Can SA forge a new consensus at G20 summit?

Daily Maverick

3 days ago

For the second time this year, the world's most powerful finance ministers have gathered in South Africa, this time at the lush resort of Zimbali north of Durban. But one minister will once again be conspicuous by his absence: that from the US.
Scott Bessent, the mercurial US Treasury Secretary, has once again skipped the G20, choosing instead to send Michael Kaplan, the acting undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury. It all started when Secretary of State Marco Rubio refused to participate due to the host's vision of this year's G20 presidency being about 'Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability' — principles the current US administration theatrically rejects.
In one sense, the timing of this South African presidency of the G20 could not be worse. Faced with the anti-globalist, protectionist bent of the US, what is usually a processional opportunity for showcasing a nation's soft power and producing vacuous missives about global cooperation has become a near impossible job of managing diplomatic fallout.
As the first country from Africa to host the G20, South Africa had hoped to push issues vital for the very developing nations that stand to lose the most from the US president's trade war. With US aid budgets cut to virtual non-existence, and with tariffs about to decimate the export industries that, until now, had been the only hope for small African developing countries to build some semblance of a manufacturing sector, South Africa now finds itself managing the wreckage of international consensus.
The G20 is a relatively new arrival to the international global system of forums and talk shops. Established as a response to the global financial crisis in 2008, the whole point was for countries like the US, the UK and the EU to include the faster growing nations of the Global South, which were becoming increasingly critical to the global economy. That promise now looks increasingly hollow.
US vs the world: SA salvages G20
How naïve and quaint that looks, from the perspective of the realpolitik of 2025. In addition to Trump's threat of crippling levies on key trading partners from 1 August 2025, the US president has taken aim at the BRICS bloc of emerging economies — which includes host nation South Africa — threatening an extra 10% tariff for 'anti-American' policies.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, following the BRICS summit in Rio last week, was the first of the group to hit back.
'The president of the US must recognise that multiple centres of power now define the global landscape,' he said.
Ramaphosa is still trying to convince Trump to attend a G20 leaders' summit in Johannesburg in November, where he is due to hand over the presidency of the group to the US. But hopes that Trump will support any of South Africa's G20 initiatives have largely been extinguished.
Under fire from corruption scandals at home, Ramaphosa's efforts are increasingly looking to be in vain. The G20 international outreach also follows a highly publicised Oval Office dressing-down, where Trump repeated false claims about a so-called genocide against white South African farmers.
Still, despite Washington's aggressions, South Africa has no option but to press ahead with this week's meetings, which culminate on Thursday and Friday with sessions led by finance ministers and central bank governors. South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago and Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will, at least, be in the limelight as opposed to the embattled president.
The EU is now in the firing line
It is not only developing countries that have been targeted by Trump. On Saturday, the EU received a typically condescending letter from Trump, threatening blanket tariffs on European goods. In a message that appeared to be copied and pasted from the one sent to South Africa and countless other recipients, Trump invited the EU to 'participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World', while warning of sweeping new levies. His parting line, as ever: 'Thank you for your attention to this matter!'
The proposed 30% tariff rate, together with existing sectoral duties and an expected levy on critical goods, would take the increase in the US effective tariff rate on the EU to a brutal 26%. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, if implemented and sustained, it would lower euro area GDP by 1.2% by the end of 2026. The US is the largest trade partner of the EU, with the sum of exports from the EU totalling $815-billion in 2024.
The EU understands that such a trade restriction with its biggest partner is nothing short of an existential challenge. In response, the bloc is actively seeking to diversify its trade ties. Besides Canada and Japan, the bloc is now fast-tracking agreements with India and other Asia-Pacific nations. Speaking from Beijing, EU competition chief Teresa Ribera confirmed that discussions with India are expected to conclude by year's end.
'We need to explore how far, how deep we can go in the Pacific area with other countries.' Africa will undoubtedly be next.
Can South Africa lead a G19 without the US?
Where the tariff war ends is anyone's guess. But with the US — the architect of the post-war global order — now acting as a destabilising force, the need for alternative alliances and renewed multilateralism between other parties has never been clearer.
Already, the US absence has drawn others closer. After Rubio's withdrawal, the EU publicly endorsed South Africa's G20 agenda. Within weeks, the EU and South Africa held their first summit since 2018, marking a thaw in previously strained relations.
Strangely then this year's G20 could prove to be its most consequential since its inception. Will it become the moment when the rest of the world reaffirms a commitment to open markets, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation? Or will it cement the beginning of the end for the rules-based global economy?
In that sense therefore the timing of South Africa's G20 presidency could not be better. As a nation that once symbolised the post-Cold War liberal ideals of inclusion and equality, it is perhaps fitting that it should fall to us to rally the Global South and like-minded powers toward a new consensus.
But the challenge is enormous. Can Ramaphosa — wounded politically and isolated diplomatically — rise to the occasion? Can South Africa lead a meaningful G19 in the absence of the US? To quote Tennyson's Ulysses, while 'death closes all, some work of noble note may yet be done'. The South African president may identify with the itinerant Greek after his own interminable political odyssey.
Given his patchy track record in office, the answer may not be encouraging. And yet, history never asks whether leaders are ready. It simply presents the moment. Ramaphosa now faces his. DM