've lost tens of millions more people—young, old, rich, poor. It wouldn't just be about health; it would be about identity, grief, and generational trauma. Healthcare workers would burn out at record speed. Entire families would be wiped out. Essential workers—from delivery drivers to sanitation staff—would keep everything running while taking the biggest risks. The 'clap for heroes' moments would fade, replaced by frustration and despair. And long COVID? That silent, chronic thief of energy and brainpower would be far more common. We'd have millions of people unable to work or function at their previous level—with no end in sight. But wouldn't we have reached herd immunity naturally? Sure, some argue that we might've eventually achieved herd immunity the 'natural' way. But let's break that down. For that to happen, 70–90% of the global population would need to get infected and survive. With a 1–3% mortality rate (conservative estimate), we're talking tens of millions of deaths just to get there. And that's before accounting for new variants resetting the clock. It's not 'natural immunity'—it's a brutal numbers game. Plus, immunity from natural infection doesn't always last. Without vaccines, reinfections would be common. You'd never really feel safe. So… why does this matter? Because we came dangerously close to this version of reality. Vaccines didn't just save lives—they saved livelihoods. They helped reopen schools, revive businesses, reunite families. They gave us a path back to something resembling normal. And even though they weren't perfect (hello, breakthrough infections), they drastically reduced hospitalizations, severe illness, and death. They bought us time. They gave scientists breathing room to study the virus and develop treatments. They allowed healthcare systems to catch up. And they reminded us that global collaboration, for all its flaws, can move mountains when the stakes are high. So next time someone downplays the vaccine effort or tosses out a conspiracy theory, remember: the alternative wasn't some magical utopia where everyone lived happily ever after without shots. It was this—an endless cycle of grief, isolation, and survival. We didn't get everything right in this pandemic, but the vaccine? That was one of humanity's best comeback moves. Thank science, thank researchers, and thank your lucky stars we didn't get stuck in the timeline without it. One step to a healthier you—join Times Health+ Yoga and feel the change
