Manufacturing sector braces for Trump's tariffs
Despite recent output increases, the sector is already under strain.
Logistics nightmares, soaring input costs, and escalating electricity prices are further squeezing manufacturers.
The CSIR is hosting a Manufacturing Indaba in Johannesburg with many of these issues set to be addressed.
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Daily Maverick
2 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Can SA forge a new consensus at G20 summit?
For the second time this year, the world's most powerful finance ministers have gathered in South Africa, this time at the lush resort of Zimbali north of Durban. But one minister will once again be conspicuous by his absence: that from the US. Scott Bessent, the mercurial US Treasury Secretary, has once again skipped the G20, choosing instead to send Michael Kaplan, the acting undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury. It all started when Secretary of State Marco Rubio refused to participate due to the host's vision of this year's G20 presidency being about 'Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability' — principles the current US administration theatrically rejects. In one sense, the timing of this South African presidency of the G20 could not be worse. Faced with the anti-globalist, protectionist bent of the US, what is usually a processional opportunity for showcasing a nation's soft power and producing vacuous missives about global cooperation has become a near impossible job of managing diplomatic fallout. As the first country from Africa to host the G20, South Africa had hoped to push issues vital for the very developing nations that stand to lose the most from the US president's trade war. With US aid budgets cut to virtual non-existence, and with tariffs about to decimate the export industries that, until now, had been the only hope for small African developing countries to build some semblance of a manufacturing sector, South Africa now finds itself managing the wreckage of international consensus. The G20 is a relatively new arrival to the international global system of forums and talk shops. Established as a response to the global financial crisis in 2008, the whole point was for countries like the US, the UK and the EU to include the faster growing nations of the Global South, which were becoming increasingly critical to the global economy. That promise now looks increasingly hollow. US vs the world: SA salvages G20 How naïve and quaint that looks, from the perspective of the realpolitik of 2025. In addition to Trump's threat of crippling levies on key trading partners from 1 August 2025, the US president has taken aim at the BRICS bloc of emerging economies — which includes host nation South Africa — threatening an extra 10% tariff for 'anti-American' policies. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, following the BRICS summit in Rio last week, was the first of the group to hit back. 'The president of the US must recognise that multiple centres of power now define the global landscape,' he said. Ramaphosa is still trying to convince Trump to attend a G20 leaders' summit in Johannesburg in November, where he is due to hand over the presidency of the group to the US. But hopes that Trump will support any of South Africa's G20 initiatives have largely been extinguished. Under fire from corruption scandals at home, Ramaphosa's efforts are increasingly looking to be in vain. The G20 international outreach also follows a highly publicised Oval Office dressing-down, where Trump repeated false claims about a so-called genocide against white South African farmers. Still, despite Washington's aggressions, South Africa has no option but to press ahead with this week's meetings, which culminate on Thursday and Friday with sessions led by finance ministers and central bank governors. South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago and Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will, at least, be in the limelight as opposed to the embattled president. The EU is now in the firing line It is not only developing countries that have been targeted by Trump. On Saturday, the EU received a typically condescending letter from Trump, threatening blanket tariffs on European goods. In a message that appeared to be copied and pasted from the one sent to South Africa and countless other recipients, Trump invited the EU to 'participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World', while warning of sweeping new levies. His parting line, as ever: 'Thank you for your attention to this matter!' The proposed 30% tariff rate, together with existing sectoral duties and an expected levy on critical goods, would take the increase in the US effective tariff rate on the EU to a brutal 26%. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, if implemented and sustained, it would lower euro area GDP by 1.2% by the end of 2026. The US is the largest trade partner of the EU, with the sum of exports from the EU totalling $815-billion in 2024. The EU understands that such a trade restriction with its biggest partner is nothing short of an existential challenge. In response, the bloc is actively seeking to diversify its trade ties. Besides Canada and Japan, the bloc is now fast-tracking agreements with India and other Asia-Pacific nations. Speaking from Beijing, EU competition chief Teresa Ribera confirmed that discussions with India are expected to conclude by year's end. 