
From tech podcasts to policy: Trump's new AI plan leans heavily on Silicon Valley industry ideas
Get Starting Point
A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday.
Enter Email
Sign Up
It might also include some of the AI culture war preoccupations of the circle of venture capitalists who endorsed Trump last year.
Advertisement
Blocking 'woke AI' from tech contractors
Countering the liberal bias they see in AI chatbots such as ChatGPT or Google's Gemini has long been a rallying point for the tech industry's loudest Trump backers.
Sacks, a former PayPal executive and now Trump's top AI adviser, has been criticizing 'woke AI' for more than a year, fueled by Google's February 2024 rollout of an AI image generator that, when asked to show an American Founding Father, created pictures of Black, Latino and Native American men.
Advertisement
'The AI's incapable of giving you accurate answers because it's been so programmed with diversity and inclusion,' Sacks said at the time. Google quickly fixed its tool, but the 'Black George Washington' moment remained a parable for the problem of AI's perceived political bias, taken up by X owner Elon Musk, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, Vice President JD Vance and Republican lawmakers.
The administration's latest push against 'woke AI' comes a week after the Pentagon announced new $200 million contracts with four leading AI companies, including Google, to address 'critical national security challenges.'
Also receiving one of the contracts was Musk's xAI, which has been pitched as an alternative to 'woke AI' companies. The company has faced its own challenges: Earlier this month, xAI had to scramble to remove posts made by its Grok chatbot that made antisemitic comments and praised Adolf Hitler.
Streamlining AI data center permits
Trump has paired AI's need for huge amounts of electricity with his own push to tap into U.S. energy sources, including gas, coal and nuclear.
'Everything we aspire to and hope for means the demand and supply of energy in America has to go up,' said Michael Kratsios, the director of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, in a video posted Tuesday.
Many tech giants are already well on their way toward building new data centers in the U.S. and around the world. OpenAI announced this week that it has switched on the first phase of a massive data center complex in Abilene, Texas, part of an Oracle-backed project known as Stargate that Trump promoted earlier this year. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and xAI also have major projects underway.
Advertisement
The tech industry has pushed for easier permitting rules to get their computing facilities connected to power, but the AI building boom has also contributed to spiking demand for fossil fuel production that will contribute to global warming.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday called on the world's major tech firms to power data centers completely with renewables by 2030.
'A typical AI data center eats up as much electricity as 100,000 homes,' Guterres said. 'By 2030, data centers could consume as much electricity as all of Japan does today.'
A new approach to AI exports?
It's long been White House policy under Republican and Democratic administrations to curtail certain technology exports to China and other adversaries on national security grounds.
But much of the tech industry argued that Biden went too far at the end of his term in trying to restrict the exports of specialized AI computer chips to more than 100 other countries, including close allies.
Part of the Biden administration's motivation was to stop China from acquiring coveted AI chips in third-party locations such as Southeast Asia or the Middle East, but critics said the measures would end up encouraging more countries to turn to China's fast-growing AI industry instead of the U.S. as their technology supplier.
It remains to be seen how the Trump administration aims to accelerate the export of U.S.-made AI technologies while countering China's AI ambitions. California chipmakers Nvidia and AMD both announced last week that they won approval from the Trump administration to sell to China some of their advanced computer chips used to develop artificial intelligence.
Advertisement
AMD CEO Lisa Su is among the guests planning to attend Trump's event Wednesday.
Who benefits from Trump's AI action plan
There are sharp debates on how to regulate AI, even among the influential venture capitalists who have been debating it on their favorite medium: the podcast.
While some Trump backers, particularly Andreessen, have advocated an 'accelerationist' approach that aims to speed up AI advancement with minimal regulation, Sacks has described himself as taking a middle road of techno-realism.
'Technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop. If we don't do it, somebody else will,' Sacks said on the All-In podcast.
On Tuesday, 95 groups including labor unions, parent groups, environmental justice organizations and privacy advocates signed a resolution opposing Trump's embrace of industry-driven AI policy and calling for a 'People's AI Action Plan' that would 'deliver first and foremost for the American people.'
Amba Kak, co-executive director of the AI Now Institute, which helped lead the effort, said the coalition expects Trump's plan to come 'straight from Big Tech's mouth.'
'Every time we say, 'What about our jobs, our air, water, our children?' they're going to say, 'But what about China?'' she said in a call with reporters Tuesday. She said Americans should reject the White House's argument that the industry is overregulated and fight to preserve 'baseline protections for the public' as AI technology advances.
Associated Press writer Seung Min Kim in Washington contributed to this report.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice: Don't evade tariffs
The Justice Department is putting American companies on notice that they could be prosecuted if they chose to evade President Trump's tariffs, even as the legality of the president's "Liberation Day" duties remain unsettled in US courts. The message came in a DOJ announcement earlier this month stipulating that prosecutors would step up investigations into suspiciously classified imports and charge those who misidentify products with fraud. 'While the DOJ has always taken some customs cases, this is a different, more aggressive, visible stance than they usually would,' said Thompson Coburn trade lawyer Robert Shapiro. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances The plan — to be carried out by the DOJ's new Market, Government, and Consumer Fraud Unit — marks a shift in enforcement tactics from prior administrations that relied mostly on policing misconduct through administrative proceedings, even during Trump's first term in office. The new Trump administration instead wants to prioritize criminal charges against companies and individuals that try to evade US tariffs. The overarching strategy was first outlined by Matthew R. Galeotti, head of the Justice Department's Criminal Division, who wrote in a May memo that an increasing focus on white collar crime would include "trade and customs fraudsters, including those who commit tariff evasion." At the same time, the Trump administration finds itself in the unusual position of defending the legality of the duties it pledges to enforce. Oral arguments in a federal lawsuit challenging the president's tariffs are set to take place before the US Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., this Thursday. The small business importers challenging the legal standing of the duties already proved it was possible to temporarily derail Trump's global tariffs with a lower court victory in May. In a separate challenge, two toy manufacturers are scheduled to make their own arguments against Trump's tariffs before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Sept. 30, following their own lower court victory. 'We're going to raise the ante' Tariff violations can be prosecuted under civil or criminal laws. However, even fraud cases were often handled administratively by past administrations, according to Shapiro. 'I think the administration is just saying we're going to raise the ante on this,' Shapiro said. University of Kansas School of Law professor Raj Bhala said laws against customs fraud have long been in force, but the appetite for the DOJ and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to clamp down on violations has increased. Historically, Bhala and other trade lawyers said, prosecutors focused government resources on suspected tariff violations by US adversaries such as China, Iran, and North Korea, and particularly on export controls meant to keep controlled items from shipping to those countries. Producer-exporters, especially in China and other high-tariff regions, have been using evasion techniques for decades, mostly to skirt anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders, Bhala said. But now, under more imposing tariffs, incentives to evade duties have spiked 'enormously.' 'What is clear is that a lot of companies are looking for a way to limit the impact of the duties,' Shapiro said. In this new tariff and enforcement environment, trade experts suspect that corporate America and its trading partners are on high alert. Erika Trujillo, a trade attorney with customs risk management firm SEIA Compliance Technologies, said the shift toward more enforcement happening at the DOJ and less through administrative procedures could increase politically motivated targeting of companies viewed as adverse to the Trump administration's interests. 'I do think trade restrictions were used as both a sword and a shield for foreign companies, or in terms of dealing with international trade,' Trujillo said. Common tariff evasion techniques include misclassifying goods, falsely labeling a product's country of origin, making minor modifications to a product while it's in a lower-tariff jurisdiction to pass it off as manufactured there, and transhipping goods through lower-tariff jurisdictions. Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs 'It's hard to imagine that any well-run company that has supply chains stretching across the globe — particularly in higher-tariff jurisdictions like China or Cambodia — would not be having vigorous discussions to ensure every step in the supply chain is properly documented and audited,' Bhala said. Bhala cautions that the stakes are high for importers subject to US jurisdiction. 'They're the importer of record and they're the ones who are liable for the tariffs,' he said. 'And false declarations are what we call 'go to jail stuff.'' For fraud, fines can also be assessed, up to the domestic value of the merchandise. For civil violations made based on negligent actions, maximum penalties are two times the underpayment of duties, in addition to original duties. For violations based on gross negligence, penalties increase to four times the underpayment of duties. For businesses looking to assess their risk, US Customs maintains an electronic system called the Automated Commercial Environment (ACT) that allows importers to view what their classification data looks like to customs. Small and midsize companies may find it more difficult to evaluate their compliance risks compared to multinational firms. 'If you're an SME, you probably have one or two lawyers, and they're not necessarily trade specialists,' Bhala said. Plus, there are different rules for thousands of products. For example, a typical NAFTA good, he explained, traverses the US-Canada border roughly four times. 