'We need to explore how far, how deep we can go in the Pacific area with other countries.' Africa will undoubtedly be next. Can South Africa lead a G19 without the US? Where the tariff war ends is anyone's guess. But with the US — the architect of the post-war global order — now acting as a destabilising force, the need for alternative alliances and renewed multilateralism between other parties has never been clearer. Already, the US absence has drawn others closer. After Rubio's withdrawal, the EU publicly endorsed South Africa's G20 agenda. Within weeks, the EU and South Africa held their first summit since 2018, marking a thaw in previously strained relations. Strangely then this year's G20 could prove to be its most consequential since its inception. Will it become the moment when the rest of the world reaffirms a commitment to open markets, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation? Or will it cement the beginning of the end for the rules-based global economy? In that sense therefore the timing of South Africa's G20 presidency could not be better. As a nation that once symbolised the post-Cold War liberal ideals of inclusion and equality, it is perhaps fitting that it should fall to us to rally the Global South and like-minded powers toward a new consensus. But the challenge is enormous. Can Ramaphosa — wounded politically and isolated diplomatically — rise to the occasion? Can South Africa lead a meaningful G19 in the absence of the US? To quote Tennyson's Ulysses, while 'death closes all, some work of noble note may yet be done'. The South African president may identify with the itinerant Greek after his own interminable political odyssey. Given his patchy track record in office, the answer may not be encouraging. And yet, history never asks whether leaders are ready. It simply presents the moment. Ramaphosa now faces his. DM
Daily Maverick
2 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Socioeconomic crisis looms as US tariffs hit Eastern Cape's vital automotive industry hard
The Automotive Business Council says it is hopeful that a proposal for 40,000 tariff-free vehicles for export to the US will find favour, as the impact of tariffs in their current form will be catastrophic for both the manufacturing industry and the Eastern Cape. 'This is not just a trade issue, it's a socioeconomic crisis in the making,' CEO of the Automotive Business Council (Naamsa) Mikel Mabasa said on Tuesday. The organisation, like many others in the Eastern Cape, is grappling to come to terms with the devastating impact of export tariffs imposed by the United States. Mabasa said the export tariffs threatened thousands of jobs in the automotive sector, disrupted hard-won industrial capabilities, and risked devastating communities such as East London, where the automotive sector formed the economic heartbeat of the town. He said Naamsa was, however, encouraged by South Africa's early proposals for a quota of 40,000 duty-free vehicle units per annum, 'which would allow us to retain our footprint in this key market'. He said that if the country could not retain export markets such as the US, 'we risk turning vibrant industrial hubs into ghost towns'. Ripple effects through the value chain He said the ripple effects of production loss due to disappearing export markets would be felt throughout the automotive value chain – from component manufacturers to logistics providers, and across the thousands of workers and families who depended on the sector for their livelihoods. 'Export diversification and finding new markets is not something that can be achieved overnight. Our global competitors are already redirecting their exports into markets we traditionally serve. This intensifies the pressure on our original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), who must now absorb rising costs, reduce production, and reconsider future investments,' he said. Urgent diplomacy needed 'We have also taken note of President Cyril Ramaphosa's formal response on the same day, which confirmed South Africa's diplomatic and strategic approach to this matter. He said South Africa's automotive sector was particularly vulnerable to the 25% sectoral tariff imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which specifically targeted automotive exports. This escalation in trade tensions poses a serious threat to one of South Africa's most globally integrated and export-oriented industries. He said the United States had consistently been South Africa's second-largest trading partner and key export destination for South African manufactured vehicles. Agoa at risk – billions in trade and thousands of vehicles 'Since the inception of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the automotive industry has benefited from substantial two-way trade and investment. In 2024, the auto sector accounted for 64% of all Agoa trade between South Africa and the US, generating R28.6-billion in export revenue, with 24,681 vehicles exported to the US under Agoa,' Mabasa said. He said the effect of just the anticipation of the high export tariffs, however, had been devastating to the industry and had an immediate effect on trade performance. He said that even before the formal effect of the tariffs, vehicle exports to the US dropped by 73% in the first four months of 2025, followed by a further decline of 80% and 85% in April and May, respectively. 'This represents a risk of a direct loss of vehicle and component export volumes, and annual export earnings, which would be difficult to recover in the short term,' he said. OEMs under pressure But the news is even worse, he said, as tariff disruptions placed major pressure on [OEMs], who had made long-standing industrial commitments to South Africa and invested significantly in local manufacturing, skills development and export infrastructure. The SA automotive industry contributes 22.6% of the country's total domestic manufacturing output and directly supports 110,000 formal sector jobs. Mabasa said Naamsa welcomed the SA government's continued diplomatic engagement with the US, including discussions held on the sidelines of the US-Africa Summit in Luanda on 23 June 2025, and the submission of SA's Framework Deal on 20 May 2025 to address the concerns raised by the US government. 'We urge both governments to accelerate negotiations toward a balanced, rules-based trade agreement. We are encouraged by early proposals for a quota of 40,000 duty-free vehicle units per annum, which would allow us to retain our footprint in this key market. It's vital that we use this opportunity to preserve the business case for continued investment', he said. Mabasa, however, emphasised the need to prepare for a more uncertain and competitive global landscape. Behind every statistic are people and communities 'Naamsa is equally concerned about the livelihood impact of these developments. Behind every tariff statistic are real people – auto workers, supply chain technicians, logistics operators and their families. Nowhere is this more visible than in East London, a community that has grown and thrived on the back of automotive exports. 