'It's really difficult for companies of that size to be dealing with this,' Trujillo said. One major challenge is finding affordable internal expertise. 'Almost every company I know is actively hiring for both customs and export controls, and sanctions. You're basically stuck going to law firms or other external consultancy, and the small and medium-sized firms are maybe not going to have the budget to pay $1,100 an hour.' Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet For certain suspected violations like those made by mistake, Shapiro said it doesn't make economic sense for the DOJ to get involved. 'They don't have the manpower for it,' he said. But a new enforcement policy seems to fit the Trump administration's broader tariff agenda, he added. 'If you're going to have this tariff policy, you're going to have to take a more aggressive stance, because it's a huge ocean of imports, and it's very hard for customs to enforce against everyone.' Alexis Keenan is a legal reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow Alexis on X @alexiskweed. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Yahoo Finance Chartbook: 35 charts tell the story of markets and the economy midway through 2025
The US stock market has not only survived one of the most hectic starts to a trading year on record — it's thriving. After falling 19% in a matter of weeks earlier this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is back at record highs, but a sense of unease about the status of this rally persists. There's the perpetual debate about stock valuations, which are historically elevated, as the stability of the artificial intelligence growth story remains in question for some investors. The potential fallout from President Trump's tariff and immigration policies — and their impact on US economic growth — has emerged as the top concern among economists who are still questioning the resilience of the US economy. But the fifth volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook also presents a calming explanation for why stocks have inflected higher in a V-shaped pattern after April brought one of the worst three-day stretches since World War II. Corporate profit expectations are picking up, particularly in areas that have been bid up the most in the market. By some measures, the US consumer remains in solid shape. And even after a roaring rally, several strategists argue investor sentiment is far from peaking. Trump has also dialed up the pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, but this edition of the Chartbook shows the central bank taking less of a starring role in this market moment. When and how the central bank adjusts its policy seems a less pressing question than what has prompted stocks to climb this year's wall of worry and what forces could prompt investors to keep climbing. Debating stocks at record highs | Another economic turning point | A shifting investing landscapeThe following commentary has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Debating stocks at record highs Mike Wilson, chief investment officer, Morgan Stanley "[This] chart shows the earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500. It leads actual earnings estimates, and as you can see, we are currently experiencing one of the strongest V-shaped recoveries in history, rivaling the COVID rebound in 2020, the last time we were so out of consensus on the market. Many market participants do not appreciate how strong this very fundamental driver has been over the past several months, which helps to not only justify the rally to date, but also why we remain bullish on the next 6-12 months." Ben Snider, senior equity strategist, Goldman Sachs "Despite the recent new record highs notched by the S&P 500, investor positioning data show no sign of exuberance. The GS Equity Sentiment Indicator combines nine measures of positioning in US stocks across investor groups, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail investors. Today, the indicator stands at a 0, reflecting a neutral stance in US stocks on average across investors. While valuation multiples sit at elevated levels relative to history, constrained positioning indicates room for the recent equity rally to continue." Binky Chadha, chief global strategist, Deutsche Bank "While equity markets have recovered completely from their Liberation Day sell-off, equity positioning is only back up to neutral. Equity positioning tends to align with earnings growth but is currently still below what we expect for Q2 and we look for a typical earnings season rally. Both the company analyst consensus and DB forecasts see earnings growth dipping in Q3 as the full impact of tariffs hit, before picking up again. Our outlook out to year-end sees a rise in equity positioning as one of the drivers of further upside for equity prices." Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy, Barclays "Heading into 2Q25 earnings season, Big Tech is once again trading at ~29x [forward earnings]. ... While this seems high at first take, the group is still trading ~2 turns below where it started the year because Big Tech is one of the only segments of the S&P 500 where an improved YTD earnings outlook is available at a better YTD price. US equity upside has broadened in 2025 — the percentage of SPX constituents beating the index has risen to the highest level in about 2 years — but most of these gains have been fueled by multiple expansion. Big Tech is the rare exception. ... With [the second quarter of 2025] poised to be the first quarter to see material impacts from incremental tariffs, Big Tech retains an outsized role in keeping overall SPX performance healthy, and we believe the group is well-positioned to do so." Read more: Live coverage of corporate earnings Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, Stifel "While it's absolutely true Big Tech is much more profitable than the late-1990s Bubble, … the over-valuation is the same." Tom Lee, head of research, Fundstrat "Over the past five years, the market has survived six black swan events. If this were a company that had survived six near-extinction events and continued to prosper, its stock would be assigned a higher multiple. However, the equal-weight S&P 500 P/E has actually declined from 17.6x (pre-COVID) to the current 16.9x. If the market is truly indestructible, there's still plenty of room for multiples to rise." Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall, BofA Securities equity and quant strategy "While the S&P 500 screens as statistically expensive on most valuation metrics we track, comparing today's multiple to prior cycles is apples to oranges, in our view, given the mix shift within the index. The S&P 500 has shifted from low-margin, asset- and labor-intensive industries (70% manufacturing in 1980) to high-margin, innovation-oriented industries (50% of the index today)." Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer, Truist "A key question for the second half of the year is whether market leadership will broaden. Small- and mid-cap stocks remain well below prior highs, partly due to weaker earnings. A shift would likely require both economic improvement and broader earnings growth. Until trends improve, we continue to favor large-cap equities with a growth tilt." Citi equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert "This reporting season is critical for Small/Mid Cap and more cyclical sectors as earnings growth has been paltry for more than two years. However, Wall Street analysts have continued to model an uplift in fundamentals only to be continually disappointed. Good results this quarter and conviction in forward estimates are critical for investors to believe the return to positive EPS growth is near and for US stock market performance to broaden." Richard Bernstein, CEO, Richard Bernstein Advisors "Several points are worth noting in this chart: Nasdaq surges ahead of Dow Jones Utilities only during more speculative periods and bubbles. Utilities have underperformed Nasdaq by less than 65bp/year, even when including the current speculative Magnificent 7/AI period. Because such a large proportion of return comes from dividends, Utilities have achieved their returns with considerably lower volatility and beta. The DJ Utilities Index has a beta of only 0.5 to the Nasdaq during the 50+ year period, implying its risk-adjusted returns are superior to those of Nasdaq." Max Grinacoff, head of US equity derivatives, UBS "Valuations continue to price in AI-led 'profitability exceptionalism.' The US [equity market] is clearly 'expensive' to bonds unless growth expectations are met." Callie Cox, chief markets strategist, Ritholtz Wealth Management "Right now, investors are giving AI the benefit of the doubt. Tech may be the most globally exposed sector of the S&P 500, yet people are willing to pay above-average multiples for the piece of what's shaping up to be a compelling story for the next decade. "The issue here is that the AI trade works until it doesn't ... We're not in a recession yet, but tariffs and a host of other pressures could cause the job market to buckle. Tech's expectations are exceptionally high, and reality may involve a steep drop in market value. This is why portfolio balance is so important — you're implicitly correcting the big imbalance between stock performances for your own investments." Nicole Inui, head of US and Latin America strategy, HSBC "Market breadth (% of companies outperforming the S&P 500) is getting narrower and hitting low points more often. This pattern of concentrated market performance was also seen in the late nineties and early 2000s. Back then, the S&P 500 tended to correct following points of narrow market breadth over the near term. However, in recent years, the market has rallied even as market breadth narrows, [a] testament to the quality of the large-cap stocks leading the rally." Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, Charles Schwab "A lot is made of the 'cash on the sidelines' story when observing assets in money market funds; however, as a share of total equity market value, it's significantly more subdued." Sam Ro, editor, TKer "Over 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods, the S&P 500 on average has generated positive returns. But as this data from JPMorgan Asset Management shows, investing specifically at all-time highs has actually generated higher average returns over these time horizons." Another economic turning point Greg Daco, chief economist, EY "We estimate that roughly a quarter of the monthly CPI advance in June can be attributed to a tariff-induced impulse. Prices for household equipment and furnishings, appliances, window and floor coverings, and toys experienced their largest gains since the early 2020s, while prices for computers, audio and video equipment, and apparel posted notable gains. "As of June, the average tariff rate was 15%, yet effective customs duties imply a realized rate closer to 10.1%. Strategies used by companies to avoid passing on cost increases to consumers — inventory front-loading, using bonded warehouses and foreign trade zones, reducing margins — are not eternal. As such, we should expect a muggy inflation summer." David Mericle, chief US economist, Goldman Sachs "We estimate that tariffs have boosted consumer prices by 0.2% cumulatively so far but think that the largest effects are still ahead of us. Tariff effects are likely to push core inflation back above 3% over the next year, despite an underlying trend that we see as steadily moving back to 2%. We expect tariffs to have only a one-time effect on the price level rather than igniting persistent high inflation and consequently expect inflation to resume its decline toward 2% down the road as the tariff effects drop out of the year-over-year calculation." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Michael Reid, chief economist, RBC Capital Markets "This chart looks at the relationship between wages and profits and their respective shares of GVA [gross value added] (i.e., the contribution to GDP). This is an important relationship because wages represent the largest share of GVA, which has fallen below 50% for most of the last decade. At the same time, profits' share increased to all-time highs. Our concern is that tariffs will start to add pressure to margins (i.e., corporate profits will be squeezed if businesses absorb some of the tariffs and/or we see demand destruction). The result will likely be cost-cutting in the wages space (i.e., layoffs) to bolster profits." Mark Zandi, chief US economist, Moody's "Labor force growth is slumping. Given the new population controls, measuring labor force growth is tricky, but by my calculation, it's at a standstill. Behind this are the severe restrictions on immigration. This time last year, the foreign-born labor force was growing 5%. It's now declining. The native-born labor force remains moribund. The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices. The economy's real potential GDP growth — that pace of growth consistent with stable inflation — is also lower. It is currently closer to 1% than the 2% we have come to think of as typical. Think of what this means for everything from asset returns to our already dire fiscal outlook." Thomas Ryan, North America economist, Capital Economics "After curbing unauthorised immigration at the Southwest border, the Trump administration is now steadily increasing detentions and deportations. This crackdown is starting to impact labour supply: The foreign-born share of the labour force fell to 19.1% in June, down from a peak of 19.8% in March. That marks a decline of over 1 million people, at least partly due to stepped-up ICE enforcement. A recent large boost to ICE's budget in the One Big Beautiful Act suggests this trend will persist, keeping unemployment low even as job growth slows. That, in turn, supports our expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year." Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist, Oxford Economics "Foreign-born workers made a huge contribution to labor force growth as the US emerged from the pandemic, helping to restore balance to the labor market and ease wage and inflation pressures. ... We think the trend will come to an end, however. The foreign-born share of the labor force declined in the second quarter of 2025. The labor force data for foreign-born workers can be noisy, so we shouldn't read too much into one quarter of data. Also, foreign-born workers typically don't enter the labor market immediately upon arriving in the US, so there still may be some growth related to those who arrived over the past few years. But we expect the Trump administration's immigration and deportation policies to result in a much lower pace of immigration over the next few years than we previously anticipated, and before too long, that will translate into slower growth in the foreign-born share of the labor force." Aditya Bhave, head of US economics, BofA Securities "Going forward, we think tighter immigration policy restrictions will reduce the breakeven pace of employment growth to about 70k (from 125k currently) for the next two years as the immigration supply shock plays out. Hence, we expect the [unemployment] rate to rise modestly, reaching 4.4% in 4Q 2025 and peaking at 4.5% in 1Q-3Q 2026 despite payrolls slowing down to 50k in [the second half of 2025] & 70k in 2026. Chair Powell has argued that the Fed's job is to manage aggregate demand in a manner that meets aggregate supply 'where it's at.' So, with the u-rate rising gradually in our forecast and core PCE inflation likely to reach 3% over the summer, we don't think the Fed will be able to cut rates this year." Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist, Carson Group "Household balance sheets are as in as good a shape as ever, with lower liabilities and higher asset values as a percent of disposable income. Two big reasons driving this are rising home prices and surging stock prices over the last 5 years. This likely says households are in very solid shape as we head into [the second half of 2025]." Thomas Simons, chief US economist, Jefferies "The Philly Fed's survey on consumer credit conditions increased from 31.7% in Q4 2019 to almost 36.7% in mid-Q2 2021. Obviously, this is one of the consequences of the COVID stimulus checks and the forbearance on student loans, and it might be easy to dismiss the surge as temporary and insignificant in the long run. However, the share has since come down to about 35.4%, which [is] off the highs but still well above levels that we were used to before the pandemic. The same Philly Fed survey reports that there are 584 million open accounts, so the increase to 35.4% paying their full balance from 31.7% means that households have 21.6 million fewer open accounts accumulating interest charges. This is a key step on the way to being able to save money and accumulate wealth; a much more optimistic story than what we hear most of the time when it comes to consumer credit these days." Wells Fargo Economics team led by Jay Bryson "There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark. Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter. With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays. In May, real discretionary services spending fell 0.3% year-over-year. While that is a modest contraction, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions over the past 60+ years." Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist, Deutsche Bank "One big question at the Fed and fiscal nexus has been whether removing Chair Powell would reduce fiscal costs for the Federal government. In a recent note, we used last week's headlines around President Trump being ready to fire Powell as an event study to answer this question. Taking market moves around these news reports (i.e., a significant twist steepening of the curve) at face value, we find that the cost savings from lower front-end yields would be largely offset by higher long-term yields. Specifically, the Treasury would only save $12-15bn through 2027 if the President fired Powell, even if Treasury delayed coupon increases to skew more issuance towards bills." Liz Everett Krisberg, head of Bank of America Institute "There are several signs that rising costs of living are putting financial pressure on some younger consumers. Looking at Bank of America credit card data on households with a revolving balance, Millennials have seen the largest rise in their utilization rate. However, the good news is that their rates appear to have stabilized over the past year and a half." A shifting investing landscape Campbell Harvey, economist, Duke University "Passive investing has overtaken active investing and shows no sign of slowing down. There are risks to passive investing. Passive investing buys based on only one [criterion] — market capitalization. There is no price discovery. Passive investing does not care if the stock is under- or overvalued. Further, because all stocks are bought or purchased at the same time, this increases correlations, thereby reducing diversification benefits and, at the same time, increases systemic risk — in a crisis, all stocks are dumped at the same time." Read more here. Todd Sohn, technical strategist, Strategas "Defensive sectors are disappearing within the S&P 500 as it becomes more dominated by Tech. Heck, Nvidia is almost the size of Healthcare now! So, investors need to think differently about how to defend and diversify a portfolio at this stage, given the overexposure to large-cap Growth. That's still the core and key player in almost any portfolio, but perhaps look outside the equity box for strategies that can be a shock absorber in volatile environments." Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, BNP Paribas Asset Management "Most investors are aware of the dominance of technology shares in the US equity market. This phenomenon began in the 1990s with the arrival of the internet, received a big boost during COVID lockdowns, and has accelerated further with the onset of AI. Tariffs provide another reason for the sector to dominate. While tariffs may not help the sector, they hurt it less than others in the market due to the higher share of services revenue versus goods. "Investors may not be aware, however, of how dominant technology has been in emerging markets. Since 2008, emerging market technology stocks have outperformed the rest of emerging markets by nearly 500%, compared to a 350% outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 index versus the Russell Value. For the rest of developed market equities (primarily Europe and Japan), technology has underperformed. This is not to suggest these indices have not risen, but just that the factors driving the performance are different." Gabriela Santos, chief strategist for the Americas, JPMorgan Asset Management "This chart shows how this year's outperformance of 1,200bps by international stocks may have caught some investors by surprise — but it's a long time coming and just the start. It's a combination of 'push and pull': expensive U.S. valuations pushing investors to diversify and a pull from the rest of the world due to less earnings dispersion. Earnings in the Eurozone, Japan, and pockets of EM have been keeping up with or beating U.S. earnings this cycle, powered by the end of deflation and negative interest rates, a new focus on shareholder returns, and now further turbocharged by fiscal spending. It's not about a global rotation due to the 'end of U.S. exceptionalism' altogether — it's about a 'normalization of U.S. exceptionalism' from near record valuations and weights in portfolios.' Steve Sosnick, chief strategist, Interactive Brokers "While the S&P 500 has put in a nice performance since each of those dates, it has, of course, lagged the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But it has also underperformed other global indices. Among major indices, the DAX and Hang Seng have been the biggest winners, while the FTSE and STOXX 50 have generally kept pace with the SPX. Considering that the dollar has fallen against the Euro and Pound, that improves the relative returns of European markets for US-based investors. While past performance is no guarantee of future results — of course — the recent performance of various non-US markets should remind investors that there are plenty of opportunities outside our borders." Jay Jacobs, head of equity ETFs, BlackRock "Looking at the world through a thematic lens has become a more effective way of trying to digest what's happening and capture return opportunities than looking at it through a traditional sector lens. If you took a very traditional sector-based approach to the world since the beginning of the year, you might see geopolitical fragmentation and some economic uncertainty resulting in a consumer pullback, [so] that you would shift from consumer discretionary into consumer staples. And indeed, ... consumer staples have outperformed consumer discretionary, but it hasn't really fully explained what's going on because one of the challenges is that consumer staples [has] a highly globally integrated supply chain. So if you're concerned about supply chains or tariff risk or other disruptions, consumer staples doesn't offer that much protection." Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Charles Schwab "This chart shows ten-year Treasury yields and the broad-based Bloomberg Dollar Index. We are watching the divergence in trend between yields and the dollar. Typically, trends in interest rates and the dollar are correlated with high and/or rising yields, leading to dollar strength. However, since April, when the U.S. tariff policy was announced, the dollar has fallen sharply while yields have trended sideways. It suggests that global investors are expressing concerns about U.S. policy by moving out of dollars and/or anticipate policies to weaken the dollar. It could be a structural change that means U.S. yields will remain higher for longer than anticipated, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this fall. Foreign investors may be more cautious about holding dollar-denominated assets in the current environment. If that continues, it would have a significant impact on the cost of financing the deficit, inflation, and interest rates." Robert Sockin, global economist, Citi "Fiscal performance is challenged in many countries around the world. Countries including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan, India, China, and Brazil are expected to run large fiscal deficits even though their debt levels are already high. Italy, Spain, and Canada, meanwhile, are expected to run somewhat more modest deficits, although their debt levels remain elevated. "There is no clearly defined limit for how high debt can go that can be identified in advance. The US and many other indebted countries successfully issue significant quantities of government securities. Still, while markets have shown patience with high levels of indebtedness, we judge that this patience has limits. We saw one example of this in the UK during the fall of 2022 when proposed tax cuts set off a crisis of market confidence. "It strikes us as imprudent to experiment with the limits of market patience, but governments in several major countries nevertheless seem inclined to do exactly that." This project would not be possible without the work of Yahoo Finance Senior Editor Brent Sanchez, who turned Wall Street jargon into a digestible visual presentation of the current market moment. And a special thanks to Yahoo Finance's team of editors who worked on this project, including Myles Udland, David Foster, Nina Moothedath, Adriana Belmonte, Grace O'Donnell, and Brett LoGiurato. Most of all, thank you to all of the experts who contributed their time and thought to this project and helped make this Chartbook such a valuable snapshot in economic time. Josh Schafer is a senior markets reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Have thoughts on volume five of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook or have a specific question about markets or the economy you'd like to see a Chartbook for? Email him at Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trending tickers: latest investor updates on Nvidia, Sarepta, Spotify, AstraZeneca and Greggs
Nvidia (NVDA) Shares in the AI darling were trending in pre-market trading after finishing Monday's session almost 2% higher as retail investors remain bullish on the stock. The renewed optimism can be traced to growing expectations that the US may extend its trade truce with China by another 90 days. The original announcement has been a boon for Nvidia, whose fortunes have been closely tied to the evolving US-China trade relations. Earlier this month, in a pivotal move, the Trump administration reversed an earlier decision by lifting a ban imposed in April and allowing Nvidia to resume sales of its H20 GPUs to China. This decision, combined with reports of rising demand for Nvidia's AI chips, has provided support to the company's stock price. Amid increasing demand, Nvidia has reportedly placed an order for 300,000 H20 AI chips with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM). This new order adds to Nvidia's existing inventory of between 600,000 and 700,000 chips. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Markets higher as attention turns to slew of earnings reports Nvidia's H20 chip, which was designed specifically for the Chinese market, complies with US export restrictions and is less powerful than its more advanced AI models like the H100 or the Blackwell series. Sarepta (SRPT) Shares of Sarepta, a developer of gene therapies for rare diseases, jumped over 50% ahead of the US opening bell, after closing 16% higher on Monday, as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave it the go-ahead to resume shipments of its key vaccine. The company's stock had taken a hit last week after the death of an 8-year-old boy in Brazil. In response, Sarepta paused shipments of Elevidys for ambulatory Duchenne's muscular dystrophy patients, allowing the FDA time to review safety data. However, after the FDA communicated its decision to lift the voluntary pause on shipments, Sarepta's stock saw a sharp rebound in pre-market rading. Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai commented on the FDA's decision, saying it "significantly improves Elevidys' sales outlook in the near term." He added that "[Wall] Street will feel relieved about the situation." While the FDA's decision allows shipments to resume for ambulatory patients, the agency has indicated that Sarepta will need to provide additional safety study data before Elevidys can be used for older, non-ambulatory patients. The FDA said in a statement it "will continue to work with the sponsor regarding non-ambulatory patients, which remains subject to a voluntary hold, following two deaths." Spotify (SPOT) Shares in Spotify were down slightly on Tuesday as the music streaming giant prepares to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings before the US market opens. Analysts polled by Zacks expect Spotify to post $4.9bn in revenue for the quarter, reflecting a 20.3% increase year-on-year. Earnings are projected at $2.19 per share, representing a 53.2% jump from the same period a year earlier. Investor sentiment has been buoyed by a combination of strong subscription growth, price increases, and a streamlined cost structure. Shares have risen approximately 120% over the past 12 months, rebounding sharply from 2022 lows, as enthusiasm builds around Spotify's potential in AI-powered content recommendations and advertising innovation. Earlier this month, the stock reached an all-time high of $738.45, although it has since pulled back slightly. Read more: Barclays posts profit beat and announces £1bn share buyback Last week, Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein upgraded his rating on Spotify from "perform" to "outperform", assigning a price target of $800. 'We believe that SPOT will benefit from the secular tailwind of growing digital audio streaming adoption and that the company's subscription economics are better than most believe,' Helfstein wrote in a note to clients. AstraZeneca (AZN.L) Shares in AstraZeneca rose in London trading on Tuesday after the UK's largest listed company by market value reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. The pharmaceutical group posted an 11% rise in revenues to $14.46bn for the three months to the end of June, surpassing analyst expectations of $14.15bn, according to a company-compiled consensus. Core earnings per share came in at $2.17, just above forecasts of $2.16. "Our strong momentum in revenue growth continued through the first half of the year and the delivery from our broad and diverse pipeline has been excellent," CEO Pascal Soriot said in a statement. Pre-tax profit for the period rose to $3.1bn from $2.4bn a year earlier, as AstraZeneca saw strong performance across key therapeutic areas, including an 18% rise in oncology sales. The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) drugmaker, which derives 44% of its revenue from the US, is also ramping up investment in the country. Last week, it pledged to invest $50bn in the US by 2030, joining a wave of multinational pharmaceutical firms positioning themselves ahead of the potential imposition of tariffs on the sector by US president Donald Trump. Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: 'AstraZeneca continues to deliver strong growth, with its second quarter results showing solid rises in product sales, up 10% overall. "This was primarily driven by 18% growth seen from the oncology portfolio, which has done well as a result of key drugs such as Imfinzi, Tagrisso and Enhertu. The group shows no sign of slowing down either with research and development spend increasing 18% in the quarter. Read more: Stocks to watch this week: Microsoft, Apple, Shell, AstraZeneca and HSBC 'For now, 2025's guidance has been reiterated with sales expected to increase by high single-digits and core earnings to grow by low double-digits. This remains a catalyst-rich period for the group with multiple positive phase III readouts and drug approvals in 2025 to date. "The main pipeline update included in the results is the Avanzar lung cancer trial readout, which is now expected in the first half of 2026, rather than later this year as was expected. However, the long-term outlook remains attractive with the group making progress towards its target of $80bn in total revenue by 2030.' Greggs (GRG.L) Shares were down by 3% as Greggs reported a 14% drop in pre-tax profit for the first half of the year, as winter storms and summer heatwaves kept customers away from its high street shops, adding to an already challenging consumer environment. The bakery chain, known for its sausage rolls and steak bakes, said profits fell to £63.5m in the six months to the end of June, down from £74.1m a year earlier. While total sales rose 7% to £1.03bn, the increase was not enough to offset a decline in margins and footfall. Company-managed shop like-for-like sales rose 2.6%, while franchised locations grew 4.8%. Greggs, which operates more than 2,600 stores across the UK, said the decline in profits 'reflected challenging market footfall and the phasing of cost headwinds that have particularly impacted the first half of the year.' 'These challenges were compounded by heavy snow and strong winds in January and unusually hot weather in June, which had a material impact on consumer behaviour and lowered like-for-like sales,' the company said. More than 200 shops in Scotland and Wales were temporarily closed during Storm Éowyn in late January, when a rare red warning was issued due to hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, and snow. Cost inflation was also a factor, with overall cost pressures running at 5.4% in the first half. Full-year cost inflation is expected to be around 6%. Greggs spent £3m on expanding manufacturing, logistics, and technology capabilities, and completed 108 shop refurbishments, up from 81 a year earlier. Chief executive Roisin Currie described the first half as a 'challenging market' with weak consumer confidence. 'People are saving, not spending,' she said. The interim dividend was held steady at 19p. While full-year sales are expected to remain resilient, profits are forecast to come in 'modestly below the level achieved in 2024.' Mark Crouch, market analyst at eToro, said: 'Greggs' 14% drop in first-half profit caps a bitter 10 months for the UKs favourite baker. "Management blames hot weather for weaker sales, but that doesn't account for a 50% collapse in market value. The more plausible culprit is the timing of Greggs expansion strategy, stretching margins, just as the consumer picture turns more fragile. 'Greggs has long been a reliable read on the UK high street. Its sudden stumble suggests consumers may not just be cooling on sausage rolls, but that appetite across the high street may be waning more broadly. "With inflation easing and real wages recovering, the macro backdrop should, in theory, be supportive. That it isn't showing up in Greggs' numbers, is a red flag. 'Greggs' brand still holds a strong place in the market, but scale isn't helping if margins and volumes can't keep up. The pressure is now squarely on management to regain the initiative, and not just blame it on the weather.'