'The erosion of this trade threatens to unravel decades of socioeconomic progress. We urge all parties involved in the diplomatic negotiations to recognise the strategic and social importance of safeguarding mutually beneficial trade frameworks like Agoa, and to avoid short-term decisions that carry long-term consequences for vulnerable regions,' Mabasa said. CEO of the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber Denise van Huyssteen, said it was clear that the US trade tariffs, planned for implementation on 1 August, would have a disproportionate impact on the Eastern Cape economy given its high reliance on the automotive sector. 'The initial most vulnerable automotive and components manufacturers will be those who directly export products to the United States. The tariffs will put them in a very uncompetitive position, making it difficult to continue to do trade with the US, which could lead to export orders drying up. This, in turn, will have a knock-on impact on direct and indirect suppliers located in East London and Nelson Mandela Bay, and the overall supporting ecosystem around these manufacturers, who may or may not be able to withstand the loss in volume. 'Additionally, as the volumes, especially of [OEMs], potentially decline, economies of scale are diminished, potentially putting some components manufacturers in a position where they are unable to continue a viable supply to their other OEM customers located elsewhere in the country,' she said. Competitiveness crisis She said the tariff structure also meant that manufacturers who exported products to other parts of the world may now be competing with other countries that had significant cost advantages over South Africa, as they faced lower tariffs or could absorb the tariffs. 'Essentially, the global trade order has been upended, and this is likely to affect global manufacturing footprints and where the best locations will be to produce products in the future,' Van Huyssteen said. She said that switching markets was not a quick solution as these measures took time to implement, and neither would 'replace' current OEMs with new ones. 'On this score, and in order to retain employment, it is vital that any potential incoming OEM investors commit to utilising local components for their manufacturing operations,' she said. Unemployment warning for Nelson Mandela Bay She said the chamber also remained deeply concerned about the devastating impact these 'tariff wars' might have on Nelson Mandela Bay's economy and the thousands of jobs supported directly and indirectly through the automotive industry and its supply chain. 'This, in turn, will add to the already unacceptably high unemployment and poverty levels in Nelson Mandela Bay and the Eastern Cape. It must be remembered that Nelson Mandela Bay is home to the greatest number of automotive component suppliers in the country. Furthermore, 41% of the country's automotive manufacturing employment is based in the Bay,' she said. Call for government urgency 'Given how small SA's economy is, the country's response should not be to retaliate, but rather to look internally and consider deploying incentives to support local manufacturers, rather than to keep others out by way of tariffs. This should also incorporate policy support and assistance in establishing new markets for SA-produced goods.' She called for urgency on the side of the government. 'The government needs to move fast and take action in addressing barriers such as excessive red tape and complex policies associated with doing business in the country. Absolute urgency is required to improve the country's competitiveness versus other emerging locations, which have, over the years, become much more attractive investment destinations. 'These even include some countries on this continent who have surpassed South Africa in some key performance areas. Priority focus must be placed on ensuring that the basic enablers are in place, such as well-maintained infrastructure, efficient logistics and the delivery of basic services at a local municipal level, to help improve the competitiveness of local manufacturers and to sustain their continued operations in the Bay.' MEC warns Mercedes-Benz may exit Speaking at the Finance Committee in the Council of Provinces last week, Eastern Cape MEC for Finance Mlungisi Mvoko said they had held discussions with the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC), as the matter significantly affected the Eastern Cape. He highlighted that Mercedes-Benz, currently exporting 90% of the vehicles it manufactures in East London to the United States, was facing the most risk. Mvoko warned that the company might consider withdrawing from South Africa due to the tariff changes. Mvoko said that if Mercedes-Benz were to leave, it would have devastating consequences for the East London Special Economic Zone (SEZ), where many companies existed solely to supply the vehicle maker. He also made it clear that thousands of families in East London and Qonce were reliant on Mercedes-Benz operations. DM
Daily Maverick
2 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Road ahead is steep but not insurmountable– SA's G20 can still deliver for debt and development
The global economy has slowed and become less supportive of developing countries. African countries may be forced to resort to international capital markets to fill the gap in their development financing needs. It is crunch time for South Africa to begin delivering on its ambitious G20 development finance agenda. The third of the four meetings this year of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors takes place on 17 and 18 July. A communiqué is expected to be issued, focusing on the development finance issues that South Africa prioritised at the beginning of its G20 presidency. The agenda includes politically and economically complicated topics such as sovereign debt and the cost of capital and climate finance, which are issues that are high on the global policy agenda. At the recent African Union Conference on Debt held in Togo in May, African leaders, among other matters, called for the reform of the G20 common framework and for a 'new debt doctrine'. The Compromiso de Sevilla, the outcome document from the recently concluded UN-sponsored Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), also acknowledged the need for a more development-oriented debt architecture. Unfortunately, the international economic environment in which South Africa needs to deliver on this agenda has become significantly more complex and challenging. The global economy has slowed and become less supportive of developing countries. The World Bank recently reduced its estimate of global growth from about 2.8% to 2.3% and forecast that average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s would be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s. Its chief economist declared that ' outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone '. Some G20 participating states have become less supportive of developing countries. For example, the US and the UK, among other countries, have significantly cut their official development assistance, with the US going as far as eliminating USAid, its main aid agency. US President Donald Trump's administration also pulled out of FfD4 and has given mixed signals on his participation in the G20 summit in November. He has even opposed the theme for South Africa's G20 presidency – Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability. These developments aggravate Africa's development challenges. Currently, Africa has an annual financing gap of around $900-billion to $1.3-trillion for Agenda 2063 and the SDGs. While domestic resources should be the major source of each country's financing for these needs, they are unlikely to be enough in the short to medium term. Unfortunately, the amount of funding from official sources such as donor governments and the multilateral development banks (MDBs) will not be sufficient to plug this hole. Therefore, African countries may be forced to resort to international capital markets to fill the gap in their development financing needs. The financing these markets offer is expensive, involves exchange rate risks and is pro-cyclical. In addition, evidence suggests that African countries are charged much higher interest rates than countries in other regions with comparable credit ratings. The resulting 'African premium' costs African countries $74.5-billion per year in excess interest payments, according to a UNDP report. The reasons for this premium are still up for debate. It has been attributed to credit rating bias, lack of quality data, a lack of sound fiscal and public finance management by African governments, and to the fact that many African countries are new to international markets, having only started issuing international bonds between 2007 and 2020. Meanwhile, as African countries continue to deal with these tough conditions on the international capital markets, efforts to address their existing debt burden remain painfully slow. The current approach to sovereign debt restructuring uses the common framework developed by the G20 to deal with the obligations to all official and commercial creditors of low-income countries. Unfortunately, this framework has failed to deliver adequate outcomes for African countries. South Africa's G20 presidency provides the next opportunity to address this challenge. As South Africa commences the last half of its G20 Presidency, we suggest that it prioritise the following issues on the development finance agenda: South Africa must champion the Borrowers' Forum This forum, promoted in the outcome document from FfD4, would facilitate the exchange of ideas, information and peer learning among sovereign borrowers. If supported by a permanent secretariat, as proposed in the Report of the UNSG's Expert Group on Debt, the forum could become the repository of information about sovereign borrowing and the source of technical support and capacity building for debtor countries. South Africa should advocate for the G20 to actively support the creation of the forum as soon as possible. It should also work with the African Union and African G20 guest countries to take the first actions to operationalise a regional borrowers forum in Africa. Improving sovereign debt architecture South Africa, as co-chair of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR), must use it as a tool to promote the improvement of the sovereign debt architecture. The FfD4 Compromiso calls for the creation of a working group to propose a set of principles for responsible sovereign borrowing and lending that can make sovereign debt transactions and the international debt architecture more effective, efficient and more supportive of optimal development outcomes. The GSDR was established as an informal G20-linked forum, chaired by the G20 presidency, the IMF and the World Bank. It brings together a diverse array of creditors, debtors and other stakeholders to discuss how to make the sovereign debt process work better for all stakeholders. South Africa should convene a meeting of the GSDR to begin discussing the framework for promoting responsible sovereign borrowing and lending, including the planning and management of such transactions and their outcomes. Panel of technical experts South Africa must advocate for the G20 to appoint a panel of technical experts to study the barriers to affordable, adequate and predictable flows of development finance to African sovereigns and make recommendations on what the G20 can do to remedy this situation. This can complement the work of the African Experts Panel, which has a broader mandate of 'exploring and defining strategies that advance Africa's collective developmental interests'. South Africa's G20 presidency should not be the end of this year's advocacy for a new and more developmentally responsible debt architecture. These actions should also be promoted at the World Social Summit and the COP30 in Brazil. DM Daniel D Bradlow is a part-time G20 Senior Fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), where his research focuses on the finance track of the G20 and related Think20 issues.
